I think one can claim a very real expectation that next year, the world may see a genuine, old-fashioned victory in the Iraq war. In five years, we will have overturned Saddam Hussein's government, killed, captured or driven out almost all al-Qaida terrorists, suppressed the violent Shiite militias, induced the Sunni tribal leaders and their people to shun resistance and send their sons into the army and police and seek peaceful resolution of disputes -- and we will have stood up a multisectarian, tribally inclusive army capable of maintaining the peace that our troops established.
All I will commit to is that the trend is very good. But I've thought the trend was good for the past 4-1/2 years (at faster or slower paces, to be sure). My only point of worry on the battlefield was the summer of 2004, but we passed that challenge successfully and strengthened our hand in the end.
I'd like to say we have victory in sight, but you never can tell how an enemy will react to losing. They want to win, and unknowns are too strong right now to predict actual victory before we achieve it.
