Monday, March 14, 2011

Rumors of More

I've been fairly strident that we need to remain in Iraq after this year. We need the Iraqis to ask us, but our civilian-led presence planned for 2012 and beyond is not good enough. We need 25,000 American troops to have a presence capable of defending Iraq rather than being a mere tripwire. Strategypage has an intersting aside on this issue in this piece on Bahrain and Iran:

There are rumors in Washington that U.S. President Barack Obama has decided to slow down, halt or even reverse the withdrawal from Iraq. Rumors are merely rumors, but these make sense. Completing the withdrawal now would tilt the balance in Iraq to Iran, a strategic disaster.
I hope this rumor is true. I'm reasonably sure the Iraqi leaders want us to stay but are just trying to time their request to avoid problems with the Sadrists. What I didn't know was how President Obama felt about it. At the very least, leaving at the end of this year risks something bad happening during the 2012 campaign year that can be blamed on bugging out too soon.

We need to stay to invest the relatively trivial dollars and effort to secure what we've achieved already at such a high cost.

And once again, I remain amazed at how many of our problems would abate or disappear if the mullah regime in Iran was overthrown. Truly, Iran under the mullahs is a Gordian Knot that we spend too much time trying to figure out how to untie.

UPDATE: This says we are working on a contingency plan for up to 10,000 troops to remain in Iraq after this year (assuming Iraq and President Obama agree). I assume this means no combat brigades and probably no special forces, too. This is better than nothing, but I still want 25,000, including 3 combat brigades to train Iraqis and deter the Iranians, and special forces to help the Iraqis, plus support personnel.