Bomb Fordow, Dig It Out, Or Seal It In?

Would the Israelis exploit their air supremacy over Iran to airlift in a battalion of paratroopers and special forces to directly attack the buried Fordow nuclear enrichment facility? But can Israel's enemy cast a nuclear vote in this contest?

Is the only way to destroy Iran's Fordow nuclear enrichment facility buried deep under a mountain to use American MOP carried by a B-2 bomber? 

Decades ago I read a military fiction book (Vortex) about an American Ranger regiment that dropped on the South African nuclear facility to seize that country's nukes. So maybe this is a concept that has just been floating around out there that Israelis could have picked up. It seems unlikely, but who knows?

Israel would have to have improved on America's Desert One debacle attempting to dispatch ground forces deep inside Iran. Is there room to land C-130s close enough to make an assault viable? Are forces already infiltrated/recruited? And how large must the force be? Could helicopters staged through Saudi Arabia pull the raiding party out?

And what would a ground attack need to do to destroy Fordow? It is deeply buried to defend against air attack. Is it designed to hold off a ground attack? Would attackers need to advance deep underground? Or could ground attackers succeed by sealing off anybody underground by blowing the entries and air shafts?

Or maybe with air supremacy Israel can drop precision bombs on the same point again and again and again to drill down to the facility, making an American massive MOP carried by a B-2 unneeded.

Given that Israel did indeed find a way to generate enough strikes to hit Iran as I predicted years ago, maybe Israel has its own version of the MOP and they figured out how to roll out of the back of a transport plane.

Although I will say again that I worry Iran already has some nukes. 

I promoted this from an update to this post. 

UPDATE: Iran's missile barrages have gotten much smaller. 

UPDATE: China sent a couple cargo planes into Iran. What was transported? And was the mission to move something important to Iran? Or something important out of Iran? Could China have evacuated Iranian nuclear warheads? Or evacuated Chinese personnel of some sort?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Continent Masquerading as a Country

China is huge. Too huge for the center to hold for long?

 This is interesting:

Most American foreign-policy experts fundamentally misunderstand China. They think of it as a singular, homogeneous country, when in reality it is a patchwork of linguistic, cultural, religious, and political identities, often defined by centuries of uneasy tension. These fissures extend beyond ethnic minorities such as Tibetans and Uyghurs. Significant divisions exist within the Han majority, which includes groups whose local dialects are mutually unintelligible. The central government is affected by rivalries among these competing factions.

America should target the fissures, the author says.

I recently wrote that the future of China isn't a question with a single answer:

China is a single political entity with a history of losing that unity. Even in the modern world, the mountains are high and the emperor is far.

As for predicting China's future? Well, perhaps the problem is that China is a continent masquerading as a country. As a continent, all futures might be possible[.]

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. It's sad that Bing shows Taiwan as a part of China.

The Winter War of 2022 Falls Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Does Putin fear making peace because those who have survived his meat grinder war demand a reason for their sacrifice? But what do those who haven't died yet think?

Interesting:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is in no hurry to sign an agreement that could bring him a mob, many of whom may be embittered that they lost their compatriots, their youth and, nearly, their lives for the sake of a “botched” settlement.

That's a problem when you claim you are at war with NATO, Nazis, and the Devil himself. How do you compromise with that level of threat? 

But Putin is afraid of having these soldiers at home where they might seek revenge on him. Putin would rather his troops keep dying so they remain inside his tent pissing out than the reverse. 

And boy are they dying:

Russian fatalities and casualties have been extraordinary. Russia will likely hit the 1 million casualty mark in the summer of 2025—a stunning and grizzly milestone. Overall, a high of 250,000 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine, with over 950,000 total Russian casualties, a sign of Putin’s blatant disregard for his soldiers. ...

Ukrainian fatality rates are also high at between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, with a total of 400,000 casualties (which include both killed and wounded).

The low end estimate for Russia is 200,000 dead.

The solution for Putin is clear. Make real peace with Ukraine and NATO. Then send his veteran troops to the eastern front to face the Chinese hordes in defense of Russia's Far East conquests that China may one day insist it must get back.

If European Russia is a safe rear area, Putin doesn't need to station many troops there where they might want revenge on Putin. 

UPDATE: Russia said North Korea will send a thousand sappers and 5,000 military engineers to Kursk province for clearing mines and reconstruction.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. I'm honestly shocked it followed my request: "a color photograph of an Aztec king on top of a pyramid during human sacrifice ceremonies"

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: China's Future is Opaque

In case you missed it on Substack: Army Warriors

In case you missed it on Substack: Distributed Maritime Operations Isn't Happening

In case you missed it on Substack: Chinese Troops in Russia?

In case your pucker factor is hanging out and chillin': "The multifaceted challenges facing U.S. shipbuilding include workforce shortages, overly bureaucratic procurement processes, inconsistent funding, design instability, and a limited industrial base." 

In the face of violent anti-ICE riots in Los Angeles and the refusal of local officials to rein them in, the U.S. has mobilized 2,000 National Guard troops to protect federal officials and property. Nip it in the bud or this will be (another) long, hot, fiery and significantly non-peaceful summer. 

Israel ordered Palestinians in southern Gaza to move to an evacuation zone prior to initiating military operations. 

Murderers gotta murder: "A resurgence of Boko Haram attacks is shaking Nigeria’s northeast, as Islamic extremists have repeatedly overrun military outposts, mined roads with bombs and raided civilian communities since the start of the year[.]" 

NATO is testing USVs in the Baltic Sea. 

Trump wants to keep American troops in Germany. 

A Chinese militia "fishing ship" ran aground off of the Philippines' Thitu Island.

