The Winter War of 2022 Returns to Center Stage

After a brief high-tech air campaign against Iran, punctuated by intercontinental American B-2 stealth bomber strikes on Iran's most important and best protected nuclear sites, the world returns to the mud and death of the war that won't leave the party. But you go to blog with the stalemated war you have and not the shiny air war you wish you had.

The 12-Day War (will that stick?) was waged and concluded in the time it takes Russia to organize a motorcycle assault by 9 guys who are pretty sure what the business end of their rifle is. Speaking of low-tech, bloody, stupidity:

In Mad Max fashion, Russia’s primary vehicle of choice has become the motorcycle, or the 21st-century Dragoon. A Russian soldier must drive as fast as possible with no mistakes to avoid getting hit by a drone.

While we gazed at the skies, Russia remained in its same predicament:

Russian forces in Ukraine are stalled and too weak to launch another offensive, even a small one.

It will get worse. The Russian economy is collapsing because of disinvestment. 

I think this is directionally correct but Russia has means to cope. For a while. I have no idea when the slow erosion accelerates and suddenly becomes apparent. Are Russian soldiers really surrendering more often? Big if true. But I'm sure Russia is erecting a Potemkin Village of strength to frighten us into giving Russia a better deal than it can get on the battlefield.

Europeans are standing up to Russia by deciding to rearm NATO and by pledging more military aid to Ukraine. America stands pleased with the increased European defense effort and is no longer discussing distancing itself from NATO and its Article V common defense clause. American surveillance and intelligence continues as does previously committed military aid. I suspect America military aid will continue even if it won't be aid because it is paid for through some mechanism on paper--and maybe in reality.

With Putin's semi-trained organ grinder nuke monkey, Medvedev, waving its nukes about, Russia talks big about its next victims. Which seems like the brochure for the shiny sports car Putin wants even as Russia's cheap imported Chinese motorcycle sits at the curb, ready for glory in Ukraine. 

Yet Russia is ramping up efforts to Russify the Ukrainians in Russian-occupied Ukraine. Is this a parallel effort to the war or a reaction--either pessimistic or optimistic--to the war effort? 

What is happening behind the scenes in the openly and flamboyantly confident Russian military is unknown. 

UPDATE (Monday): Entering stage right, NATO:

Putin’s refusal to negotiate an end to the war (partly because of the fragmentation of NATO) has been replaced by the need to consider what NATO, now including the U.S., will do. With the recent NATO love fest, Putin might be forced into the negotiations Trump wanted. 

UPDATE (Tuesday): Ukraine can still win. 

But unless Ukraine deploys a lot more tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, infantry, and artillery to seize the initiative and drive the Russians out, that victory relies on the collapse of Russia's army and/or economy leading to Russian soldiers fleeing back to Russia. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: Photo from Forbes.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: Has Russia's Army Changed Little Since 1945?

In case you missed it on Substack: Little Green Men Don't Threaten Estonia

In case you missed it on Substack: A Non-Kinetic Blockade?

In case you missed it on Substack: New Boss Same As the Old Boss

"France warns of escalation of war with Iran", and reassured everyone that obviously France would not be the one to do so.

Have people been beaten with the green energy clue bat enough to change course? Tip to Instapundit.

Sunday afternoon and already communists were out protesting to protect Iran. Those black-on-yellow signs are signature colors for the ANSWER scum. 

Whenever a top Russian speaks--as they did on America's attack on Iran--I want to drop MOPs on them. But business before pleasure.

We built at least 20 GBU-57 MOPs and used 14 on Iran. One source said the total was 50. So plenty left.

If Iran attacks our forces in CENTCOM in response to Midnight Hammer, we should hammer Revolutionary Guard targets, especially naval assets. The IRGC is a pillar of the regime. 

China is a-hole: "A Chinese flotilla of cutters, warships and maritime militia harassed Philippine government vessels resupplying fishermen at Scarborough Shoal on Friday."

China works to catch up with American UUVs.  

The Army is working to get a prototype for a longer-range M109-52 self-propelled howitzer. The God of War demands an offering. 

Should officer and NCO ranks be merged because experienced NCOs report to inexperienced new officers? Because civilians can't enter the system mid-career? The former has always existed. For the latter, restore the old parallel specialist ranks that survive today in the Army as Specialist/Corporal E-4s?

Arguing withdrawing 4,500 troops from South Korea risks war with North Korea if there is a war with China over Taiwan. Losing South Korea sure ends its power projection role. 

I can't imagine Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz because it shuts down their oil exports, too. And then America and its Gulf allies and allies from farther afield will open the strait while bombing Iran's oil export infrastructure. 

I keep hearing we failed at nation-building in Iraq and Afghanistan. I basically reject that we were nation-building. We had to leave a friendly government or what's the point of regime change? Is Somalia anarchy really the objective? But you know what was a failed nation-building attempt? Obama's Iran nuclear deal.

Canada is being strategically stupid out of spite. The EU won't defend Canada. The EU just wants the power to make this deal.

Hmmm: "An Azerbaijani man suspected of espionage had thousands of photographs of a U.S.-Greek military facility on the island of Crete stored on various devices, authorities in Greece say." A similar arrest on Crete of an Iran-linked Azerbainani man was noted.

I suspect talk of the MOP attack on Fordow penetrating air shafts rather than drilling through rock is misinformation to disguise the weapon's capability by pointing to a construction error for the success. Just my speculation, of course. 

Thank goodness Lincoln didn't have to cope with such a law in 1861.

Monitoring sailor health in real time for the ability to perform duties.

Impressive, but I judge on outcomes and not inputs: "Last month the U.S. Navy carrier Truman/CVN-75 carried out the largest series of airstrikes in naval history, using nearly 60 tons of missiles and bombs." Will the Houthi stay down just glancing nervously at the skies? But a crippled Iran sure helps.

