Wednesday, December 01, 2010

The Coming Storm

Are we preparing for the next fight in Iraq? We'd better be, because the next enemy is getting ready to fight us and our Iraqi allies:

IN SHALAMCHE, IRAQ Along this dusty border crossing that links Iraq with erstwhile enemy Iran, there is growing evidence that it is Iran that holds the upper hand at the twilight of the U.S. military mission here.

Weapons and Shiite militiamen continue to cross into Iraq along the poorly secured border, part of what U.S. military officials describe as an Iranian effort to keep proxy fighting forces in Iraq.

The flow faces little challenge from a poorly trained, ill-equipped Iraqi border police force that might be the weakest link in the security apparatus that the U.S. military intends to leave behind.

Supply shortfalls have hampered the Iraqi border force, which often has to make do with limited fuel for vehicles and generators. Spare parts for broken vehicles can take weeks or months to reach border outposts. Some of the guards' mismatched uniforms are so old that they still bear the flag of the previous regime.

We aren't unaware, of course:

U.S. officials have long worried that Iran shares that view.

"The Iranian government may sense that the drawdown of U.S. military forces in Iraq presents an opportunity to expand" the activities of that country's elite paramilitary, known as the Quds Force, a senior U.S. diplomat wrote in an April 2009 cable that was among those disclosed recently by the Web site WikiLeaks.

The official, Patricia Butenis, raised alarm about "corruption at ports of entry, unwillingness of inspectors to do their jobs and poor leadership in the border force."

U.S. commanders say the force has improved in recent years but acknowledge that those concerns remain valid.

U.S. military officials have expanded their efforts along the Iranian border since 2007, when they detected pipelines of powerful munitions and Shiite militiamen entering Iraq, sometimes under the auspices of Iran's Quds Force.

The munitions smuggled across the border included long-range rockets used against the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and parts for armor-piercing roadside bombs that became the top killer of U.S. troops in Iraq, according to the military.

Tehran has denied it aided Shiite militiamen. Shiite militias no longer control large swaths of Iraq, as they did during the peak of sectarian fighting in 2007.

But three highly trained militia groups continue to carry out attacks against U.S. forces. Two of the groups, Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, are led by Iraqis who received training, funding and guidance from Tehran, according to U.S. military officials.

The Promised Day Brigade is the remaining armed wing of anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's movement; Sadr disbanded his mainstream militia, the Mahdi Army, in 2008. Gibbs said the groups appear to be lying low for now.

"The word 'dormant' is probably a fair assessment," he said. "We still see violence from these groups. They keep us on our toes."

We will yet regret our failure to kill that scumbag, three-time insurrenctionist Moqtada al Sadr. I imagine we'd beat him--again--but if we keep letting him take shots at us with Iran's help, one day he'll succeed.

Scum like him don't stop until they are cold and very still. Is our civilian government in Washington mentally prepared for the coming storm?