I keep waiting to hear what is planned for the Army. Don't minimize the importance of the Army's role in INDOPACOM. 

"Humanitarians" should be told to pound sand if they get their panties in a twist over Poland and the Baltic states embracing anti-personnel land mines to hold off Russian threats. 

Taiwan's coast guard and military are training together to resist China's low-level subliminal offensive to harass and erode Taiwan's sovereignty over its own territory. 

This is the foundation of a real pivot to all of the Pacific: "Multiple logistics exercises this summer will test and enhance U.S. forces’ airlift and sealift capabilities across the Indo-Pacific, the head of U.S. Transportation Command said Friday."

It is fully appropriate and legal for the federal government to use the Army National Guard to put down ANSWER-affiliated riots (the cause changes but the Commies are constant) that state and local governments can't or won't suppress. Heck, even my signal unit had training in riot control tactics.

Britain will buy F-35A fighters to contribute to the NATO nuclear strike capability. 

Russia has deployed Tu-160 strategic bombers close to America, possibly to safeguard them from Ukrainian attack. 

A Chinese aircraft carrier entered Japans eastern Exclusive Economic Zone. While an EEZ is not the same as territorial waters, China does claim Japanese territory in the East China Sea. 

The Army put the SMASH aiming aid on a carbine for anti-drone work. This proposal pre-dates the Winter War of 2022 and has broader implications for infantry.

I was listening to a British historian say that America was losing the respect of its allies by treating them badly. Has he paid attention to what our European allies have done the last seventy years? But then, he claimed the Treaty of Versailles was extremely harsh. Hogwash.

European censorship is the canary in the coal mine, telegraphing a return to European autocracy with the risk of an EU empire becoming the Atlantic threat to America arising from within Europe rather than from Russia. 

Russian popular opinion is making the classic mistake of putting pleasure before business. Background.

Sh*t got real in L.A. as anti-deportation looting begins. 

I keep Early Bird Brief from Defense News weekday email news in my rotation, but it dilutes its usefulness with its pointless leftward slant. 

A full panic has been thrown up after Ukraine's Spider's Web drone attack wave. But the special forces are the weapon. Such attacks with direct assaults, mortars or rockets, or satchel charges have long been a threat. And shoulder-fired SAMs or even RPGs around the perimeter have raised alarms. Breathe, people.

The U.S. is adding the capability to support USVs at a Philippine naval base. 

Not wanting Canada to stink on ice, I think this is good: "Canada eyes major military investments, more non-U.S. defense partnerships " But spite is leading Ottawa to rely on logistics from overseas. 

Poland questions helicopter survivability over the battlefield. I have my doubts, too, without dramatic changes in weapons, tactics, and protection.

PPP is only one reason: "The United States accounts for over a third of the annual defense spending worldwide. But the Americans do not possess a third of all combat power worldwide." Geography and unwillingness to spend lives factor in, too. 

Not So Easy Rider: "The large-scale use of the motorbikes ceased after one such attack was caught by Ukrainian artillery and many drones. At least seventy motorbikes were lost and over a hundred Russian troops killed or wounded." It did seem insane. But thinly held lines provide small-scale opportunities.

Using civilian vehicles on the battlefield is not new. Recall the Toyota War. 

This is past already, but information on the Army's 250th birthday parade and celebration in WDC. 

Mighty sporting of the Chinese air force to reveal the PLA isn't ready to invade Taiwan. The PLA could be lying. Or it is concealing that notwithstanding shortcomings it's still good enough for CCP work. Or maybe 2027 isn't Y-Year. Also, Hegseth only said an invasion is could be imminent.

Chinese container ships in American ports could be the source of massive numbers of suicide drones to attack American ships and infrastructure. Indeed.

HIMARS gets all the press, but the new tracked M270A2 gives the Army significant range for fires. 

As a matter of history and territorial integrity, it is sadly humorous that some rioters and protesters claim California was originally Mexican territory. Hernando Cortes was unavailable for comment. Native Americans shouldn't expect land acknowledgments from their Mexican settler-colonist rulers.

Putin faces a challenge rallying ethnic Russian nationalism while relying on non-Slavs for the meat grinder in his war on Ukraine.

The president should not have invited troops to voice partisanship during his speech. I recall sergeants moving around as we prepared to listen to a Democratic governor's speech using tired troops on a hot day at Camp Grayling as a prop reminding us to refrain from booing. 

Can space platforms really suffice without new E-7 AWACS planes?

That's new: "Israel’s navy attacked docks in Yemen’s rebel-held port city of Hodeida on Tuesday[.]" Throwing an elbow for the Egyptians? Or for somebody to occupy the port. 

To be fair, the Palestinians clearly value murdering Jews more than they value running a state: "the US ambassador to Israel, has said that the US is no longer pursuing the goal of an independent Palestinian state[.]"

Scapegoating Starlink.

Sharing combat experience. 

Showing the flag: "Two Chinese aircraft carriers were spotted conducting simultaneous operations in the Pacific for the first time[.]" Sometimes I think the Chinese are trying to lure the Navy into their SINKEX. Tip to Instapundit.

More tanks, drones, air defense, intelligence collection, and naval power for the IDF after the Hamas War. 

Yes, the ruler of Syria is in danger of assassination. That's why opening up ties through him is probably going to fail. If he's faking being moderate, he will stop pretending lest radicals kill him. If he's truly moderate, radicals will kill him or radicalize him as he tries to not be killed.

Our government declined to provide that management: "That immigration is essential to America is true. That the rate at which immigration must take place and be managed is also true. ... No nation can simply open its borders to migrants and remain stable." 

CENTCOM has provided the president with strike options against Iran. As Iran is supposed to know. SO THAT HAPPENED.