At the risk of stating the obvious, yeah, Golden Dome would be a big deal--if it works. 

Sure: "The Army is expecting to take on a larger role in protecting the homeland as the Defense Department develops the Golden Dome missile defense architecture, a service official said recently." Before World War I, coastal defense was a major Army mission.  

LOL: "When and if President Trump addresses the NATO conference that begins in The Hague today, I trust that he’ll announce the withdrawal of the US from the alliance." Because he criticizes it? Oh, please. Face it, America exiting NATO is an EU wet dream. SO THAT HAPPENED: Article V & NATO rearms.

Suspiciously light on who is carrying out the syringe attacks in France. 

Well that's interesting: "U.S. lawmakers want an ammunition production and storage facility at a former American naval base in the Philippines."

U.S. Space Command general discusses Golden Dome. This should help.

To be fair, strength is way down from peak strength in those commands: "any conversation about reducing U.S. troop presence in U.S. Central or European Command appears to be on hold." 

A large Chinese UUV that can carry four torpedoes or eight naval mines. 

Sanctions aren't a silver bullet: "Economic sanctions against Russia are not working, at least in the short term." But they do cause problems that waste Russian resources. And coping isn't thriving.

Unrest in our major non-NATO ally, Kenya. 

It's bigger! It's badder! Ladies and gentlemen, it's too much for Mr. Incredible! 

Restoring the Marine Corps as America's global response force. I had thoughts on that in Joint Force Quarterly in 2000 (pages 38-42).

Unless Australia is content to be a vassal of China, it's leaders had best stop using Trump as the monster under the bed for domestic political advantage and forge a relationship with the American president.

China has an export version of its J-35 stealth fighter. What does China leave out? Or do they just sand the skin and hit it with hammers prior to delivery?

Central Asia is a hotspot for financing and recruiting jihadis worldwide. Is the hidden good news that the Arab world is starting to contain its jihadi problem? 

Ah, that leaked "low confidence" DIA assessment on the American strike on Iran that minimized the effects assumes Iran retains enriched uranium it can process to make some bombs. So the infrastructure is more than set back a few months. Honestly, I worry Iran's backup facilities are in North Korea. 

The Guardian, illustrating their article with ANSWER protesters, says Israel and America can't remake the Middle East with bombs. Sure. But Iran with nuclear bombs sure could destroy the Middle East. Baby steps, people.

It's the only military threat, so ... "NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte assessed that Russia is the largest existential threat to NATO members today and that Russia is preparing for a protracted war with NATO." The EU could take on the non-military migrant threat instead of undermining NATO to push America out.

The Russian army has become a motorcycle gang club.

Big conventional wars are won with factories. A whole lot of truth to that. Although Soviet casualties versus American casualties in World War II demonstrate that there different ways to use what the factories produce.

Possible: "A reporter asked Trump during a press conference at the NATO summit on June 25 whether it is possible that Russian President Vladimir Putin has territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine, and Trump responded that 'it's possible'" As in you can't rule out sanity breaking out in the Kremlin.

Good: "Fort Lee in Virginia will become the first base to be named after a Buffalo Soldier." Really, honoring Pvt. Fitz Lee with the same name as a Confederate general is the ultimate victory dance. 

I had assumed one or two of our SSGNs would have participated on a strike on Iran, and one did.

Marines remain in the Philippines in a serial "rotational" presence. 

Late in the Cold War it was "kill people and break things", if I recall correctly: "At a basic level, America's Air Force exists for [a very simple] capability -- 'to kill people and blow sh-- up[.]'" 

No advantage lasts forever: "The rise of quantum sensing is could someday overcome the advantages of stealth aircraft[.]" 

The Turkish PKK has decided to disarm and disband. Is the 40-year separatist campaign over? 

Better inside the tent pissing out: "North Korea has extended the service obligation for new recruits from eight to ten years for men and from five to seven years for women. This change is imperative because North Korea is running out of military age men." The 2021 reductions are thus partially reversed. 

It took a lot of years of preparation to launch that brief air raid on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities.  

Well that's a take: "Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said Israel was "crushed" during the two countries' brief war[.]"  

Fleet counter-drone weapons tests.

Maybe: "While establishing its sphere of influence over Europe will remain Russia’s priority, Russia could go to war to support China in the event of a U.S.-China conflict in the Asia Pacific." Russia can't help and hold off a rearmed NATO. And does Russia want China in the Arctic? Russia might stall its entry.

Ve haf vays of making you shut up. Can you even believe Vance expressed concern? 

Iraq's fragile stability. You can't argue Iraq isn't better than it was before 2003. But America must wage the Phase IX war in Iraq. 

Gotta love that Islamic struggle for personal growth: "More than 200 gunmen on motorbikes have attacked a Niger army base near the border with Mali, leaving at least 34 soldiers dead, the country's defence ministry said." No, really. You have to--under threat of death.

Via Instapundit, did Israel agree to end the Hamas War? It would exile Hamas (and other jihadis?), allow Gazans to emigrate to certain countries, and involve Arab states running Gaza. This is an opportunity if details can be agreed on. 

I'm pretty sure this is from the "Well, Duh" files.

The Air Force F-15EX force will grow from 98 to 129 planes.

Ukraine's Black Sea operations against Russia are shaping American and NATO ideas about naval warfare? I bet! One lesson is that NATO's ISR network has enabled Ukraine to operate against Russia in the Black Sea. Best get one of those, eh?

Break up the Air Force into separate services for "Tactical Air, Space, Strategic and Lift"? Seems a bit ... much. 

U.S. and South Korean troops conducted live-fire exercises 20 miles south of the DMZ. 

Bravo Putin! "Germany will more than double its military spending by the turn of the decade under a new defense spending proposal approved by the government this week." Strategersky. 

