About 100,000 Turkish troops are very visibly deployed along the Iraqi border amidst concerns that Kurdish rebels are staging out of northern Iraq.
The Iraqis don't want the Turks to invade:
Turkey has threatened a major cross-border assault on PKK bases in northern Iraq if Baghdad and Washington fail to make good on promises to crack down on the rebels there.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari warned Monday that such a move could have "disastrous consequences" and would be met with stiff Iraqi resistance.
"They are talking about a large-scale military incursion which is getting people extremely, extremely nervous and worried," Zebari told the BBC in an interview.
If the Turks really wanted to go in on a large scale, it seems that the Turks would have been better served by doing it suddenly without much warning. Instead, the Turks are loudly proclaiming their intention to hit the PKK.
My guess is that the Turks don't want to invade, either. But they do want help dealing with the PKK. So in response to the Turkish sabre rattling, the Iraqis promise some help:
"There is an increase in checkpoints to prevent the PKK from getting food and fuel. There are measures to prevent them from reaching populated cities," Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari, himself a Kurd, told a news conference in Baghdad.
We understand the Iraqi position as well as the Turkish concern and so don't expect the Iraqis to crack down on the PKK:
Washington, Ankara's NATO ally, has said it does not expect Iraq to take military action against the PKK, but wants Baghdad to establish a "lookout list" of rebel leaders and take steps to disrupt their supply lines.
Perhaps more helpful, we are providing intelligence to the Turks which logically would allow the Turks to target rebels rather than beating the bush with a large force:
Pentagon officials are now starting to say publicly that the U.S. is flying manned spy planes over the border area, providing Turkey with more intelligence information, and that there are standing orders for American forces to capture rebels they find.
And we've promised unspecified help:
"We all need to redouble our efforts and the United States is committed to redoubling our efforts," Rice told a news conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan.
So with the Iraqis not wanting an invasion, the Turks not wanting an invasion but wanting to hurt the PKK, and the US and Iraq providing some help, perhaps this announcement by the Turkish foreign minister demonstrates that there will be no large-scale operation:
Ali Babacan said a meeting Monday between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Bush "will determine the steps that Turkey would take." If Turkey decides to send its troops into Iraq, "any cross-border attack would be aimed at hitting terrorist bases and would not be an invasion," he said.
Given that Turkish forces are already inside Iraq, and have been for quite some time, perhaps this meeting will establish the ground rules for a Turkish response that helps Turkey hurt the PKK without compelling the Iraqis to officially notice the operation. Armed with our intelligence, the Turks may be able to use light infantry and special forces inside Iraq while keeping the heavy stuff inside Turkey.
Considering that this isn't the best time of year for operations in the northern mountains with heavy armor, perhaps this is what Turkey wanted all along.
UPDATE: Remember, those 100,000 Turkish soldiers are already busy fighting within Turkey:
In past months, the military has declared large regions of rugged, sparsely populated territory in eastern Turkey to be "security zones," meaning that civilians are barred from entry. It is virtually impossible to assess what kind of military activity is going on in those areas, where rebels of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, might be active. ...
The rebels, who demand more rights for Turkey's Kurdish minority, traditionally end their annual fighting season at this time of year, before winter snows make it difficult to move around in the rugged terrain. Their strength has diminished since the peak of their powers in the mid-1990s, when they set up highway checkpoints and effectively controlled many areas by night when military patrols withdrew to their barracks.
All the threats, which have gotten the Iraqis and our government to promise help, may be more useful to pin the PKK in place within Turkey. And remember when you think this crisis is huge, even with northern Iraq as a sanctuary (which it has been since the mid-1980s, PKK strength is down from a decade ago. So Turkey is not reacting to an unprecedented situation calling for unprecedented means.
UPDATE: Pressure for Turkey to exceed these developing parameters has just eased:
Eight Turkish soldiers captured last month by Kurdish guerrillas were released in northern Iraq on Sunday, a move which could ease public pressure on Turkey's government to launch a major cross-border incursion.
The timing just doesn't seem right for a major incursion in multi-division strength. I think Turkey has gotten enough from diplomacy to make only minor moves with special forces and aircraft inside Iraq while the bulk of the forces on the border instead seek out the PKK inside Turkey.