War by other means: "An avowedly Communist revolutionary group with ties to a China-linked Marxist funding network has been at the forefront of organizing nationwide protests opposing illegal immigration crackdowns[.]" 

When defense money is not limitless, you must choose between force size, modernization, or readiness. In peacetime, as a rule, I weight readiness first, then force size, then modernization--but research to have prototypes for expansion is that category's priority. And have plans for rapid force size mobilization.

An Army whack-in-a-box. The AFRICOM Queen, anybody? 

DNI Gabbard should restrict herself to reforming the intelligence apparatus. Is that not enough of a task? Or did she fix that and I just didn't hear about it. FFS. 

Will immigration riots come to Europe, too? Will they? WTAF? And that's without any effort to eject criminal migrants. 

Is Iran following the path of late Soviet collapse? I refuse to get my hopes up. But just because hopes have risen before doesn't mean things can't change.

The Alawite insurgency in coastal Syria remains low level. Iraqi Baath Party officials planned their insurgency. Syrian Baathists never even imagined they'd lose power.

Hezbollah is focusing on building its own drones rather than relying on imported Iranian rockets. 

Huh: "The United States is preparing a partial evacuation of its Iraqi embassy and will allow military dependents to leave locations around the Middle East due to heightened security risks in the region, U.S. and Iraqi sources said on Wednesday." SO THAT HAPPENED.

Russia is relying on China to improve and sustain its drone force. 

Saying America will reduce its purchase of weapons for Ukraine in 2026 is not a halt. Combined with European production and foreign purchase of American weapons, could mean Ukraine will never notice the technical decrease in American appropriations.

Yellow protest signs with black letters is in the signature look of the ANSWER communists who style themselves Leninists ready to guide any protest on any subject toward violence and attempt to exert leadership over it as the vanguard of the proletariat. 

Nine nations participated in a large amphibious warfare exercise on the British coast. 

The Air Force proposes slashing F-35 purchases while it funds F-47 development.  

The F**k-Up Fairy maneuvers to be a plank owner of the Constellation frigate class. 

The Army is shifting its electronic jammer system from being an aerial system to being a ground system. 

Army aviation.

An Air India flight crashed and exploded shortly after taking off from an India airport. Until proof to the contrary is shown, I'm assuming Pakistan-backed jihadis were involved. I hope not. Because nukes on both sides are involved. 

A new, tiny Chinese combat drone. It is always tempting to just give up and say, "Fine, drones change everything!" But I still think the pattern of counter-measures will continue and dramatically reduce the ability of cheap drones to wreak havoc.

Could China island hop in the Taiwan Strait to move S-300 air defense batteries close enough to cover Taiwan itself? Hmmm. That takes time. Time Taiwan's allies need to help Taiwan. And isn't China's air force strong enough to achieve that? 

Speculation that Israel may strike Iran's nuke infrastructure. American preparations could be to ride out Iranian retaliation/threaten to join Israel's campaign if hit by Iran. SO THAT HAPPENED.

Sure, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be hard and face Taiwanese and allied counter-measures. Those arguments existed before Russia invaded Ukraine. But if China invades, they obviously think they have answers to those counter-measures. It will take a war to determine who is right. 

Breathe, people. America isn't going to invade Greenland and Denmark is an ally. Unless China takes control first. 

The birth of the United States Army--the graphic novel. 

The Air Force proposes slashing F-35 purchases to fund F-47 development. 

The UN says parts of South Sudan is on the brink of starvation. Are there Palestinians there? No? Then Greta Thunberg can't be bothered to care. 

I have long followed Denys Davydov who comments on Russia's invasion of his country on YouTube. But his severe TDS is so counter-productive for Ukraine that if I was a paranoid man I'd suspect him of being under the influence of the FSB. Just saying. Stupidity or insanity are alternative explanations.

Was DNI Tulsi Gabbard's seemingly odd nuclear war scare video that I noted in an earlier entry part of an administration plan to justify an Israeli and/or American strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure? Or it is as batsh*t crazy as it sounds.

It sounds like the outline of a U.S.-China trade deal is based on our mutual assured destruction from export bans. Who finds alternatives to the other first? 

It is insane for a lower level judge to rule that the president mobilizing National Guard troops without the permission of a governor is unconstitutional. That ruling can't--and won't--stand. 

The Army's capability to sustain itself and the joint force in INDOPACOM with watercraft is insufficient. 

Trying to counter fiber optic-controlled FPV drones. 

Congress has advised that the "Pentagon should build a network of dual-use factories designed to rapidly scale weapons[.]"

Hamas says it killed 12 Gazan combatants. Israel says they were aid workers. 

NATO is now "the central structure for coordinating military aid and training efforts, with over 60% of last year’s €50 billion in assistance now provided by European Allies and Canada." 

Some of the Slavs got too good a look at what a promised Russian "rescue" looks like: "Southeastern European countries reiterated their support for Ukraine on June 11, including Serbia signaling its willingness to improve bilateral relations with Ukraine." 

Inflation is easing. What I said a month ago: "Imports are a fraction of the economy. And tariffs take place at the port of entry at their import price. I think most of the retail price comes from the supply chain leading from the port to the point of sale. A tariff is inflationary. It just isn't 1:1." 

I don't want to hear one damn word from Ben Rhodes complaining about Israel's strikes on Iran:

 

But are they accurate details? "China recently did something unusual, they revealed details of their 8,000-ton Type 094 nuclear powered SSBN." 

Just going to note that if Iran has agents or proxies in America, that widespread protests/riots will provide cover for operations.

As the Song of ICE and Fire drama rages, let's recall the foundation of the effort, okay?