The foreign volunteers helping Ukraine fight and cope. But no firm number on volunteers who are fighting. I suspect the world is less significant than North Korea's expeditionary force. 

Iran has spent decades boasting of its power. This year exposed its weakness. Israel's 2024 raids on Iran's air defenses reminds of America using no-fly zone patrols to take out Iraqi air defenses in the months before the March 2003 invasion.

Astroturfing Western separatism from deep in mullah-run Iran. Tip to Instapundit. 

LOL: Israeli and American strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure "may have hardened Iran’s resolve to pursue a nuclear weapon, not abandon it[.]" Iran's mullahs wanted nukes and was willing to wreck Iran to get them. Obama didn't persuade them. But now they really want them? The Stupid is is strong in this one.

I bet the vast majority are innocent: "Iranian authorities have carried out a wave of arrests and multiple executions of people suspected of links to Israeli intelligence agencies, in the wake of the recent war between the two countries."

Is he genuinely seeking close ties with Israel? "The new Syrian president, Ahmed al-Sharaa was previously an Islamic terrorist but was determined to establish a lasting and legitimate government." It hard to believe he isn't pretending to be moderate even as his base murders Christians. I want to be wrong.

I'm certainly willing to consider we did not get everything nuclear related in Iran. I assume we want Iran to give up surviving enriched uranium in talks. But destroying it isn't off the table for America or Israel. Perhaps Iran is trying to find an overseas sanctuary for it.

Armed groups are outside the deal: "Both sides of the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have committed to disarming and disengaging their alleged proxies." But maybe it will help. 

Meanwhile in the Axis of El Vil. 

Reflecting on the Korean War begun 75 years ago. South Korea has come a long way.

No Lots of Blood for Oil Lithium: "Russian forces have taken control of a lithium-rich area near the village of Shevchenko in Ukraine’s Donetsk region[.]"

Russian ammunition depots blow up without needing Ukrainian special forces help. 

Aid: "France is also spending a lot of money to triple their munitions production. This will enable France to send Ukraine more munitions while restoring French munitions reserves depleted to supply Ukraine." Ukraine really likes the French Caesar truck-mounted 155mm artillery system. 

Spanning a water gap: "Military units from four [NATO] countries on Saturday carried out a large crossing of troops and heavy vehicles of the Rhine River in Germany during combined drills." 

The U.S.-China Naval Balance

The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) looks very shiny and is very big. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) clearly values it given the cost of building it. What's its purpose? 

Really interesting article on the naval balance with China:

Xi may come to see the PLAN, the protector of the Communist Party rather than China, as key to the preservation of his status in the Politburo. He may fear the political repercussions of the abrupt sinking of the PLAN, in a manner similar to the Qing Dynasty’s 1895 loss of the Beiyang fleet during the Sino-Japanese War. A PLAN fleet-in-being inadequate to break a U.S. blockade, but expensive and politically salient to Beijing, may ultimately be held hostage by the U.S. and its allies.  

It has a lot of interesting details--especially VLS counts. But the author seems to digress a lot, really, for no useful purpose. 

What most interests to me is that question of whether the CCP need its shiny new navy as a symbol of its power that it cannot risk in a war. Good question, as I note in this data dump:

Potemkin military with Chinese characters? I wouldn't assume the PLA can't fight. But perhaps its main purpose is to be shiny and look like a great achievement of Xi Jinping.

What's the PLAN's function? Does it have a military mission? For all its shiny new ships, China does have a problem using its fleet:

[U.S. Navy Fleet Forces Command Admiral Daryl] Caudle also said a projected increase in China’s fleet comes with challenges, including increased munitions purchases and crew.

“You have to crew all those ships. You have to sustain all those ships. You’ve got to have a place for them to moor” and have housing for the crew, he said. “So it’s not just buying ships.”

If the PLAN function really is sea control, does it have the training and logistics to fight for sea control? But if it is eye candy on Xi's arm, it's good to go. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

India Versus Pakistan

India is stronger than Pakistan. But India wants to pivot to face the more lethal threat, China. Yet Pakistan wants to be the Big Bad, as it is the reason for the military's stranglehold on Pakistan. And China, of course, wants India properly distracted.

This is interesting:

A new policy brief by ASPI, released today, outlines the quantitative military balance between India and Pakistan.

By the numbers, the India-Pakistan military balance is fairly favourable to India. In every year since 1956, India has outspent Pakistan on defence (in real terms) by a factor of at least 4.5—even by a factor of 10 in the most recent budget. India’s armed forces field more personnel than Pakistan’s across the board, most prominently the land forces, which field 1.2 million active-duty soldiers against Pakistan’s 560,000. ... 

India enjoys naval superiority and a larger, though overstretched, air force. Pakistan, while outgunned, has shown tactical resilience. Crucially, India cannot afford to focus solely on its western neighbour.

And both have nukes. Which limits their conventional campaign objectives. India's Cold Start doctrine seems like a variation of the nuclear era "snatch and grab" strategy. Pakistan wages war with Islamist terrorists.

Yet I think the prospect of China directly intervening to help Pakistan is over-stated. Still, India still needs to do something about its overstretched air force. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: Map from The Economist. 

Survive Dispersed, Strike As One

Persistent surveillance allows enemies to strike precisely. This requires friendly dispersal to survive. Dispersed friendly forces need robust communications to mass effects from dispersed forces.

Marine and Air Force F-35s exercising in northern Michigan and Wisconsin demonstrated distributed operations:

The relatively low count of centrally based fighters at Volk Field is certainly a noticeable but understandable trend in training exercises, whereby dispersing forces, assets and command elements across multiple locations has become the standard. As Lt. Col. Cady commented, “The DoD has continued to shift focus to distributed operations, which brings new logistical challenges, communication difficulties, etc.  It is critical to simulate these difficulties so our force can train to solving tactical problems in an environment that more closely replicates combat operations around the world, and especially, in the Pacific theater of operations”. 

