And while their threats to use their air force to strike Israel wouldn't make it past the Tigris River in the face of our air power let alone Israel's are a farce, they do have missiles. And no, I'm not talking about their several dozen long-range models. Iran's branch office od Hizbollah in Lebanon could rain down plenty of rockets. And Lord knows how tight of a leash Iran has on Syria (which has plenty of missiles in range) these days.
This is interesting, however:
When asked whether Iran would block the Hormuz Strait, the world's most important water way for oil shipments, if attacked, government spokesman Gholamhossein Elham dismissed it as "far- fetched" that anybody would take "this foolish option."
This is actually a rational thought. Iran needs to export oil and import gasoline to keep the regime going. So closing the Strait of Hormuz to all would be suicide. And based on the Tanker War of the 1980s, Iran knows that a threat to oil exports is the one thing that could put a spine into the Europeans. Europe joined the US Navy in force to keep the Gulf open during the latter part of the Iran-Iraq War. And closing exports would give us the excuse to blockade Iran and destroy everything Iran has that shoots and floats or flies. In the end, we'd open up the shipping routes again.
But you know what? If the bullets fly, I wouldn't bet much on the mullahs acting rationally no matter what their spokesman says right now. They will take the foolish option because it will hurt us. And that will feel good at the moment. Only later will they realize it hurts them more.
Remember, Iran's actions to strike neutral shipping in the Tanker War made no sense at all, yet they did it anyway, drawing in the West in a de facto alliance with Iraq against Iran.