Europe is getting dangerously authoritarian with recent law enforcement: "It is a consistent pattern of European states, on a national and supranational level, to destroy any pretence to free speech." Yet Vance was out of line?

When I listen to the Russian representative to the UN Security Council berate Israel for violating norms and laws by striking Iran's nuclear facilities, I want to drop a nuke on the Kremlin. Figuratively, of course. 

For NATO states in Europe worried America won't help them, take heed that America helps allies who help themselves. 

FFS, we learned this from the eve of the 1991 Persian Gulf War, but forgot the lesson in operational security: "About an hour before Iranian state TV first reported loud explosions in Tehran, pizza orders around the Pentagon went through the roof[.]" 

Mercenaries. Although the cited Russian and Turkish mercenary groups are really a foreign legion. Others are certainly aligned. We aren't to the point where mercenaries work for anybody with the gold to pay. They've long supported American troops at war.

Unmanned sea vessels, from search and rescue to relentlessly hunting submarines. 

It's 250 years of the Army--and its Infantry branch. 

The Army is planning to begin producing the XM30 replacement for the Bradley Fighting Vehicle in late 2027. Confident of funding? 

Colombia is falling apart. How shocking when your "peace" deal with Marxist insurgents/gangsters after a multi-decade war is inviting them into the government. 

Distant countries forge a strategic partnership through China's trade route initiatives. 

Russia is having problems keeping their railroads going from sabotage plus staff and equipment shortages. 

Battling Mexican drug cartels using drones to ship drugs into America across the southern border. 

Honor the Army by funding them? Hogwash. Fund the Army because America needs it--even in the Pacific. To be fair, that initial author does argue the value, too.

As Israel fights to prevent a fanatical Iran from nuking it, don't pretend the awful and toothless Iran nuclear deal could have prevented that threat.

How we got to the Iran-Israel War of 2025. The bizarre love for the mullahs by some in America led to this.

No Golden Escalator to Strategic Nirvana

The next big thing is here! The next big thing is here!!! Star Wars Prevention!!!! 

Golden Dome will revolutionize warfare? 

Golden Dome is intended to be a family of systems – some, based on the ground – but centred around a space-based architecture. It would deploy interceptors in orbit capable of being fired from space to intercept enemy missiles during their intra-atmospheric course. These are essentially airborne targets. But once the principle is established that you can target an airborne threat from orbit, a Pandora’s Box opens: why not strike a ground-based target, or a naval target, from space? 

This is the beginning of a new era in space warfare. For the first time, the United States has made it its policy to place weapons in space that can conduct space-to-Earth strike – effectively, and eventually, bombardment from orbit. To channel President Trump’s inimitable style, this is HUGE. It is going to be a major departure for US space policy – an expensive programme, with massive industrial and strategic repercussions. [emphasis in original]

First Billy Mitchell gave us "victory through air power" hopes. Small drones gave us "victory through tiny air power" hopes. 

And now we have "victory through the 'ultimate high ground' in orbit" being unveiled. After Lord knows how much time and money, of course. 

I don't think this vision of the future is going to happen. I only hope that Golden Dome is good enough to restore the continental United States as a sanctuary for power projection. 

Or screw caution, let's just go completely nuts on this revolutionary era path! 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Main Event

After twenty months of fighting Iran's proxies and a couple direct skirmishes, Israel launched a campaign against Iran last night, with the apparent primary objective of knocking back Iran's nuclear weapons program. But I have one major worry right now. Does Iran already have nukes?

Israel went after the archer instead of just hitting the proxy arrows:

Israel launched a large-scale overnight airstrike on Iran, targeting more than 100 sites with around 200 fighter jets, according to an Israeli military spokesperson.

The operation included strikes on nuclear-related sites and killed senior military commanders and scientists.

Iran already responded with a hundred suicide drones but they seemingly were all shot down.

While Iran's nuclear program is clearly the primary target, military commanders were also killed. This could possibly be to weaken the response or perhaps to support a revolution. Although suggestions of the latter could simply be part of the former. 

Years ago, it was said that Israel would need to generate 100 aircraft sorties to knock down Iran's nuclear infrastructure. I've believed Israel could find a way, and wondered if the time had come even before the October 7, 2023 murder and rape invasion by Hamas was launched. While the attack is broader than that hypothetical strike package, already Israel has used about double that. Although some could be escorts rather than strike assets.

America's build up with ships and planes, plus the diversion of drone defense rockets originally allocated to Ukraine make more sense now. As does the recent alerts at American embassies in the region and the pull back of some Americans from vulnerable positions.

I'm assuming at least one of America's SSGNs is in position. And I now have to wonder if Israel's rare naval strike on the Houthi had a main purpose of obscuring the movement of an Israeli submarine south and out of the Red Sea to be in a position to conduct follow-up strikes after more air strikes through Arab air space are deemed politically unwise. 

Will Iran "retaliate" against American forces in the region? Are Iran's proxies ready to step up--again, after getting hammered for all this time--when Iran has let Arabs die to fight Israel thus far?

Are Marines afloat and Army troops in Djibouti ready to reinforce embassies or bases?

And if America is attacked, will American forces hammer Iranian targets, whether military or nuclear-related as punishment? 

Will Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, hurting its own oil exports? If so, are Iranian oil targets then in play? Or will America focus on supporting Gulf Arab state allies in reopening the strait? And can Red Sea alternatives for some Gulf oil exports run the Houthi gauntlet? 

I also heard that Iran will declare war on Israel, making their years-long quasi-war an open fight.  Let's hope limitations on American energy production are eliminated very quickly. 

