Thursday, March 17, 2011

More Than No-Fly

The situation on the ground in Libya appears to be that loyalist forces are attacking Benghazi in the rebel heartland; are fighting with rebels over Ajdabiya on the supply route from the loyalist heartland into the rebel-held area--but the loyalists have cleared a road through the city to push up to Benghazi; and loyalists are attacking rebel-held Misrata in the west.

Meanwhile, the UN Security Council authorized not a no-fly zone, which has been discussed the last several weeks, but authorization to launch air and naval strikes against Khaddafi's forces, it seems, to stop his forces. That is a big freaking deal.

If Western special forces get on the ground to guide those strikes, rebels could succeed in a counter-attack at Ajdabiya to seal off the loyalist spearheads up at Benghazi; devastate the loyalist attackers outside Benghazi; and support rebel defenders in Misrata. Further, attacks could savage the coastal highway supply line for the loyalists.

A no-fly zone would have been pointless. If we and allies commit forces to this operation, the rebels will survive the loyalist onslaught. Of course, perhaps I'm reading this wrong and all we will do is launch attacks to ground the Libyan air force. If that is so, the loyalists can go about their business.

UPDATE: I am confused. The resolution explicitly rules out a ground invasion to deal with Khaddafi, but you can have troops on the ground well short of an offensive, I'd say. Air strikes on loyalist ground units, for example, would really need at least special forces on the ground amongst the rebels to call in the air and missile strikes. What I read suggests we'll launch attacks on Libyan ground forces, but I don't recall any discussion in Congress or by our administration of this level of intervention. Are we being--dare I suggest it?--lied into war? Or is this just a pointless no-fly zone mission as has been discussed the last several weeks? Perhaps it will all be clear when I wake up in the morning.

Oh, and if intervening is the moral thing to do, why did we need to wait for a 10-vote Security Council motion to do it?

UPDATE: I'm not clear about what loyalist forces are attacking near Benghazi. At least aircraft are attacking. If any ground forces are that far north, they'd just be scouts, it seems.

UPDATE: To be clear, I'm not suggesting that President Obama has lied us into a military conflict of choice with a bait and switch of talking no-fly zone and then implementing attacks on whatever targets we say are necessary to destroy in order to protect civilians. But if President George W. Bush had done something like that, that's all we'd be hearing from the progressive community.