What I like is that it counts all the forces in Iraq, unlike most analysts who don't count all the security forces. Writes Strategypage:
Currently, Iraq has an army of 150,000 troops. ...
The Iraqi national police is larger than it's ever been, with about 165,000 men (and some women) in uniform. These people are not as well trained as the soldiers. But a portion of the police, about 26,000 of them, are trained as SWAT, riot control and counter-terrorism forces. There is also a forensics organization, with 4,000 people. Think "Baghdad: CSI."
There is a border guard, with 28,000 men, which is more than three times larger than it was during Saddam's time. There is also an elite force of 500 VIP bodyguards, trained by foreign security firms and pretty good. There are also about 100,000 security guards looking after infrastructure (oil, water, gas, electricity) and another 100,000 Kurdish militiamen who, are technically part of the Iraqi armed forces (and are paid as such). Many of these have received training from American instructors, and have been quite successful in keeping things quiet up north.
There is a growing force of Sunni Arab para-military troops, who are managed by tribal leadership.
Add in 168,000 Americans, 10,000 Coalition, and probably 50,000 contract security personnel, and we have more than enough security density to win this war. Money and jihadis make the remainder more lethal than mere numbers would predict.
Saddam had an army of 350,000 plus police, but the really effective regime backers were the subset of 100,000 Republican Guards (Pet peeve alert. These were not "elite" as Strategypage writes. They were loyal, willing to fight, and better equipped than the rabble infantry, but were no "elite" in any reasonable sense of the word.) and the 100,000 spooks who kept the population terrorized. In this case, terror and the lack of resources in the majority Shia community meant that such a small amount of force could control the country.
The current Iraqi ground forces are better than Saddam's, within their limitations. They will get even better and more capable. They are certainly good enough to win with our help.
