We worry that the enemy will stage an "al Tet" offensive to break our home morale and influence our debate in favor of retreat.
In the past, Ramadan alone has been a source of increased enemy attacks (and remember those innocent days of 2001 when anti-war people said we needed to observe a Ramadan truce during the Afghan campaign because Moslems don't fight during Ramadan?).
So we'd be likely to see an increase in attacks without our home debate upping the stakes. With Ramadan and the debate happening at the same time, this could result in a major enemy escalation of murder.
But will we see such an enemy surge? Lieutenant General Odierno wonders:
The Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which this year begins around September 12, is often a time when insurgents launch brutal attacks on security forces and civilians.
The lead-up to Ramadan this year has so far seen low levels of violence, said Odierno, the number two commander of US-led forces in Iraq.
"Ramadan is big," Odierno said, adding that what happens in the next 45 days would be important.
"So far in the 30 days before Ramadan violence has been going down," he told a group of foreign reporters at a military base in Baghdad.
In the past, he said, violence had increased before and during Ramadan and then tapered once it was over.
"This year it has been going down (before the start Ramadan). We think this is a trend," he said.
"So all we have to do is carry this out and see its impact as a whole over time," he said, adding "that will be a big indicator" of whether the current security is maintained and in turn help decide on reducing the forces.
Odierno said attacks across the country last week represented the lowest weekly number in the past 15 months while attacks in August were the lowest in 13 months.
"I think if we can continue to do what we are doing, we'll get to such a level where we think we can do it with less troops," he said.
If the enemy can't scrape up an offensive that generates headlines, this may not only bolster the spine of our Congress but perhaps finally break the morale of enemy fighters inside Iraq.
Our Left keeps giving the enemy hope of victory. But every time, our troops send them to Paradise in large numbers.
Even fanatics break eventually in the face of repeated defeats. I hope this year's non-offensive during Ramadan could be that point in this war.
Though if it isn't, that means we just keep killing more jihadis.
