China is fine with Russia's seizure of Crimea, according to their foreign ministry:
Both sides believe that the appropriate handling of the Ukraine crisis is very important to maintaining regional peace and stability.
While that's vague, it sounds like China will be fine as long as Russia makes sure it is over fast without bad optics of shooting. That's how China would do it, after all, if negotiations fail to get China its objectives:
"But if some countries wish to provoke or wish to damage ... regional peace and the regional order, then we must make a response, and an effective response at that," Fu told a wide-ranging news conference on the eve of the legislature's annual session.
"The point of this response, is to, on the one hand, maintain China's territory and sovereignty, and on the other hand to maintain the regional order and peace," [Legislative spokeswoman Fu Ying] said.
Putin seems fine with that route:
President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia saw no need to use military force in the Crimea region of Ukraine for now, in remarks apparently intended to ease East-West tension over fears of war in the former Soviet republic.
Amazing. It doesn't count as a war if Russia succeeds in taking the entire Crimea without firing a shot? Really?
Which at least seems to mean that Russian threats to escalate, either by taking the east or expanding attempts to control the Black Sea region by moving on Odessa, are out. The Russians would need to shoot because they'd be fired on, at this point.
Indeed, it means that Ukrainian garrisons still holding out in Crimea should hold their ground and dare the Russians to end regional peace and stability by driving them out with force.
Then Ukraine--if they can manage it--could attempt to drive south into Crimea to at least take some ground back, even if they can't eject the Russians from Sevastopol.
And Ukraine could grab Transdniester, as a bargaining chip.
The private sector is already harming Russia more than any Western government in reaction to the subliminal invasion. Putin clearly needs to win this as cheaply as possible. Getting his way in Crimea without shooting is the best way to achieve that. Otherwise, collateral damage could start to appear. Whether it is stock market losses, loss of trade, other sanctions, demonstration that Russia's military isn't anywhere near as good as Putin would like the world to believe, or something else.
Who knows, enough Russians might worry that Putin will be unstoppable if he gets his way in
So Ukraine needs to make sure they don't lose Crimea without a fight. If Putin doesn't want a fight, that's what he needs to have.
