Sunday, July 31, 2011

Fissures

I haven't known what to make of the murder of the rebel general Younes at the hands of other rebels. Infighting among rebels isn't that shocking or unusual of course. But does it mean the rebels, just now appearing to be gaining the benefits of months of training by capturing ( Burayqah (Brega), will lose whatever military effectiveness they have now? Or even present vulnerabilities that Khaddafi can exploit? This can't be good for our side:

As news of the killing spread, forces loyal to General Younes, mainly from his Obeidi tribe, began heading for Benghazi, while other fellow tribesman began spraying the hotel from where Mr Jalil had made the announcement with automatic rifle fire.

I hadn't heard that. Again, civil wars within a civil war are hardly shocking. But given how shaky the rebellion is and how shaky the NATO coalition trying to help the rebels win is, any development that slows down the defeat of Khaddafi is something that increases the chance that the loyalist side will not be the first side to break.

UPDATE: More on the eastern rebels in the wake of the killing:

The murder plunged the new government and its capital into turmoil, and raised urgent questions in NATO capitals about whether the TNC or its ragtag army were in danger of crumbling.

In a NATO war strategy that rests on blockade, air strikes, and indigenous ground forces, the weakening of the critical third leg of ground forces could save Khaddafi.