Monday, November 26, 2007

A Sea Change?

The fact that Sunni Arabs fled Iraq has been used by some as a sign of failure in Iraq. At one level, it was a failure to pacify central Iraq. But in regard to fighting the war, clearing out Sunni Arabs who actively or passively (from fear or conviction) supported the insurgents and jihadis helped to defeat the Sunni Arab terrorists and insurgents. Many of these Sunni Arabs were the educated elites who gained from Saddam's rule.

Anyway, the refugees are returning home:

An Iraqi official at Al-Walid border post between Syria and Iraq interviewed by state television Al-Iraqiyah said between 700 and 1,000 Iraqis are returning daily.

Only 100 to 200 people are crossing into Syria every day -- mainly for work -- as against the 1,000 or more who just months ago were fleeing the violence, said the official, asking not to be named.

Major General Adnan Jawad Ali, deputy commanding general of Iraq's ground forces, told the news conference that some refugees were arriving home, particularly to Baghdad, to find their houses damaged or looted.

The Iraqi military was deploying in areas where refugees were returning to provide security but it was up to the government, Adnan said, to deal with the problems of damaged or destroyed houses.

The United Nations, meanwhile, said the number of returning refugees had become a "flow".


But the UN won't help because they don't want that help to encourage more Iraqis to return to Iraq while the war is waged. It's already a flow, so what the UN is worried about is beyond me. This could be an opportunity for us to cement our gains with the Sunni Arabs and lock them into a peaceful arena to compete in politics.

As unfortunate as the Sunni Arab flight from central Iraq was for many of those involved, I still think that in the end this flight helped drain the sea in which the Sunni terrorists swam. So I hope that as these Sunni Arabs return to a far different Iraq than the one they once knew, they come back having reconciled themselves to their loss rather than just raising the sea level for predators to thrive.

If these returnees use their education and money to build a new Iraq, this will be a good development. If they bring their sense of grievance at having their era of stealing ended, then a new struggle will begin in Iraq. In a few years time, if their grievances lead to an attempt at a coup, this return of refugees might represent the emergence of the new threat to victory that I've wondered about.

The struggle to defend our victory begins now, even as we work to finalize our ongoing success into that victory.

UPDATE: Our military is concerned about this development, too:

"All these guys coming back are probably going to find somebody else living in their house," said Col. Bill Rapp, a senior aide to the top U.S. commander in Iraq. "This is a major concern. The government of Iraq doesn't have a policy yet. We have been asking, pleading with the government of Iraq to come up with a policy."


Returning refugees is certainly a sign that violence has abated enough for these people to risk the trip home. But the result depends on what these Sunni Arabs do upon their return. The Iraq they fled is gone. Sunni Arab domination is gone. Can they set aside what they've lost and live in the new Iraq?