Thirty years ago I was looking at using information for massing effort rather than massing physically: 

If we can harness the potential of information dominance, we will allow the Army to exploit its training and equipment advantages to create a fast and agile force whose flexibility and firepower stun an enemy by massing effort against weak points. [emphasis added]

That was an Army-focused essay, but massing air power effects from distributed air assets is part of that way of operating. Ground forces must do the same.

UPDATE: And yes, the American strike on Iran's nuclear facilities is an example of bringing together dispersed assets to focus efforts. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Will AI Make Even the Enemy's Minds Transparent?

In the world of achieving battlefield surprise, I think persistent surveillance can be overcome. And I think AI perception can be overcome.

Computers select targets and predict enemy actions. But would AI really have predicted the Hamas October 7, 2023 murder, rape, and kidnap invasion? 

Central Command began using Project Maven's computer vision systems in real campaigns after Hamas' surprise attack on Israel during October 2023. Israeli intelligence was criticized for not detecting the Hamas operation. Israeli intelligence did detect the Hamas plans, but Hamas devised a deception that persuaded the Israelis that there was no danger. Successful deception and surprise are one of the most effective military techniques if you can make it work. Hamas did make it work.

Project Maven scrutinizes large quantities of video and still photos of a combat zone, or potential combat zone, looking for patterns that identify or indicate the possibility of combat or violence occurring. The AI bases system is trained to detect such possibilities and provide warnings of attacks or unexpected military or militant movements. The October 2023 Hamas surprise attack was the sort of thing Project Maven could have convincingly predicted. More so than the Israeli intelligence analysis that did not indicate any dangerous actions by Hamas. 

As the post notes, surprise is achieved in the mind of the enemy commander. AI can be tricked, too. Probably by another AI. Or human commanders simply won't trust the AI.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the meme.

Certainly a Grave and Gathering Threat

Is China an imminent threat to Taiwan?

Well, one day the threat could be imminent. Perhaps one day soon: 

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth warned that a Chinese military attack on Taiwan “could be imminent” as he called on America’s allies in the Indo-Pacific to boost defence spending as a further deterrence to Beijing. 

China certainly wants Taiwan and is preparing to throw an army across the Taiwan Strait. And I think China will throw that army across with a wide variety of means. 

I'm not prepared to call it an imminent threat. 

But as I wrote in Military Review, and as Forbes noted, victory for China rests on getting ashore in force to stay rather than immediately driving on Taipei to end the war with conquest:

As Brian J. Dunn observed in a seminal assessment for Military Review last year, "To defeat Taiwan and avoid war with America, all China needs to do is get ashore in force and impose a cease-fire prior to significant American intervention." 

So China is closer than we hope. China can take the next steps years later. I mean, Russia has taken several bites out of Ukraine since capturing Crimea in 2014. It still counts as conquest even if not done all at once. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Bumped by the Israel-Iran War of 2025

The news cycle was attracted to the shiny, modern kinetics of an air war between Iran and Israel. Not even FPV drones could keep the attention on the Winter War of 2022 as it plows into its fourth year with the lava flow front lines almost imperceptibly shifting. And when America struck Iran, turn the distraction dial to 11! Yet Iran's new problems in theory should reduce Iranian help for Russia.

Russia can't be happy that Israel is pounding Iran. And watching America jump in with strategic stealth bombers and massive bombs won't make them sleep better at night. Russia is in no position to dispatch additional air defense systems to Iran. And Iran will need to devote its surviving defense production to rebuilding its defensive and offensive systems. Assuming the mullah regime survives domestic discontent given an opportunity to challenge the regime (which I do assume until more than hope is identified).

Yet the Russian invasion of Ukraine goes on despite the focus on Israel and Iran with a guest appearance by American B-2s and their supporting joint ballet--even a Ukrainian blogger is on top of the Middle East fight before addressing Russia's brutal but by-now routine invasion.  

Is this the time when observers should be really looking at the Winter War of 2022 to see if it is changing? Strategypage writes:

Earlier this year, Russian losses in weapons and manpower reached the point where new recruits could not be equipped with uniforms and weapons or given more than a few days training before being sent to the front. There they would get uniforms and equipment taken from dead soldiers. These untrained and ill equipped civilians were useless as soldiers. There were too few Russian officers left to complain and Russian offensive operations have largely disappeared. 

Russia claws forward slowly, despite their own problems and Ukrainian firepower (drones and artillery). Ukraine's frontline is seemingly very thinly manned with few reserves to quickly counter-attack. Thus Russian advances are rarely reversed. Putin believes Russia can keep this up forever if it has to:

Putin articulated a theory of victory during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in June 2024 that assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual creeping advances indefinitely, prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally significant counteroffensive operations, and win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.

Russia's bluster about demanding more of Ukraine and speculating about who in NATO is the next target all seem to me to be part of an information operation to disguise their spreading weakness. 

I keep hoping that Ukraine--two years after their failed 2023 counteroffensive--has rebuilt a strategic reserve by starving the front. I keep hoping that the 2024 Kursk offensive was a test of tactics and units. Yet I've seen nothing to validate my hopes that Ukraine has a plan for more than just hanging on until the Russian army and perhaps rump empire collapses from the strain. 

I've certainly been skeptical that Russia really has a massive juggernaut inside Ukraine. If the Russian war machine really is shaking violently and shedding bolts, could Ukraine exploit that?

But in the meantime, back to the aerial fireworks in the Middle East and revitalized speculation about ways it could broaden. 