One thing that worries me is that I've long suspected Iran's enrichment status was a red herring. Everyone knew it was Israel's red line. I thought that if Iran reached its enrichment level it would mean Iran already has nuclear missiles (quoting a post from 2009):

If Iran can announce both the ability to make nuclear bomb material and the possession of actual nuclear weapons--perhaps by detonating one in a test on their own territory--Tehran would quite possibly deter an attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

We're not dealing with idiots. If the Iranian mullahs believe there are red lines that trigger Israeli or American action, why wouldn't they take counter-actions rather than just blindly cross those lines and provide a pretext for military action against them?

Does Iran have some nukes already? Iran could have bought some from North Korea and they could have been lost in the flood of shipping containers flowing across Russia to reach the Ukraine battlefield.

Will Iran use them if they have them? And if they have them, why didn't Iran announce them to deter this anticipated Israeli strike? And if Iran doesn't have nuclear missiles and simply raced ahead to enrichment, are they idiots? 

UPDATE: ISW has a special report on the initial strikes. It will be updated.

UPDATE: Trump plays the exasperated "good cop" by urging Iran to agree to a good deal before it is too late. 

UPDATE: I wonder how much damage Iranian security people will do to Iran as they try to ferret out who helped Israel's intelligence services smuggle in and use drones in the early hours of the strikes? 

UPDATE: I wonder if the decision to pull a number of American troops out of Syria was in order to create a reserve of ground troops perhaps still "in transit" in Kuwait?

UPDATE: A RUSI analyst has the same question of scope that I had: 

The breadth and scale of these strikes — against senior Iranian officials and other military facilities in addition to nuclear sites — suggest this operation is intended to not just dissuade Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons, but also cripple any potential military response and even to destabilize the regime.

UPDATE: America helped Israel identify, track, and shoot at the incoming Iranian missiles:

The U.S. military helped defend Israel from Iranian-fired missiles Friday, a day after Tel Aviv launched a massive air attack on Iran’s military leadership and nuclear program.

I heard help consisted of a couple Navy destroyers and Army THAAD and Patriot units inside Israel.

UPDATE: Apparently, Iran can only launch 100 ballistic missiles at a time because of limited mobile launchers. 

How long before Israel can destroy some of those?  Or will Iran run out of missiles before then? But I do worry that Iran is trying to get Israel to expend anti-missiles so it can fire a nuke. I'm just unwilling to assume the Iranians are idiots. Murderous, religious nutballs? Sure. Idiots? Don't count on it.

UPDATE: Iran is everything the mullahs and their global leftist allies accuse Israel of being: 

For decades, an aggressive, quasi-imperial state has been at the centre of conflict in the Middle East. It has consistently antagonised its neighbours and in some cases threatened their very existence. And through its shadowy military operatives, it has sought to impose its will on allies and enemies alike.

I've long said Iran is the region's Gordian Knot.  

UPDATE: Asking the question, how stupid is Iran's mullah regime? Assuming the mullahs don't have nukes and use them. Which is stupid in an entirely different way--but catastrophic levels of it. 

UPDATE: Remember, Iran's obligations exist separately from the horrible and canceled Iran nuclear deal:

The International Atomic Energy Agency declared on Thursday that Iran was not complying with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations, the first time the U.N. watchdog has passed a resolution against the country in 20 years. 

UPDATE: Per the latest ISW update, Iran has launched seven waves of attacks on Israel (seemingly area attacks simply aiming at cities); while Israel continues to attack military targets in Iran, including long-range assets. Israel does not believe it has done enough to destroy the Natanz nuclear facility. Israel seems able to fly at will over Iran.

How long before Israel targets economic assets? Will it be before or after Iran interferes with oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz? 

UPDATE: Also, don't pretend the toothless Iran nuclear deal that America cancelled would have prevented the Iranian threat. 

UPDATE: How we got here. 

UPDATE: As I noted in my latest Weekend Data Dump, "Was DNI Tulsi Gabbard's seemingly odd nuclear war scare video that I noted in an earlier entry part of an administration plan to justify an Israeli and/or American strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure? Or it is as batsh*t crazy as it sounds." 

UPDATE: The long-range war is a problem for Israel. Unless Iranians overthrow the mullahs and restore friendly ties with Israel, will Israel continue to bomb any signs of Iranian nuclear revival?

And worse, will Iran move its nuclear arsenal out of reach of Israeli air power? 

UPDATE: I'm assuming the report that Trump vetoed an Israel proposal to kill Iran's Ayatollah ruler is just part of the good cop/bad cop routine. With the implied threat that Trump could cancel his veto at any time. 

UPDATE: It seems like Iran's missile pulses aimed at Israel are dramatically smaller. Israel is broadening its aerial attacks on Iranian military and security targets.

UPDATE: A pro-Iran Shia militia fired a few suicide drones at an American air base in western Iraq that American forces shot down. Unclear if this was freelance, or ordered by Tehran.

UPDATE: A weapon system we haven't seen is Israel's LORA Whack-in-a-Box. Any Israeli cargo ships with shipping containers on them nearing Iran's shores? 

UPDATE: Would the Israelis exploit their air supremacy over Iran to airlift in a battalion of paratroopers and special forces to directly attack the buried Fordow nuclear enrichment facility? 

Decades ago I read a military fiction book (Vortex!) about an American Ranger regiment that dropped on to the South African nuclear facility to seize that country's nukes. So maybe this is a concept that has just been floating around out there.

And what would a ground attack need to do to destroy Fordow? It is deeply buried to defend against air attack. Is it designed to hold off a ground attack? Would attackers need to advance deep underground? Or could ground attackers succeed in sealing off anybody underground by blowing the entries and air shafts?

