The black dots are cities the rebels hold. In the east, the rebels hold the coastal areas as well. The rebels need to advance out of their coastal enclave to secure oil resources in the south and to block east-west roads that would allow Khaddafi loyalists to attack the rebel home turf. The rebels held off an attack at the western edge of their main enclave, but Khaddafi might eventually scrape up a sizable force to strike there.
I don't see how the rebels can offer any armed support to the rebel cities near Tripoli. At best, they could seize the Sirte coastal area and push out to support rebels east of Tripoli. But those to the west of the capital will live or die depending on whether Tripoli falls to the rebels or not. On the bright side for the rebels, efforts by Khaddafi to take the rebel areas close to Tripoli will tend to increase calls in the West to intervene on behalf of the rebels.
The map itself is from http://www.ezilon.com/maps/africa/libya-road-maps.html
Excuse the raggedy graphics. I'm learning.
UPDATE: The rebels are working on the oil aspect to finance a civil war, successfully sending out several tankers from Tobruk:
Two of the country’s largest oil fields, Sarir and Misla, remain connected to Tobruk through several hundred kilometres of pipeline under the control of forces opposed to Moammar Gadhafi. The opposition has shut off the supply from those fields to ports near the town of Surt, which remains loyal to the regime, diverting the oil to endless rows of storage tanks near Tobruk.
The rebels have also reinforced Burayqah:
Mutinous army units in pickup trucks armed with machine-guns and rocket launchers deployed around the strategic oil installation at Brega Thursday, securing the site after the opposition repelled an attempt by loyalists of Moammar Gadhafi to retake the port in rebel-held east Libya.
Government warplanes launched a new airstrike on the town in the morning, according to witnesses. It was not clear what they targeted, but it was likely an airstrip that belongs to the huge oil complex on the Mediterranean coast. There were no reports of casualties.
They managed to move troops (I use the term loosely) to reinforce a position, showing that they are more than static defenders.
The rebels should invest some money in hiring people to train those rebel civilian recruits and defecting soldiers.
Of course, at least one rebel's hopes for change are a couple years too late:
Opposition activists called for a no-fly zone, echoing a demand by Libya's deputy U.N. envoy, who now opposes Gaddafi.
"Bring Bush! Make a no fly zone, bomb the planes," shouted soldier-turned-rebel Nasr Ali, referring to a no-fly zone imposed on Iraq in 1991 by then President George Bush.
Gosh, it's like he isn't even worried about being "tainted" by getting American help! Not that I'm arguing that America should take the lead in a military intervention. As I've said, we're rather busy and the Europeans have lots of military capabilities sitting around in the barracks at home. But it is amusing that the Bush Iraq Outreach trumps the Obama Cairo Outreach when the rubber hits the road.
Although it would be funny if we sent the George H. W. Bush carrier group to reinforce 6th Fleet.
UPDATE: What a coincidence:
Another option would be to accelerate the deployment of the USS George H.W. Bush, set to sail in three weeks from Norfolk, Va., officials said.
That carrier group is needed if we really wanted to begin to put enough air power in the region for a no-fly zone.
UPDATE: The rebels pushed
But on the ground, events appeared to turn against Gaddafi, as rebels spearheading the unprecedented popular revolt pushed their frontline against government loyalists west of Brega, where they had repulsed an attack a day earlier.
The opposition fighters said troops loyal to Gaddafi had been driven back to Ras Lanuf, home to another major oil terminal and 600 km (375 miles) east of Tripoli.
This isn't quite an offensive. The rebels followed the loyalists who retreated to Ras Lanuf, and didn't try to take the location. Call me when the rebels take an objective from loyalist defenders.
