Sunday, March 20, 2011

The Sudden Stop?

As the saying goes, if you fall out of a window in a tall building, it's not the fall that gets you but the sudden stop. North Korea has been falling for a long time now. We just don't know when it will hit the ground. But North Korean elites are starting to worry that they can see the ground and want to cushion their fall:

Chinese merchants just across the border from North Korea are reporting an increase in high-value goods being sold by the North Korean elite. This includes the commemorative coins distributed to the elite on special occasions (like key anniversaries or rare occasions like the recent Meetings of the Delegates.) These coins contain some gold, but are valuable mainly because so few were produced. Some Chinese and North Korean traders, that regularly deal with the North Korean elite, are doing a lot of business with the few thousand families at the top of the food chain. Many of these families are selling off valuables, not because they are hungry, but because they want to move cash outside the country. This is a continuation of a trend that has been growing over the past few years, with wealthy families preparing to flee if the current government collapses.

And in an interesting twist to bureaucratic infighting over resources, government agencies in the north are actually stealing from each other and deploying armed guards to stop other agencies from stealing their stuff.

I know there's a lot going on in the world right now that we need to be involved in, from Japan's disaster response to the Middle East (with Libya added to the plate most obviously) to Afghanistan, but a sudden stop in North Korea would be an opportunity and not a disaster. When is it a good time, after all, to respond to and pay for the collapse of a criminal enterprise with gulags and a UN seat?

UPDATE: Oops. I added the Strategypage link.