Libyan rebels regained control of the eastern gateway city of Ajdabiya on Saturday after international airstrikes crippled Moammar Gadhafi's forces, in the first major turnaround for an uprising that once appeared on the verge of defeat.
The rebels need the city to block loyalist advances east to either attack Benghazi or to cut them off from their oil or the outside world.
The rebels still need to do some work to protect Ajdabiya from ground attack, however, as I wrote early in the war (a whole 3 weeks ago!). The rebels need to advance at least to Burayqah (Brega) and preferably to Uqaylah on the coast and Maradah inland from that town. For now, while NATO forces are willing to strike Khaddafi's ground forces, this defensive screen isn't as important. But if the UN imposes a ceasefire that leaves Khaddafi in power, it will be important to hold this terrain to prepare for a long civil war or just to survive as a separate entity.
As near as I can tell, the loyalists probably can't really make a stand until they get back to the city of Sirte (population of about 135,000). Nothing between Ajdabiya and Sirte has the population to allow the loyalist defenders to hunker down near civilian targets to partly avoid coalition air power. So I'd expect the rebels to be able to push that far, although the rebels might have some short delays at smaller towns along the coast road.
This retreat will shake loyalist morale. Any defeat will do that, just as the NATO intervention was a defeat for the loyalists. Unless the loyalists start cracking and defecting or deserting, loyalist morale will recover given time and if they still think they could win (or at least fight to a draw). Loyalist morale would also rise if they can capture Misrata.
I wouldn't put too much into reports that Khaddafi's people are putting out feelers to the international community:
The U.S. ambassador to Libya says the government of Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi has been sending out feelers to potential mediators as the crisis in the country escalates. American envoy Gene Cretz, withdrawn from Libya late last year, says U.S. diplomatic recognition of the Libyan rebel movement is among options under study in Washington.
I'd do that if I was running the show. The Libyans want to call off the coalition planes, and offering hopes of negotiations could do that. The coalition is shaky enough as it is, only a week into the war. Remember, Saddam Hussein thought he'd get hammered by US-led forces in 2003 but figured we'd roll up to the outskirts of Baghdad, and then the Russians and French would engineer a UN ceasefire to keep him in power.
The Libyans should prepare for the day of a ceasefire by focusing on capturing Misrata and holding Sirte. Delaying actions between Sirte and Ajdabiya should be fought. If the loyalists can launch spoiling attacks (attacks designed not to advance, but to foul up rebel preparations for advances on them) as they fall back, that would bloody the noses of the rebels and buy time.
If Khaddafi can buy time, and just survives NATO intervention and new rebel success in the east, all things are possible. Drag out corpses from morgue freezers every few days to show to reporters as victims of NATO's campaign, and in a few months only Britain and America will be enforcing the no-fly-plus zone from aircraft carriers. And then we'll go home, too, leaving Khaddafi to focus one-on-one to reclaim eastern Libya.
But in the short term, Ajdabiya is a rebel success and an opportunity for them. It will be interesting to see how far west the rebels can advance before running into real resistance. I also wonder how long the mercenaries will show up when they are on the defensive.
