In a war over Taiwan, I'm not sure we have any idea what defeating China means.
Chairman of the JCS Brown is confident America would defeat China in a war over the fate of Taiwan:
The U.S. fields the most powerful army in the world and would defeat China if war breaks out over Taiwan, according to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
I appreciate his confidence. And the reference to the Army in this context is interesting.
But as I always say (and boy does that habit annoy people), please define your terms. Because I fear Brown doesn't define "defeat" accurately:
As I noted in that post of mine cited initially, which addressed initial reports of the CSIS simulations, China's definition of winning may be different than our definition. I argued that position in Military Review.
Basically, if CSIS can project a Chinese victory months after the simulation ends in the "Chinese victory" measure, you have to speculate about years after the simulation ends.
In any of the stalemate scenarios, I believe the result should be coded as a Chinese victory. Given the high American casualties predicted, raise your hand if you think America will support a fight to drive the nuclear-armed Chinese into the sea--even in the "stalemate, trending against China" measure--when Taiwan continuing as a political entity in the short run can be defined as victory. Or at least defined as not a defeat.
I think China holding a significant bridgehead regardless of the trend signifies a Chinese victory. Eventually a ceasefire will take hold, whether or not it is official. And then China will build up its forces on Taiwan for months or years until it can resume the invasion. Or until the threat of a resumed overland invasion undermines Taiwan's resolve to resist their giant neighbor.
"Ending" the war with PLA troops holding bridgeheads on Taiwan is not peace. It is China reloading.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