UPDATE (Monday): ISW reports a claim:

Russia has 13 divisions and an unspecified number of regiments and brigades (totaling roughly 121,000 troops) in its strategic reserve.

Is that a reserve for the invasion force or a true strategic reserve for the rest of Russia's long frontier? 

If the former will it be sent in penny packets to reinforce the existing gnawing offensive?

And as I suggested in the main body about Russian math, is that force real? Or just a paper force of random bodies not in any way a reserve force? 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing--with some difficulty trying to get past the dangerous image claim. Sheesh. 

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: The U.S. is Building an INDOPACOM Army-Marine Expeditionary Force

In case you missed it on Substack: Ferrari Attacks Are Spectacular!

In case you missed it on Substack: Air Power is Dead. Long Live the Air Power

In case you missed it on Substack: The Fisher Solution 2.0

The U.S. must wage a war on the NGOs that undermine the West. I've long recognized NGOs as the logistics support for enemies in war. It has been much worse than I imagined. 

For some, no enemy is really an enemy. Tip to Instapundit. Asking again, why do we hate us? 

The Army 250th anniversary parade no doubt will help recruiting, eh? 

Sh*t got real in NORTHCOM?

The Army's Civilian Protection Center of Excellence lost its stand-alone status. Good. It just represented false compassion, as far as I'm concerned.

Sh*t got real in INDOPACOM?

Germany is stepping up: "Germany is on track to give €9 billion ($10.4 billion) in aid to Ukraine in 2025, maintaining the country’s position as one of Kyiv’s key backers." Most is economic aid, however. 

Preparing for the unknown--or unstated known: "The United States is shifting military resources, including ships, in the Middle East in response to Israel’s strikes on Iran and a possible retaliatory attack by Tehran[.]" 

I'm told they are island Israelis or Ukrainians: "When young conscripts in Taiwan refer to themselves as “cannon fodder,” it signals a crisis in trust that the government must not ignore." I am skeptical. 

The Chinese risk a military incident with their aggressive flying near Japanese planes.

Rather than demand a perfect plan, accept that sometimes you just need to buy time, even for the horse to sing. Israel's objective right now is that Iran doesn't get nukes next month.

Tip to Instapundit, when Britain tried to contain America to the Atlantic. Having failed to stop America at the Appalachian Mountains, Britain tried the Rocky Mountain barrier.

Russian defense production is impressive--but high losses disguise that feat. Ukraine now produces 40% of what it needs. The West must provide the rest. 

The C-17 could carry just one M10 light tank--or one M1 Abrams. I've never been impressed. Should the Marines adopt it? 

China's economic ties with Russia are deeper than they appear. 

As members of Congress ponder constraining Trump's ability to send American troops into action against Iran (assuming he even wants to), let's review the more complicated reality of who declares war. 

The Army is rebuilding its own low-altitude air defenses that high-flying Air Force fighters can't provide.

We may know what moving two dozen American tanker aircraft across the Atlantic means before this is posted.  

Is the shotgun the best last-ditch defense against fiber-optic FPV suicide drones? 

Is South Korea going wobbly? China tries to undermine Taiwan's will to fight. And more on Japan and China.

Think I'm exaggerating Defense News bias? Six "Army" stories in Tuesday email. Here are five: Deported wife, sergeant major DUI, court marshal process, training accident death, troubled soldiers. Add in one on a sad trans soldier highlighted as a "top" story. Those are relevant highlights?

U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal: "On Monday, Ukraine approved the first steps to allowing private investors to mine a major state-owned lithium deposit, two government officials said. Such a project would be the first to be greenlit under the deal." 

Boo effing hoo. Hamas gave you this and if you no longer cheer the October 7, 2023 videos, talk to Hamas. While I have sympathy, Israel is fighting lawfully and Hamas could end the suffering by surrendering.

And now some Vietnamese server (Vnpt) is thoroughly crawling TDR. Weird. But hey, welcome to my massive number of new Vietnamese readers. Or maybe I'm training a Vietnamese AI. Woo!

Metabots.

Huh: "Many Russians are openly criticizing the war and public approval of the Special Operation in Ukraine has hit a record low of 30 percent." 

The FBI smothered an investigation into apparently credible reports that China made a plan to mass produce fake American driver licenses to help sway the 2020 election. Did CBP nab 20,000 of those IDs? Was it just a plan?

Arguing against a Pacific defense pact to contain China. I'm not against it in theory. Indeed, the notion that alliances rather than Chinese aggression makes the region a tinderbox is ridiculous. I just don't think there is a common battlefield to focus the herd of cats. 

Israel's attack on Iran and a "new way of war"? Seriously? The war has been going on since Friday. And already this is revolutionary? What makes it really different from 2003 shock and awe, 1990s air campaigns against Serbia, or the 1991 air bombardment of Iraqi forces?

Are India's great power ambitions delusional? India has problems that hinder that. China had problems, too, but has overcome many of them.

Hybridized intelligence warfare. We're failing at it, of course. I reject the hybrid warfare craze. 

A handful of European states are making up for lack of new American aid to Ukraine in dollar amounts. I suspect that American military aid committed by Biden--and not halted by Trump--is still rolling into Ukraine. I sure don't read about problems at the front so far. 

The U.N. warns that terrorists could weaponize driverless vehicles. I did note that. 

Iran is alone with neither, Russia, China, proxies, or Allah able to protect it's mullah regime. How many Iranians stand with the regime?

I have no problems returning Army base names to their prior names. The names honor new heroes even as they restore old names. Generations of American soldiers proudly served America in those bases without pining for slavery. It's fitting that names associated with rebellion are now symbols of American freedom. 

Greenland now falls under NORTHCOM.

Next year the Army will produce a million 155mm shells--but that's short of its goal of 100,000 per month. 

