Iraq suffered about 120,000 dead in the years of war from 2003 to 2011, when US forces left Iraq. Opponents of the Iraq War continue to insist that "disbanding" the Iraqi army and de-Baathification of Iraq were mistakes that contributed to warfare when we could have precluded insurgencies by keeping the Baathists (who murdered and abused the rest of the Iraqi population) in positions of power.
Stratfor, in a piece on the difficulties Turkey is in given the problem of Turkey and Turkey's ambitions, puts it succintly:
Neither the states trying to retain influence in Syria, like Iran and Russia, nor the states trying to force a political transformation in the Levant, like Turkey, the United States, Saudi Arabia, France and Qatar, are prepared to weather the consequences of debaathification, which would dismantle the state machinery, sideline the Alawite minority and plunge the country more deeply into civil war. A growing consensus centered on removing the al Assads while largely maintaining the regime has created an opportunity for dialogue between the United States and Turkey on one side and Russia and Iran on the other. Tehran and Moscow have used the monthslong stalemate in the Syrian conflict to edge their way into discussions over a post-al Assad government. The Russians and Iranians have positioned themselves for a possible agreement that facilitates an exit for the al Assads while requiring a prominent space for the Alawites in a new government, something that would preserve Russian and Iranian influence in Syria.
Already, 30,000 Syrians may have died in the uprising. In what world will the Sunni majority consider it acceptable that the Alawite minority retain positions of power in Syria after decades of exploitation and months of brutal killing and suppression?
The body count is likely to be much higher in the long run than in Iraq, and the prospects of getting some form of real democracy much lower than in Iraq.
People like to say that Bush screwed up Iraq. We may have something to compare those results to if those big-brained strategists who want to wage war on Assad without defeating his forces are allowed to try out their theory of "nobody-wins and nobody loses" in Syria.
I'm sure the administration plan will be awesome.
