The Big Hole Incident: Final Exam

Arthur K. got me thinking about the raid in Syria. I was going to let it go until more solid information comes up. Commenters are soaking up information released without considering whether the information is even accurate. Which would make speculation based on that information worthless. One could go mad speculating.

But let me try one. Who says Israel hit the target?

We clearly were in on this. Right now it looks like we procided intel and IFF codes so we wouldn't shoot down Israeli planes (or helicopters heading to Iraq with those ground troops--if indeed there were ground troops involved).

But what if we were the ones who hit the target?

Maybe we tested our F-22 Raptors to see how they'd do in a real life strike against Russian-made air defenses. Maybe all the activity of Raptors in the Pacific was a diversion for deploying some to CENTCOM.

Maybe the Israelis sent in their planes from Turkish air space to the target area with the mission of being spotted and taking the blame. The Israeli planes head west, dropping fuel tanks so even if nobody spots them there's physical evidence left on the ground fingering Israel; and our stealthy strike planes head east back to Iraq or Kuwait or Saudi Arabia (or north through Turkey and perhaps on to an East European NATO base), undetected and unsuspected. If invisible planes had blown up the target, we might have been the suspect since only we have stealth.

So perhaps the mission wasn't just about Syria. Maybe we want to know if our Raptors can kick down the door as advertised. Maybe we want to see if we can hit the Iranians without being spotted. And knocking out the Syria target was a bonus.

With so little information, one could go mad speculating. I think this will be my only pure speculation entry. I'll wait for more solid reporting on what happened, who did it, and just what did we accomplish?

One thing I agree on without reservation--the Iranians are scared. If they think unstealthy Israeli aircraft can cross Syria undetected, Iran can have little confidence that they can detect our aircraft penetrating all the way to Tehran.