This does not justify Iranian nukes: "Israel has its own secretive nuclear weapons program, one that it doesn’t publicly acknowledge but that, some experts believe, is also expanding." Nobody worries Israel will nuke them if they don't invade and threaten to destroy Israel. 

The new American precision 25mm grenade launcher. Does precision make having more smaller rounds better than larger 40mm launchers?

Russian power projection seems limited to cyber-space: "Western intelligence agencies believe Russia recently tried, and failed to take control of Romanian security cameras. Since they invaded Ukraine in 2022 the Russian Cyber War unit 26165 has been hard at work all over Europe." 

Don't deal with Iran's threat now because China could launch a war in the future. Another essay in a popular genre'. Don't trust the Center for No American Security. Admit it, we've pivoted.

The Philippines as a platform for Army anti-ship weapons. Marine NMESIS is also mentioned. I think these secures sea lines of communication to Taiwan. 

America needs Golden Dome. 

GAO: "The Army has little to show for its recent efforts to upgrade its air and missile defense systems despite putting them on the development fast track and spending billions of dollars in funding[.]" 

I'm pretty sure this is from the "Well, Duh" files. But wouldn't cheaper decoy drones accomplish the same thing?

The war is still young, but I think these are three fair lessons reinforced by the Israel-Iran War of 2025. It didn't take this war to know the lessons.

It isn't accurate to say Iran controls Iraq. But America does need to fight Iran over who Iraq will side with fully. 

European freedom is under threat by woke police-states. Gosh, why would Vance warn the Europeans?

I fly the American flag on June 19th. How can you not like a holiday celebrating federal troops marching into a secessionist state and letting its slaves know they are free? Yes, obnoxious radicals dominate the holiday now. Those on the right should embrace and rebrand it as part of our history of liberty.

The Army's TIC initiative to transform its brigades started with light infantry, making the Medium Brigade Combat Teams, spread to the Armor brigades and the division, and now is heading for the Army National Guard.  

The F-35 can share data with F-16s on top of the ability to do that with ground fires assets. As I've observed, options expand when sensors and shooters are separated.

Could C-17 production be resumed?

I'm curious to see the details of sweeping changes to the Army, mostly to see if we will still have an army. I fear this is just the Army version of Marine Force Design rushing for the cliff. 

American Marines and sailors practiced with Latvian troops to counter drones by building trenches "as practice for real-world deployments and to test new battlefield tactics." Tactics matter, as I've noted about small drones: "Have no doubt that counter-measures will be developed with tactics and equipment."

China is still rising and so won't act like a fully developed power. It may be rising absolutely but I suspect its relative advance has peaked. 

Will Putin agree to reload end his war on Ukraine if he is confronted with a reality that time is not on his side? Maybe. Unless Putin decides that ending the war now is a dangerous defeat and it would be better to lose later.

Every American asset sent to fight the current Iran threat is an asset that can't be sent to the Pacific to deter China? LOL. Is the author expecting Iran to destroy all those assets?  FFS, it's another essay in a popular genre'. 

For all the laughable talk that China is replacing American influence in the Middle East, China doesn't seem likely to help its Axis of Steal junior partner, Iran. But the author strays into that former territory.

Assuming Iran's regime is under extreme stress, could closing the Strait of Hormuz wreck--at a 1970s scale--the global economy? How long could Iran close it? I also don't assume Iran's regime is on its last legs. Are security forces willing to kill on a large scale to keep the mullahs in power? Tip to Instapundit.

Israel's long-range RA-01 stealth drone for recon and strike was recently spotted on the Israel-Syria border. Tip to Instapundit.

Hmmm: "The United States is moving B-2 bombers to the Pacific island of Guam[.]" A warning to North Korea? Or are Iran's nukes in North Korea? SO THAT HAPPENED.

Sh*t got real. SO THAT HAPPENED.

Drones don't replace artillery--they complement it. Preaching to the TDR choir! 

Iran will hit U.S. forces? FFS, "Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what we are going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do." SO THAT HAPPENED.

CRS report to Congress on Iran's ballistic missile programs. 

The Czech Republic continues its long run of military innovation. 

NATO is extremely lucky Putin was dumb enough to wreck Russia's military in Ukraine. 

Two thousand more Army National Guard troops were deployed for security duties in Los Angeles.

A preview of Estonia's proposed 2027 anti-drone wall. But what prevents Russian soldiers from putting their boots on that wall? 

Unanimous sanity: "A federal appeals court on Thursday cleared the way for President Trump to keep using the National Guard to respond to immigration protests in Los Angeles[.]"

Navy to boost Virginia SSN production. 

Sh*t got real. The Navy could soon have three carrier strike groups in range of Iran soon. SO THAT HAPPENED.

Sure: "Current conflicts have overturned how air power is applied. Air forces should no longer be built solely around crewed aircraft. A different balance is required." I broached this blue/brown sky issue recently. 

I doubt Iran has the capability to precisely target the Israeli hospital they hit with a long-range missile. Not that the Iranians didn't hope to get lucky with their scaled up War of the Cities that they waged against Iraq in the 1980s war. But it seems likely it was chance.

News from the Axis of Easily Enraged: "Britain has enraged China by sailing one of its warships through the Taiwan Strait." 

Oh? "NATO has an Ambassador-at-Large for Hybrid Threats. This diplomat promotes understanding of hybrid threats and the need to deal effectively with this menace." I think this promotes pretending Russia isn't waging war on NATO.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

Is Iranian democracy the only way to end the Iranian nuclear threat? It has long been my view that a more free Iran will either decide not to waste money on nukes; or we won't worry it has a few nukes. Blasting Iran's nuclear infrastructure just buys time for Iranians to destroy the mullahs. SO THAT HAPPENED.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Chinese Communist Party "solved" its slumping housing market by bulldozing five million inhabited homes and forcing those residents to buy the unsold new homes.

