The View from Tehran

It is common for the Left to assert that invading Iraq has only helped Iran by destroying the Saddam regime. Sometimes the Left asserts this about Afghanistan, too. But still, Afghanistan is the "good" war while Iraq is the "bad" war. That changes once Iraq is finished (either with victory, or self-inflicted defeat).

Not that these masters of strategery favor dealing with Iran forcefully, mind you. It is just another club to hit the administration.

But the Left has no clue when it comes to war.

So how does the situation look from Tehran's point of view?

Start internally as Strategypage does:

"In northern Iran, the war against the Kurds is not going well. " After supporting pro-Iranian Kurds in Iraq, the Iranians are now on the receiving end as the Iraqi Kurds snuffed them out and returned the favor.

"But there are a lot of unhappy Arabs in Khuzestan, and there is some violence." With Iran's oil industry concentrated here, the mullahs are extra sensitive. And being extra sensitive, the odds of the mullahs overreacting and fueling armed resistance is greater.

"In the southeast, there's a lot of violence, and several hundred casualties a year. But it's more crime-wave than war. It's all about drugs. Iran is a prime market, and transit route, for heroin and opium from Afghanistan. "

The economy isn't a bright spot, either, despite high oil prices: "One of the major causes of low economic growth is the low price Iranians pay for oil products. This leads to waste, and smuggling petroleum products to neighboring countries that have much higher prices. But raising the domestic price of oil based products would be very unpopular, and the government doesn't want to risk triggering a popular uprising." Iraqi people buying gasoline to supply generators to make up for lack of electricity caused in part by Iranian-funded attacks on the electric network are effectively waging economic warfare on Iran.

The result? "The government is cracking down on trade unions. The economy is not doing well, and unions are demanding changes. Union leaders are being arrested and sent to jail for 'acting against national security.'"

And don't forget that most Iranians hate the mullahs for cracking down on dating, exposed skin, the Internet, free speech, and alcohol. This has led to more drug addicts than actual regime opponents, but with so many internal enemies, you never know when passive resignation could explode. Heck, a majority of Iranians have a positive view of America!

Move to Iraq where Iran is fueling unrest despite the idiotic notion popular among our Left that Iran wants stability in Iraq:

"With the collapse of al Qaeda in Iraq (because the Sunni Arabs turned on them), U.S. troops are now concentrating on Iranian supported groups. Coalition commando forces are specifically looking to capture as many al Quds operatives as they can. As a result of this, Iran has been pulling its al Quds people out of Iraq. Those that have been captured so far have given up embarrassing and damaging information."

A strong and stable Iraq invaded Iran in 1980 which caused at least 200,000 Iranian KIA and perhaps as many as half a million dead. This was accomplished by a Soviet-trained and equipped Iraqi military. When the Iranian tools in Iraq are finally ground down, Iraq's military will change from a counter-insurgency force to a conventional force. It will have the benefit of American training and support, more Western equipment, and combat experienced leaders. Iran in the meantime will have a military force whose equipment has deterioriated from the level it had in 1980. (Recall how the Iranians still scrounge for F-14 parts and discount the various accounts of the wonders of Persian weapon design skills).

And Iraq will have American air and ground forces based in Iraq as a back up, with our Navy nearby as well, lacing together the defenses of the Gulf states who are arming up in response to Iran's nuclear threats.

In the east, American and Western forces are based in Afghanistan where they can hit Iran. Iran tries to destabilize this country, too, despite our so-called favor of destroying the Taliban regime.

Oh, and in the face of nearly half the population being non-Persian, with many Persians and non-Persians unhappy, the prospect of a strong Iraq, neighboring Sunni Arab states hostile to Iran, and America nearby and victorious in Iraq, the mullah regime fights with one hand tied behind their back: "Most of the fighting is being done by the Revolutionary Guards and the national police. The regular armed forces are kept in their barracks, as the government does not trust this conscript force, full of young men who are not very fond of the religious dictatorship running the country. "

From Tehran's viewpoint, the situation isn't nearly as rosy as Western leftists like to colaim it is. Indeed, Iran stands on the edge of disaster.

You'd think we could exploit this vast reservoir of discontent. Just what do we pay our CIA to do, anyway?