Or maybe with air supremacy Israel can drop precision bombs on the same point again and again and again to drill down to the facility, making an American massive MOP carried by a B-2 unneeded.

UPDATE: I wondered and now I read this:

Iran has arrested dozens of people on suspicion of spying as fears grow in the Islamic Republic over the extent of its infiltration by Israel’s Mossad intelligence service.

I wonder how many will be executed prior to trial? I wonder how many will have been guilty as charged?

UPDATE: By killing nuclear scientists during its campaign, Israel seems to be taking care of one concern I have long had about using military power only as "the last resort":

And while many here continue to insist that military action must be the last resort, the more the knowledge of nuclear weaponry becomes deeply embedded within Iran. More people acquire the knowledge of how to proceed and unless we kill them all, destroying buildings is the least effective way to slow them down. Iran can rebuild structures if they have the scientists and technicians who take decades to train ready to pick up the pieces. Indeed, Iran could rebuild in other countries and subcontract various stages of the work in locations that may be immune to future attacks.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: The image of an incoming Iranian missile Israeli defensive rockets is from the article. [I did wonder why slow drones were leaving streaks but assumed some missiles must have been in the Iranian strike, but not reported. And perspective can give the illusion of descending.]

Will Terrorists Use a Bomb-Share Service?

Terrorists have a better option than a wave of small suicide drones as Ukraine pulled off against Russian air bases deep in Russia if the targets are in American cities. Large robotic taxis fitted out as vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs).

LA rioters summoned driver-less Waymo taxis in order to set the EVs on fire: 

Authorities say that at least five Waymos were vandalized and set on fire, forcing the Alphabet-owned company to temporarily suspend ride-hailing service in Los Angeles and San Francisco. Waymo says there’s no evidence their cars were specifically targeted, but being able to summon one by app just to burn it? That’s not a bug, that’s a feature, at least to your average street radical.

As reported, service was suspended in response. The author wonders what could have happened if the rioters had planned a bigger use of the Waymos before alerting companies and officials. 

But what if next time Waymos are summoned by more professional rioters--or enemy special forces or intelligence agents--in the pre-H Hour quiet to be VBIEDs in a wave of simultaneous strikes before the EVs can be turned off? Toss in "luggage" when the ride shows up, send the robot EV on its way, and detonate the bombs either with timers or remotely at the target.

Mayhem to follow. 

Have a super sparkly day. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: Photo of a burning Waymo in LA from the cited article: AP Photo/Eric Thayer.

How Convenient

Chinese scientific analysis tells the Chinese Communist Party that their plan to achieve the China Dream of dominance can't be stopped.

China's "scientific analysis" claims foreign "resistance is futile". :

Time moves relentlessly in one direction. Nothing else does. In some cases, the direction of travel is upward (升); in others, it is in reverse (逆). There is, however, an overall direction (大方向). The Party, in a white paper on “China’s National Security in the New Era” (新时代的中国国家安全), now tells us with confidence that that direction aligns with its vision: “The historic tide … is unstoppable; the overall direction of human development and progress, and the overall logic of world history, have not changed” (历史潮流不可阻挡，人类发展进步的大方向、世界历史曲折前进的大逻辑没有变) (State Council Information Office, May 12).

Is the scientific analysis sure about what the overall direction is?

I'm sure that's the information flowing through the Neican system to the top of the CCP (quoting an article):

But this internal system is struggling to give frank assessments as Chinese leader Xi Jinping consolidates his power, making it risky for anyone to directly question the party line even in confidential reports, a dozen Chinese academics, businesspeople and state journalists said in interviews with The Associated Press. 

And don't you dare claim the Chinese have some near-genetic ability to plan their rise to dominance. 

You have to admit that claiming the rise of China--one day--is inevitable excuses a lot of ef ups in the imperial bureaucracy, eh? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

Drawing a Power Line in the Sea Against a Revived Ottoman Empire

The Eastern Question is up for grabs. What will the alliance structure look like in the eastern Mediterranean Sea?

Greece is moving beyond NATO to secure itself from Turkish power:

Greece announced Monday it has completed the work on an undersea power cable link connecting the mainland to the island of Crete, a key step in its ambitious plan for a wider expansion of the grid in the Eastern Mediterranean that will eventually include Cyprus and Israel.

The European Union is funding it to diversify energy imports away from Russia. But I see this as Greece and Cyprus providing a Plan B in the eastern Mediterranean to replace America's Incirlik air base should Turkey continue to move away from NATO and pursue Ottoman glories.

Israel gets an ally against the increasingly Islamist Turkey under Erdogan. The days when secular Turkey was an ally of Israel are gone. 

Where is Turkey heading? Does the lack of a land frontier with Russia give Turkey the space to ally with historic enemy Russia rather than need NATO to hold off Russia/USSR?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Map from https://www.defence-point.gr/news/toyrkia-geopolitiki-quot-gkriza-zoni-quot-synoro-tis-dysis-ellada-kypros-israil.

The Winter War of 2022 is a Means to an End

Putin has long wanted to rebuild the Russian empire. Ukraine was supposed to be an easy big bite that demoralized and broke NATO. The massive casualties and failure to overrun Ukraine in three years let alone three days in those early optimistic days in the Kremlin bunker may be forcing Putin to emphasis the bigger NATO objective to justify the massive costs.

Russia continues to attack Ukraine with every crippled soldier, Mad Max car, and North Korean rocket it can scrape together.  A new invasion in the Sumy area of northeast Ukraine is the latest Big Push.