As the war to halt Iran's nuclear missile development rages, recall with some confusion that somehow the problem wasn't already resolved. And no, that doesn't count. SO THAT HAPPENED.

I'm fine with Hegseth as secretary of defense. But claiming the attack on Iran proves he is great is nonsense. Yes, the attack was technically proficient. But so was the rushed evacuation from Kabul.

America hopes it launched a limited offensive operation against Iran that Iran accepts. Iraq tried that against Iran in September 1980 and got an eight-year war, as I wrote in a Land Warfare Paper early in my writing career. I think we had to strike--mullahs with nukes are dangerous--but nothing is assured.

A crisis of farmers versus invading herders in the Central African Republic.  

Russia weaponized war veterans to attack Russians insufficiently enthusiastic about invading Ukraine. The veterans also attack non-Russians, which Putin ignores. Which could be a problem when it comes to recruiting those non-Russians instead of forcing ethnic Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg to fight.

The next-to-useless UN Secretary General is worried America's attack is "a direct threat to international peace and security." No word on what he thinks about mullah nukes.

It would be very helpful if Iran's mullah regime fell. But I won't let hope guide my predictions. Assume the mullahs remain until proven otherwise. FYI, I've updated my recent post on destroying Fordow repeatedly.

And I give a hearty welcome to my massive number of apparent Vietnamese readers over this last week. I have no idea what is happening. 

Stop Treating Drones Like the Latest Boy Band!

I've been addressing drones for a long time. There are vulnerabilities in America's military that they could exploit. But I did not think these were revolutionary. I believed the cycle of developing defenses to cope with those vulnerabilities would continue and in time the outsized impact of the new technology would fade. 

Yes, drones have long been something I recognized have to be accounted for. But really? 

Since 2022 air, land and naval drones have revolutionized warfare. These systems are evidence that combat robots have become an essential component of the military, without many people in or out of uniform paying a lot of attention. That's still the case, especially because the media and even many senior military and political leaders don’t fully understand the technology nor how it is implemented.

The media has been celebrating drones like magical unicorns. And while the article cites torpedoes and missiles as weapons that have already gone down the path of autonomous targeting as supporting evidence, note that torpedoes and missiles are not the wonder weapons right now. Useful, yes. Necessary, yes. But they have not made other weapons obsolete.

Naval drones are nothing so far. 

Ground drones are nothing so far. 

Air drones are perhaps fleetingly effective in the stalemated Ukraine war because of lack of sufficient counter-measures--so far. But advocates sound like miniature Billy Mitchells.

Drones will be useful and integrated into combined arms operations--but not revolutionary--whether on land, sea, or the air. I'll keep an mind open for space where crews add a lot of cost.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

A Balance Can Be Changed at Both Ends

America can't build, maintain, or repair enough ships to match China's shipyard capacity. Perhaps the most important thing the military can do if a war begins is use its geographic position off the coast of China to smash China's shipyards and ports.

Strategypage writes:

The current situation is that the U.S. Navy is unable to build enough new ships to replace the fleet it currently has, and it can’t maintain the ships it does have, let alone battle damage to those ships in war.

China on the other hand:

In contrast the Chinese Navy has been able to quickly create a navy with more warships than the U.S. Navy. Chinese shipbuilders are striving to overtake their main rival South Korea as the largest shipbuilder in the world in all categories. 

America's shipyard shortage has been worrying me. That--as well as the seeming inability of the Navy to effectively design new warships--must be addressed.  

Something seems to be wrong with our bloody Navy bureaucracy today.

But not all is lost. This naval imbalance can be attacked at both ends of the problem. Fix our problems. And smash China's end:

I’ve expressed my worry over the issue of China’s massive superiority of shipbuilding over America. That would handicap our ability to wage a long war with China. But laying keels isn’t the only measure of adding to fleet strength. The ability to smash the ships on the ways while under construction is part of the equation, too. And American forces at sea and ashore on allied territory can reach Chinese shipyards much more easily than China can reach American or European shipyards that could add to American production.

And those ports should not be a safe harbor for the active ships. Every day should be a Pearl Harbor attack on China's navy and coast guard.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: Photo from the Navy.

Everybody Was Kung Fu Fighting

Infantry closes with and destroys the enemy in order to get the enemy running. If the infantry focuses on being a low-level air force in the "brown skies" just above the ground, who does close combat?

The Army and Marines are embracing small suicide drones:

The Marine Corps was the first to go on drone offensive earlier this year, announcing the formation of its Attack Drone Team, a nine-Marine crew tasked with figuring out how to integrate first-person view weaponized drones into infantry formations. ...

The Army, which also contracted last year to buy Switchblades for dismounted infantry units, released a “call for solutions” on the government’s contracting website this month, announcing it was looking to quickly prototype what it’s calling “Low Altitude Stalking and Striking Ordnance.” or LASSO. 

On the one hand, good. Even as counter-measures are fielded to fill the void cheap drones fill, drones will have a role in combined arms combat. So I hope that this is in a separate weapons platoon in a company rather than being a basic weapon in a squad. But even with that I worry that company tactics will revolve around maximizing the drone use. Sure, it's a vital start, especially when static warfare stares us in the face. But it isn't the entire battlefield problem.

I worried about infantry getting distracted by drone defense, which is why I called for fighter drones in this Army article. But now it isn't just defense--its offensive drone warfare in the infantry. Who closes with and destroys the enemy when everyone is a Billy Mitchell wannabe? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Bomb Fordow, Dig It Out, Or Seal It In?

Would the Israelis exploit their air supremacy over Iran to airlift in a battalion of paratroopers and special forces to directly attack the buried Fordow nuclear enrichment facility? But can Israel's enemy cast a nuclear vote in this contest?

