The graying bear is getting a make-over. Russia's military is launching its biggest rearmament effort since Soviet times, including a $650 billion program to procure 1,000 new helicopters, 600 combat planes, 100 warships, and 8 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.
Don't worry too much. Before we even ponder what that amount of money will get Russia, they haven't spent it yet. They've made annoucements before.
One, they've fallen so far over the last two decades that they have a lot of spending to do just to halt the decline in their conventional military and claw their way back up a bit. A thousand helicopters? Our Army alone has three times as many. One hundred warships? Most will be coastal, I'll bet. And our Navy will still be far stronger. And Russia has to face neighboring navies. Six hundred new combat aircraft? Our Marine Corps has nearly as many aircraft (not even including helicopters). Eight SSBN? Britain has 4. France has 4. We have 14.
Sure, smaller countries close to Russia have reason to worry. So we should worry a bit. But Russia won't be marching to the Rhine with these new forces nor will they be cutting off NATO's sea lines of communication between Europe and North America.
Two, it isn't exactly healthy that Russia relies so much on first use of nuclear weapons to defend their borders from invasion. I'd rather the Russians gain some ability to defend with conventional arms.
And three, a disproportionate amount of it is going east where the Chinese are the biggest threat:
Russia is spending about $700 billion during the next decade, to buy new military equipment. A disproportionate amount of the new stuff is being sent to the far east, to protect territories (most of the Russian Far East) that is claimed by China. Japan is also making noise about its claims on the South Kuril islands, but that is nothing compared to the amount of real estate China insists was stolen from them over the last few centuries. China has been quiet about these claims since the Cold War ended, but has not withdrawn them. China is also spending more on its military, although more of that new stuff is directed at the United States and India, not Russia.
And even if the Russians don't think of themselves as challenging China by deploying forces east, China will have no choice but to react to Russian forces out there by matching the Russians on their land front. And that reduces the resources China can put toward sea and air power directed out to sea where we and many of our allies are.
