War Timing

One carrier that was somewhere at sea is back in Japan. Another carrier is heading home and due on the east coast December 20. Everyone says late January or February is when we attack. It seems to be the consensus of the defense experts.

I don’t know. I still guess by the end of this year—with December 27 as my D-Day choice. After all the talk of five carriers gathered in December, having only three means what? That we won’t attack? Will we have more in January or February? I don’t follow the carriers that closely but it seems unlikely. It seems that those carriers could start moving real soon to get in position if we need them by December 27. If the Washington battlegroup gets called to West African waters or something and homecoming is delayed until the end of the year, could she do a high speed dash through the Gibralter Strait at night and make it to eastern Med. Before anyone knows it isn’t heading home? Undetected? Or has the five carrier convergence been a red herring? Can we go with three? We’ve had a leap in capabilities even since the Kosovo campaign so we may not need very many aircraft to carry out a precision air campaign.

Still, I have to believe that we must see significant troop movements within days. Especially the 101st AB Division. Maybe to Germany to be able to stage right into airheads in western Iraq. And what of the British? Will we wait for their heavy division? I didn’t think that Britain would commit as much as it appears to be publicly stated. Is the British force another false piece of the puzzle that people wait to move as a sign war is soon? Otherwise, American troops need to fall in on that prepositioned equipment we already have there. I know we don’t want them there too early but this is getting ridiculous!

It just feels like Rumsfeld’s trip to the Gulf was the last tour before invasion, assessing the commanders and troops and getting a feel for it. The material breaches are piling up and the President will make his case to the world and more importantly to the American people.

I’m starting to get nervous that the invasion will be later but I’m sticking to this year for now. After all, going early is the only way to get tactical surprise. And if everybody says January at the earliest…

On to Baghdad.

Oh, I ragged on the 100 stars in Landfill and then had a pang of guilt for mocking them so. See Landfill for the attack and apology/explanation. Depending on when you read this, it may be in the archives.