This sounds about right:

For Russia, this war has never been about conquering this or that piece of Ukrainian territory, about the language rights of the Russian minority living in Ukraine, or—as many critics of the war seem to believe—about keeping Ukraine out of NATO. Nor has the US policy of NATO enlargement into post-communist Eastern Europe and the Baltic States after the Cold War been the true casus belli for Moscow. From the start, for Vladimir Putin and his inner circle in the Kremlin, this has been a war for the restoration of the Russian empire, one that Putin, in effect, declared at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 when he rejected the security order the West has built, and when he later opined that the disintegration of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century.  

It disturbs me that the "Blame America" crowd that used to be exclusively a left-wing phenomenon has found a home in part of the right. I can't catch a break. Somebody is always available to call me a war monger for wanting to resist Russia (or their Soviet predecessors).

But I digress. 

The Russians are bastards. But I'd put business before pleasure if they'd pull their head out of their Putin to face the real threat common to Russia and America--China under Xi whose China Dream is a nightmare for both the West and Russia's territorial integrity and claims to great power status.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: The map is from ISW.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: America is Not Defending Europe

In case you missed it on Substack: South Korea as a Power Projection Platform

In case you missed it on Substack: Is Putin Embracing China to Expand Russia's Empire?

In case you missed it on Substack: Why Will the Navy Sail in Harm's Way?

Via Instapundit: "Why don’t we have modulars for ships? A warehouse of CIWS guns ready to bolt onto merchant ships in wartime? Containerized weapons?" You can't say I haven't tried. 

Killing jihadis is fun and easy: "The U.S. military has carried out more than two dozen airstrikes on targets in Somalia in the first five months of this year, double the total number of strikes in 2024."

The U.S. has brought up the idea of selling an export version of a new F-47 to Japan. 

Guess who Russia is honoring now? 

The Navy will begin fielding an anti-ship Tomahawk cruise missile by September. Is this sub-sonic missile a "game changer"? Sure, every missile counts toward overwhelming Chinese navy defenses ... 

America's friends in Oman.

China spies on American forces in the Philippines using fishing and tourism as cover. 

Is it a "grave mistake" to lift American sanctions on Syria when it is run by Sunni jihadis who are projecting an image of reasonableness? Probably. But our Gulf Arab allies likely want to bring a Sunni-run Syria back into the fold rather than risk it returning to Iran's orbit. We won't change the regime, eh?

As we watch Russia squirm after Ukraine smashed up its long-range bomber fleet, let's not get cocky. Pearl Harbor is a danger right now, not just on December 7, 1941. CONUS is no longer a sanctuary. 

Psychological traits to excel in basic training.

The AI and similar but simpler ML (machine learning) drone revolution has not yet appeared in the Winter War of 2022. 

Keep in mind that the Ukrainians almost certainly had foreign help with intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance for their spectacular special forces drone attack. Google Earth won't cut it for something like this.   

The Yemen clusterf**k.

America puts limits on using the weapons it sells. China has no limits. America likes the status quo while China--which has prospered under the status quo--bizarrely doesn't care if the status quo is disrupted. 

Learning to use small drones in the Army.

During the Iraq War, insurgents would set up rockets in vehicles that were disposable weapons to attack an American base. These were basically unguided suicide drones, no? Ground-based Phalanx were used to defend against such rocket (or mortar) attacks. Could Phalanx down suicide drones?

Are South Korean voters in a circular firing squad mood?

Romanians are divided on admiring or fearing Russia. Don't forget that in the Cold War, Romania wasn't considered the most reliable member of the Warsaw Pact. My memory is that Romanian air defenses were more aligned to oppose the Soviet Union.  

Much as America reacted to persistent enemy terrorism and insurgency with the timely Iraq Surge COIN strategy and Awakening that flipped the Sunni Arab tribes to our side, Israel is going into Gaza to stay. Will the Gaza clans be the source of an Awakening there?

Paris deadly soccer-inspired riots? It's always something. 

A UN aid convoy was brutally attacked, resulting in multiple casualties! Damn the Israelis! Wait. What? It was in Sudan? Never mind. 

Ukraine has run out of missiles for its SAMP/T air defense batteries; and Italy's decision to increase missile production won't fix that problem for quite some time.

America will reduce its military presence in Syria to one base at Hasakah in the northeast. Supposedly this rejects a century of American policy toward Syria. It has been the same since the place was a French colony? I learn something new every day.

What the Army does. Timely for the 250th anniversary. 

As a rule, I'd rather Europeans focus on punching Russia instead of poking China.

Act of war: "Federal agents have arrested a University of Michigan scholar from China on charges she tried to smuggle a biological pathogen into the United States characterized as a potential agricultural terrorism weapon that can be used for targeting food crops." Tip to Instapundit.

America has too many FOGOs and too few skilled in kinetic warfare rather than joint political warfare. In World War II there were fewer than 10 stops between a grunt and the top officer. Today it is 20+

Hmm: "China is undergoing an unprecedented series of economic, demographic and medical disasters." Interesting that China's flawed Covid 19 vaccine was discovered to be "hurting more than helping."

I don't trust CATO or the Quincy Institute to value defending America. FFS, Golden Dome will never get good enough to stop a serious nuclear attack. At best it will provide a limited defense for our ability to project power overseas. 

The transition from Minuteman III to Sentinel.

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 did not say Taiwan has no right to independence. It only said mainland China should own the existing UN seat. Are countries starting to act on that reality?

Win the Army reconnaissance-strike battle before massing to maneuver. Start by reversing the decision to get rid of infantry division cavalry squadrons..  

Well it's not like Sudan is the Queen of the Victim Prom!

The forum for foreign policy conventional wisdom faceplants on Gaza. Israel is not escalating the war--Hamas did that with a rape, murder, and kidnap invasion 20 months ago. Nor is Israel creating a "forever war". Hamas did that, too. Israel is trying to end the war once and for all. Good hunting, I say. 