Is the only way to destroy Iran's Fordow nuclear enrichment facility buried deep under a mountain to use American MOP carried by a B-2 bomber? 

Decades ago I read a military fiction book (Vortex) about an American Ranger regiment that dropped on the South African nuclear facility to seize that country's nukes. So maybe this is a concept that has just been floating around out there that Israelis could have picked up. It seems unlikely, but who knows?

Israel would have to have improved on America's Desert One debacle attempting to dispatch ground forces deep inside Iran. Is there room to land C-130s close enough to make an assault viable? Are forces already infiltrated/recruited? And how large must the force be? Could helicopters staged through Saudi Arabia pull the raiding party out?

And what would a ground attack need to do to destroy Fordow? It is deeply buried to defend against air attack. Is it designed to hold off a ground attack? Would attackers need to advance deep underground? Or could ground attackers succeed by sealing off anybody underground by blowing the entries and air shafts?

Or maybe with air supremacy Israel can drop precision bombs on the same point again and again and again to drill down to the facility, making an American massive MOP carried by a B-2 unneeded.

Given that Israel did indeed find a way to generate enough strikes to hit Iran as I predicted years ago, maybe Israel has its own version of the MOP and they figured out how to roll out of the back of a transport plane.

Although I will say again that I worry Iran already has some nukes. 

I promoted this from an update to this post. 

UPDATE: Iran's missile barrages have gotten much smaller. 

UPDATE: China sent a couple cargo planes into Iran. What was transported? And was the mission to move something important to Iran? Or something important out of Iran? Could China have evacuated Iranian nuclear warheads? Or evacuated Chinese personnel of some sort?

UPDATE: I keep hearing that the Iranian regime is "collapsing" with reports of Iranians eager to be rid of mullah rule. 

But I won't believe the regime is collapsing until its armed defenders refuse to shoot and kill people protesting the regime. Then we can discuss whether the regime is collapsing. I should note that Israel's air campaign is targeting the internal security apparatus, per ISW.

Right now it seems way too convenient to say Iranians will save us from the mullah regime's 40+ years of supporting terrorism. So I have a small amount of hope mixed with my vat of skepticism.

UPDATE: Is an American B-2 strike the only alternative to Israel taking down Fordow with a nuke?  I can't imagine Israel using a nuke under current circumstances. Israel just isn't powerful enough or popular enough to get away with that in the long run.

UPDATE: Regarding those mystery cargo planes, China wouldn't have transported North Korean warheads Iran purchased but stored in North Korea, right? Sheer speculation, but given that the enemy votes I am loath to assume I know how many votes the enemy has.

UPDATE: With a tip to Instapundit, Israel's extensive intelligence and covert action network in Iran that is still up and running. 

UPDATE: Iran was very close to pulling together its enrichment, warhead, and missile development paths. Of course, I worry Iran might have purchased nukes from its long-time nuclear partner, North Korea. 

UPDATE: I wondered if Israel could drop a huge bomb from a transport plane, and via Instapundit I see an article asking if Israel could use a C-130 to drop a huge bomb. 

UPDATE: The Israelis don't see signs of regime instability in Iran. 

UPDATE: Earth-shattering kabooms:

"We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan," wrote Trump on TruthSocial .on June 21 "All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow."

That's gonna leave a mark. 

Will Iran strike back and risk further American strikes? 

UPDATE: Gotta say I assumed Israel had developed a means to hit Fordow. 

UPDATE: Did Israel begin their air campaign against Iran with the knowledge that America would finish the job by destroying Fordow? America clearly prepared for this, including reinforcing American defenses in the region, including by diverting anti-drone rockets from Ukraine; by evacuating American civilians; and by moving troops from Syria that I assume provided a quick reaction ground force for American bases in Iraq.

Because I assumed Israel would not have started without a plan to destroy Fordow. But Israel did not finish it off. Did Israel try but fail? Or always know America would use its B-2s?

Hell, did Israel drag America in by implying they'd use a nuke on Fordow if they had to? 

Will Iran accept the L and try to rebuild? Or will it expand the war to the oil realm, potentially harming China while benefiting Russia with higher prices? If so, will American Gulf Arab allies join the fight to keep the oil export routes open? Remember, Iraq in September 1980 thought it had launched a limited attack on Iran to collect a quick victory Iran would have no choice but to accept.

UPDATE: Again, I'll not let my hopes get over my skis, but it would be helpful in so many ways if Iran's mullah regime fell. Again, saying that doesn't mean I expect it.

UPDATE: Iran could hit U.S. forces? FFS: 

Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what we are going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do.

UPDATE: Interesting article on the strike with informed speculation along with what we think are known facts. 

UPDATE: Some in the West will be disappointed that American policy didn't reach stage four. 

UPDATE: Iran matched us 1:1 with missile-that-was-intercepted-over-our-Qatar-base for massive-friggin'-bomb-that-exploded-on-target. Clearly performance art. Is that it?

Does Qatar launch a counter-performance-art strike on Iran and leave America out of it? Or call it a draw, letting the Black Knight save face--if not limbs.

Besides, Israel is still bombing Iran, so ... what's the point? 

UPDATE: There is an agreement for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Agreement-ish. 

UPDATE: The head of the IAEA believes Iran's nuclear facilities were wrecked:

"I think the Iranian nuclear program has been set back significantly, significantly," International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Rafael Grossi said in a Fox News interview. He noted that "it is clear that there is one Iran—before June 13, nuclear Iran—and one now," describing the difference as "night and day." 

UPDATE: While I hope the American strike crippled for years the Iranian nuclear warhead program, ISW rightly notes:

A conclusive battle damage assessment of nuclear facilities will take time, given the buried nature of Iran’s nuclear sites and limited on-site access.

I won't let my hope drive a premature conclusion.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.