It's all about trends. In Iraq, the trends are going against the terrorists. Take IEDs (roadside bombs). There are fewer of them, and more of them are being detected before they can hurt anyone. Thus U.S. casualties from IEDs are down 80 percent compared to last Spring. Overall American casualties have not been this low since May, 2003, right after the fall of Saddam's government. Iraqi military and civilian casualties are also down over 70 percent, compared to last Spring. Most of this was due to so many Iraqis finally taking control of their own security. Iraqis, particularly Sunni Arabs, have basically said "enough!" Over 60,000 Iraqis have volunteered to help with security.
Unfortunately, as I've worried about for years as I wondered how the Sunni Arabs could stupidly resist and kill in a doomed effort to win, all those Shia deaths may be interfering with the ability of the Sunni Arabs to essentially surrender:
Meanwhile, in Baghdad the decision has already been made to screw the Sunni Arabs, in as many ways as possible. No oil for those bastards, and not many government jobs either. It they are lucky, maybe we'll let them live.
While guilty Sunni Arabs must be captured and tried for their crimes in this insurgency and from Saddam's era (or they could flee into exile to escape such justice), we have to convince the Shias (especially) and the Kurds to restrict anti-Sunni Arab measures to the high-ranking Baathists. These people should not be allowed in the government and instead pension them off and monitor them to keep them from causing trouble. Lower ranking Baathists should be allowed to rehabilitate themselves with public service. Other Sunni Arabs just as screwed over as the Shias and Kurds because they were not part of the Tikriti mafia, should be welcomed into the new Iraq.
While the Shias will win a fight to the death, this could kill our efforts to plant democracy in Iraq for a generation. A lot more people than the Sunni Arabs would be screwed should this happen.
