Wednesday, July 06, 2011

Tripoli Clock Versus Brussels Clock

Strategypage has a couple pieces that describe the slow progress toward victory that NATO is making despite the stiff resistance that Khaddafi is putting up.

Once again, I'll agree with them. We are winning. And then I'll again add that I suspect that our will to win will crack before Khaddafi's will to resist cracks. I hope I'm wrong, but that is the risk we are taking with our air-only campaign (well, and the naval blockade of non-humanitarian supplies, too). We thought an air only campaign would shock and awe Khaddafi into submission after a couple weeks. (Was that a real analysis or one conveniently made to work within NATO's limited smart bomb arsenal?)

This article agrees with me:

With victory still elusive after 15 weeks of bombing, Western allies arrayed against Libyan leader Moammar Kadafi are racing to crack his regime before their own coalition fractures.

Even as Libyan rebel fighters begin to show improvement and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization increases airstrikes in the western part of the country, signs of friction have appeared within NATO. Members have expressed concern about declining munitions inventories and warned that the costs and stresses of the campaign cannot be sustained.

When it comes to war, I'm a bandaid off fast kind of guy. My view is that if you give an enemy the precious gift of time, they might just find a way to use it.

In the case of Khaddafi, our gift of time means that he doesn't even have to defeat us--he just has to still be standing when we tire of trying to beat him.

And you never know what event might save Khaddafi.