Friday, July 15, 2011

Someone's Patience Will Snap

The protests in Syria seem go be building in breadth:

As the Syrian uprising enters its fifth month, activists and human rights groups say they are detecting a new momentum in the protest movement, with demonstrations now taking place on a near-daily basis in towns around the country. Among them are places where the uprising had seemingly been suppressed, such as the southern town of Daraa, the earliest focus of the government’s crackdown, where hundreds of people staged a demonstration on Thursday in a central commercial district.

There were also demonstrations in several suburbs of Damascus, Homs, Hasakah in the far northeast of the country, Qamishli in the north, Bokamal on the Iraqi border and Deir al-Zour, where four protesters were shot dead by security forces, according to the Local Coordination Committees, which both coordinates and disseminates news about protests.

“The protests are definitely escalating. This is unusual during weekdays,” said Wissam Tarif of the human rights group Insan, who is currently in Beirut. “For the past week, we’ve seen protests every night in many locations.”

The Syrian government has been able to rely on a few loyal units and reliable goons and secret police while leaving the bulk of the army out of the fray.

I'll ask again, how long will the basic Sunni conscripts just stand by and watch Alawites and Iranian agents (or even just rumors of Iranian agents) shoot fellow Sunnis? If protests are taking place more days and in more places, the loyal forces will have to shuttle around that much faster or risk leaving protests uncovered where they might spread.

But can Assad intensify the shootings to try to squash the protests before the bulk of the army gets too shaky to stand aside?

Heck, how long can the loyal guys just keep up the pace?