Saturday, March 05, 2011

An Apparent First in Libya

Fighting continues in Libya. Khaddafi's forces briefly grabbed the center of Zawiyah but could not hold it:

By midafternoon, the rebels had reoccupied central Martyrs' Square while the pro-regime forces regrouped on the city's fringes, sealing off the city's entry and exit routes, the witnesses said.

"We will fight them on the streets and will never give up so long as Gadhafi is still in power," said one of the rebels, who also declined to be identified for the same reason.

But the loyalists are still trying, and it appears as if their pressure is getting heavier. I'd guess the loyalists eventually succeed:

Pro-Gadhafi forces on foot and firing artillery, mortars and other heavy weapons launched a new attack on Zawiya in late afternoon from the south and west, two other witnesses said by telephone.

Surprisingly, to me anyway, at first glance the rebels actually were the first to take an objective defended by the other side:

The anti-Gadhafi rebels fared better elsewhere, capturing the key oil port of Ras Lanouf on Friday night, their first military victory in a potentially long and arduous westward march from the east of the country to Tripoli.

Witnesses said Ras Lanouf, about 90 miles (140 kilometers) east of pro-Gadhafi Sirte, fell to rebel hands on Friday night after a fierce battle with pro-regime forces who later fled.

We'll see if they can hold this oil refining center. And the success will be less than it appears if there was a revolt of the people inside Ras Lanouf in support of the rebel attack. If that is the case, the success does not show that rebel units are capable of acting like real infantry to close with and destroy an enemy. They may have just moved in to occupy a city that revolted and scared the loyalist defenders away. I'm not clear about what happened other than that the loyalist defense collapsed quickly, within a few hours of being attacked. Hopefully, news clears this up.

The rebels will have more problem moving into the Sirte area of central Libya that appears to be a loyalist area. This still gives every indication that it could drag on for quite some time. Sirte's defenders would get a boost if the loyalists can finally take Zawiyah and then roll up Misrata to the east of Tripoli on the coast road to Sirte.

The article also notes that an arms depot near Benghazi blew up, which would seriously harm the ability of the rebels to sustain a war with resources on hand. Loyalist agents are suspected.

UPDATE: Misrata rebels say they are low on ammo and food:

Opposition forces said they remained in control but were being besieged by Gaddafi loyalists and were running low on food and ammunition.

I assume the same is true of Zawiyah rebels. I assume that if the loyalists can keep up the pressure on the two cities, the defenders will crack and run as they run out of ammo.