Wednesday, October 17, 2012

We Shall Return

The Philippines is acting on what I figured claimants to the islands in the South China Sea must do in light of China's aggressive claims to the entire sea--occupy what they claim before China can use their growing land power to grab territory and dare the small states to do something about it.

From my Jane's email updates:

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) have downplayed the transfer of marines to one of the disputed Spratly Islands after the regional commander announced the deployment of two battalions. Western Command (WESCOM) commander Lieutenant General Juancho Sabban said on 1 October that two marine battalions of about 800 troops had been deployed to the western island province of Palawan "to defend the disputed territories in the West Philippine Sea [South China Sea]"[.]

One reason the Philippines can afford to push back against China is that they can see we are right there with them:

U.S. and Philippine officials recently confirmed that Subic Bay – a natural harbor 80 km north of Manila that was the US 7th Fleet’s home until 1992 – is going to be playing a much larger role in U.S. Pacific Fleet deployments from now on.

The former U.S. naval port and its air station, now known as Subic Bay Freeport Zone, is set to host U.S. ships, marines and aircraft on a semi-permanent basis.

We certainly don't want to get in a shooting war with China over any islands. But we don't want China to get away with claiming virtually the entire South China Sea and declaring it off limits to our Navy by asserting it is all territorial water of China.

We do have some credibility built up with the Philippines.

UPDATE: Other countries had best hurry up and occupy and fortify their claims:

The Chinese government, in an attempt to press claims of sovereignty over thousands of small islands and islets, is giving them official names, according to the state news agency Xinhua.

China has already given names to 1,660 islands and islets and plans to name an additional 1,664 by August of next year, according to the Xinhua report. Provincial authorities are also working on a local island census and will compile information with names and locations of the islands and islets by the end of April 2013.

China counts more than 7,300 islands and islets measuring 500 square meters or larger, the report said.

Naming islands isn't anywhere nearly as effective as governing or occupying islands. But it is more than nothing. And China may figure their power will give them the leverage they need to use mere names to settle the question of ownership.

Before China can develop a navy and amphibious force to really contest the region in the face of American opposition, the claimants to these islands had best start putting boots on the ground 24/7 where they can.