Mr. Rudd will distance Australia from the United States in some respects by signing the Kyoto Protocol on global warming and withdrawing troops from Iraq.
Passing a Kyoto that is all but ignored even by those who signed it is just theater. I couldn't care less about that.
But in the area that matters, Australia isn't pulling out of the alliance. Even in Iraq, Australia will remain:
Rudd announced Sunday that he would visit Washington early next year to discuss the withdrawal of Australia's tiny but politically significant 550 combat troops. He will keep in place another 1,000 military personnel, including Navy warships in the Persian Gulf and a diplomatic protection contingent in Baghdad.
Rudd has said that he is "rock solid" on the military alliance between Australia and the US. "I think there'll be awkwardness rather than embarrassment," says political scientist John Hart, an expert at the Australian National University. "The US is also talking about withdrawing troops, so I don't think they'll see this as a major problem in the bilateral relationship."
With combat on a downward trajectory, losing Australia's troops in a combat role is not a killer. Two years ago, a decision by Australia to withdraw their troops from Iraq would have stung. Today, as our own troops start to draw down and we can see victory, this withdrawal is not going to hurt us. And Afghanistan remains a theater of war that we share a common concern.
American opponents of the war will make much of this. And yes, I wish Howard had won just to rebuke such assessments of their election. But our alliance will endure this and thrive. So the anti-war side has a hollow victory, here.
Our Coalition has always relied on the willingness of those allies. This is the wisest course. So I thank Australia for fighting with us so long in Iraq. And I thank Australia for continuing to stand with us in Iraq and fight with us in Afghanistan. Our alliance will remain strong.
Good luck Prime Minister Rudd. The Long War isn't over by a long shot.