An idea so crazy it just might work! Please alert the Germans.

Problems in the former Soviet Union. Russia is the most obvious as it tries to reclaim its title of Upper Volta with (fingers crossed, comrades!) nukes. 

The orange-hued end of the long American century? LOL. In the future, when people speak of the American Century, you'll need to ask them to be more specific. 

Can the Chinese maintain the memory of Tienanmen Square and China's bloody suppression of calls for liberty in the face of legal warfare? I assume China wants robots to replace potentially unreliable soldiers for carrying out the next bloodbath.

The Air Force tested a 500-pound anti-ship JDAM as part of their Quicksink program. How many could a B-21 carry?

Best buddies: "'Kim Jong Un affirmed that the government of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea will, in the future, too, unconditionally support the stand of Russia and its foreign policies,' it said, using the North's official name." Very interesting.

America still supports NATO: "'There are no plans at the moment for the US to withdraw troops,' said Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General[.]" 

Japan responded to the Doolittle Raid with a determination to sail off to Midway to finally crush America's Navy. Will Russia do something similar after Ukraine's Spider's Web operation? 

Making it a NATO lake: "Poland and the Baltic states are accelerating efforts to acquire new submarines and vessels that will broaden their capabilities suitable for the sea’s shallow waters." 

Keep Ukraine's air and sea drone achievements in context: "One of the more intangible but vital items Ukraine received from NATO was a constant stream of data on where the Russian forces were and what they were up to." 

The Army is looking at advanced obscurants to degrade enemy sensors. I saluted the cited author's article at the time. More countermeasures to degrade small, cheap drones will arrive.

Establishing logistics to fight ashore in INDOPACOM. The author notes that few address land warfare in that region. I'm one of them. Obscure. But still published on that unpopular issue. 

Will France fight this Battle of Tours 2.0? "France is now facing 'below-the-radar Islamism trying to infiltrate institutions, whose ultimate aim is to tip the whole of French society under sharia law.'" The problem has long been obvious.

Putin has no way out of his invasion of Ukraine? Putin may not be interested in peace. But peace may be very interested in Putin. And yeah, Putin absolutely has a way out. 

Is there much point in debating the defense priorities of the British Strategic Defense Review? "Much of what it suggests will cost money – almost certainly more money that the current government has budgeted." But focusing on Europe instead of a global trade-supporting role is good post February 2022.

The Air Force and Army are looking forward to hypersonic missiles. 

Another BRAC process starting? Three rounds of that required my attention in the Michigan State Legislature, defending Michigan bases. 

Fear is the beginning of European wisdom: "NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Ministers would focus on air and missile defence, long-range weapons, logistics, and large land manoeuvre formations."

America continues to work with allies in Iraq and Syria to kill ISIL jihadis. 

USNI embeds with the Philippine Coast Guard in the South China Sea. I did want this kind of exposure. 

The Gaza Awakening? "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel has 'activated' some clans of Palestinians in Gaza that are opposed to Hamas[.]" 

From the "Well, Duh" files: "The U.S. Air Force needs to do more to protect its Indo-Pacific bases, including from evolving threats such as drones, according to a California-based think tank." Or from the "I Can't Believe You Needed a Think Tank to Tell You That" files.

ROK in space. 

Battlefield drones evolve. 

Optimism about Serbia. Has Russia lost some more Slavs allegedly in need of rescue by Moscow?

Xi's willing accomplices (hat tip): "For years, China has been engaged in a systematic effort to target U.S. universities, using Chinese students to conduct extensive espionage and intellectual property theft on elite campuses across the United States — which has helped fuel China’s technological and military growth." 

Not a shock: "The largest commercial shipping companies continue to avoid the Red Sea and Suez Canal, despite a recent cease-fire agreement between the United States and Houthis intended to make the trade lanes safer." I did warn about the limits of even serious bombardment.

North Korean troops fighting for Russia are getting experience. But does it matter? "North Korea currently has one of the world’s largest armies with over a million soldiers, few of whom do anything except serve as slave labor for superior officers." 

The LSM to move Marine SIFs around is almost "shovel ready". But is it PLAN ready? 

Pity the new radar couldn't have been designed to fit in the existing F-35 fuselage.

The Budget Wars begin. Gotta say I didn't expect the Navy to lose a battle. 

Should Golden Dome be based on commercial services?

I'm not going to say that trolling for internal terror threats isn't useful to catch and deter terrorists of all stripes. But damn it, the capability can all too easily be turned against political opponents. I don't know how to have one without the other. 

Corruption is the unifying factor causing energy-rich Iraq to have inadequate domestic energy and other basic services. I had hoped a foundation of domestic energy would help Iraq repel Iranian influence. Consider my Pucker Factor elevated.

I'm always conflicted about reports of China's massive military modernization. While I suspect there is some level of hollowness, I also don't think the PLA has to be as awesome as advertised to be victorious. 

Religion of Peace® update: "Over the last fifty years, Islamic terrorism has accounted for 85 percent of all terrorist related deaths. Nearly 70,000 attacks killed over a quarter million people." We're collateral damage in an Islamic civil war over whether the killers represent Islam or not.

The China-Taiwan spy war.

Please do not try to generalize lessons of a long-planned special operations attack using infiltrated small drones. 

That seems prudent: "Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is evidently making good on an election campaign pledge to reclaim the Port of Darwin, a harbor in Australia’s Northern Territory, from Chinese control."

The mission was not defeating Islamist terrorists: "The Wagner Group has announced it is withdrawing from Mali following what it called 'the completion of its main mission' in the West African country." The mission was sending migrants flowing into Europe.