Friday, July 01, 2011

The Taiwanese Balance, Too

We've turned down Taiwan's request for F-16 fighters:

The Republic of China on Taiwan on June 24 petitioned Washington to be able to submit a letter of request (LoR) to buy 66 Lockheed Martin F-16C/D Block 50/52 fighter aircraft and an upgrade program for its 146 older F-16A/B fighters. The submission by the ROC diplomatic mission to the U.S., the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO) its fourth for this program sought price and availability data for the aircraft.

The American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), the U.S. diplomatic office in Taipei, refused to accept the submission and declined comment. ...

The U.S. moves to sideline its alliance with the ROC out of fear of disrupting relations with the PRC[.]

Taiwan is trying to do what it can:

Taiwan on Thursday unveiled an upgraded version of its locally developed fighter jet in a bid to boost its air defences against China after the US declined to sell it F16 warplanes.

But it is an old and low-tech plane. There is only so much Taiwan can do.

We think we are "balancing" relations between China and Taiwan as if letting China gain the ability to invade Taiwan has no price. We "balance" and Taiwan just makes do as best it can as our loyal ally that blocks Chinese expansion to the first island chain.

But there are limits to how we can orchestrate the balancing act across the Taiwan Strait. For Taiwan must balance too. Ultimately, it is folly for Taiwan to resist China if the Taiwanese can't back their resolve with steel.

If we refuse to provide Taiwan with the means to defend their island democracy, one day Taiwan will cut a deal with China. What choice will they have? Even if Taiwan manages to salvage their local democracy--for even a while as Hong Kong has done--in the long run it will erode. And in the short run, China will gain bases on Taiwan to project Chinese power south, east, and north. Our balancing will have toppled over and others will learn the joys of balancing their friendship with (and reliance on) America and their acceptance of Chinese hegemony.

How's that smart diplomacy we're told we've been blessed with working out for you?