This is interesting:
The endgame may have changed too. "Nobody is now talking about the control of the regime over all of Syria, they talk about the ability of the regime to continue."
Until recently, the Lebanese politician said, people asked daily who would defect next. But for some time now there had been no significant military defections.
"The fighting nerve is steady. The Iranians and the Russians may have helped them. Their ability to manage daily and control the situation has improved."
The government has decided to focus its effort on essential areas - the capital Damascus, the second largest city of Aleppo, and the main highways and roads.
The regime must continue but nobody is talking about holding all of Syria. That sums up the decision I've long argued Assad must make.
I think holding Aleppo and Damascus is beyond Assad's capabilities. I'm not even sure if Assad can hold just Damascus at this point, given the distance from the Alawite coastal areas and the erosion of Assad's military power. Talk of holding the main roads--unless they are talking about just the main roads linking Damascus to Aleppo--simply gets Assad to the assessment that I made in early January. But Assad's power has eroded considerably since then.
But a retreat from the far corners of Syria must take place to some line.
Now we have to figure out what Assad's allies require Assad to hold in that smaller realm.
Russia needs the coast for their navy. If Russia is to be a player in the Middle East, they want a Mediterranean presence. That's not a problem. A smaller Syria starts with the Alawite-dominated coastal areas. And with no new regime defections, Russia has some confidence that Assad's regime can continue even if it is a smaller realm.
The problem is Iran. Iran needs Syria as a conduit to Lebanon and as a springboard to threaten Israel. Will Iran support a smaller Syria that doesn't control all of the land border with Lebanon outside of Israel's common border? Will Iran support a smaller Syria that doesn't have a direct border with Israel?
I have to believe that even after deciding on focusing on regime survival rather than holding the entire country, Syria is torn between the need for Iranian and Russian support. Iran needs a larger Syria than Iran does. But can Assad count on Russia for more and continuing support if Assad retreats to a border that makes Assad less useful to Iran? Assad would rather have at least two patrons to play against each other.
A lot of negotiating must be going on. Where will Assad draw his new border?
