Weekend Data Dump

Well that was stupid: "The Pentagon did not keep adequate track of funds awarded to Chinese research labs or other countries that could have been used to enhance pathogens of pandemic potential[.]" But let's not gloss over the greater stupidity of paying China to work on potentially deadly pathogens.

The aggressor will have to pay a bit, anyway: "EU approves up to €1.4B military aid to Ukraine from Russian frozen assets[.]"

Maybe Plan B could be defeating Russia in Ukraine: "The top U.S. general is making a rare trip to Africa to discuss ways to preserve some of the U.S. presence in West Africa after Niger decided to kick out the U.S. military in favour of partnering with Russia in a major setback for Washington."

South China Sea: "The president of the Philippines said Sunday his country would not yield to 'any foreign power' after Chinese forces injured Filipino navy personnel and damaged at least two military boats with machetes, axes and hammers ... but added the Philippines would never instigate a war."

Oh? "France would support the Lebanese Armed Forces should Beirut decide to deploy them on a security mission to the southern border with Israel, a move that could prompt Paris to renew a push for international aid to the government forces, according to a French official." UNIFAIL sure isn't doing that.

No silver bullet, but another bullet: "American army and marines are planning to issue more [small Switchblade suicide drones] to their own troops for use as a standard weapon, like existing rocket launchers and portable anti-tank weapons." And thousands more will be sent to Ukraine.

Collateral damage: "EW (Electronic Warfare) in Ukraine, the Middle East and northwestern Russia as a result of military operations has caused significant problems for ships, aircraft and cross country vehicles in roadless areas that depend on satellite navigation systems to get where they need to go."

Maybe we could blockade China long enough to win. But "Chinese manufacturers are deeply embedded in U.S. defense systems, providing critical technology and raw materials used in everything from air-to-air missiles to fighter jets." So, there's that.

Machine guns in ball turrets? "The US Air Force is asking industry for help for potentially carrying defensive systems aboard mobility aircraft that can fend off small drones."

Sure, if China ordered Russia to help, Russia would salute and comply: "If China were to invade Taiwan, it is likely that Russia would provide Beijing with military, economic, or political assistance." Would China suggest it needed a mere vassal's help to absorb Taiwan? And maybe Xi just isn't that into Putin.

If we help the forces of good: "The current wave of authoritarian rule will not deny Georgians their European and democratic futures. Nor will it deter the West from supporting these ambitions." 

Yeah, and destroying Nazism didn't attack the embodiment of the German people: "Hamas is not and never has been a national-independence movement. It is above all an intransigent, religious movement set on the destruction of Israel." Sorry to go Godwin, but when the Jew-killing fits ... 

Are closer Russia-North Korea ties a monkey in the wrench of Russia-China relations? 

LOL! Mundane sea mines have to be respected now that they are delivered by the belle of the ball: "Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels are laying undersea mines that have already damaged several Russian warships in the Black Sea[.]"

I can't celebrate this: "The death toll in the attack by Islamic militants in Russia's southern region of Dagestan has risen to 21 after a wounded police officer has died in a hospital, officials said Tuesday." But Putin should realize America's war on terror wasn't a war of choice. Islamism--not Ukraine--is the enemy.

Death from above: "Four U.S. Marine F-35B Lighting II dropped seven GBU-32 500-pound guided bombs on targets floating off the coast of Western Luzon in the South China Sea in a first-of-its-kind bilateral exercise last week." Bilateral with the Philippines.

So long and thanks for all the fish: "The U.S. will have fully cleared out of one air base in Niger as it continues to move personnel and equipment from the African country ahead of a September deadline to complete its withdrawal[.]"

More baskets for our eggs: "Marines began flying again from Peleliu, this time with an eye towards its value in the modern Pacific theater."

What's up in Turkey? Also, PKK is apparently shooting down Turkish drones with Iranian-made suicide drones. You know where I stand on that--fighter drones!

Hamas. A lot of Westerners claim Israel fell into a Hamas "trap" by attacking Hamas which uses human shields to make Israel look bad. I think that's silly. But I've heard that on October 7th Hamas actually wanted to destroy Israel and take over the West Bank--not set a trap. Makes more sense. I'll watch for that.

Fire at will: "Western supplies of artillery shells, slowed by months of political wrangling in Washington before finally being released, have started to reach Ukrainian units on the front lines, relieving pressure on forces outnumbered by the Russians."

China makes another friend: "Chinese and Japanese coast guard vessels engaged in a stand off in around a group of disputed islands in the East China Sea on Monday, according to statements from both countries." Brilliant!

Halt! or we'll yell "halt!" again! "The Philippine government has adopted a cautious approach to aggressive Chinese coast guard actions in the South China Sea, and the Biden administration has filed formal diplomatic protests with Beijing, a senior State Department official said on Monday."

We don't have enough airlift, so naturally "Boeing has unveiled the innovative REVOLVER launcher system. It is expected to become a game-changer that can transform the C-17 Globemaster III into a formidable hypersonic missile carrier." I eagerly await the B-2 cargo pallet sling system.

Turkey throws fellow Moslem Uighurs under the bus to improve relations with China. I don't want to hear another damn word about Gazans from the Turks.

So Russians accept the bloody yoke forever? "The outlook remains bleak for ordinary Russian people. But Putin doesn’t care. As long as he gets to continue his Ukrainian campaign, it doesn’t matter. In Russia, nothing matters." Or do cracks shatter suddenly? Wagner's lesson may be when you strike a czar, kill him.

Look here and here--but don't you dare look there: "Lebanese government officials took more than 100 foreign diplomats and journalists on a tour Monday of the country’s only international airport in a bid to refute a British newspaper report alleging that the facility was being used to store Hezbollah weapons."

Huh: "Two B-52 bombers from Barksdale Air Force Base flew a mission in the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility last week, a relatively rare trip below the equator."

I wrongly assumed they were already there to help with maintenance and repair: "The Biden administration is moving toward lifting a de facto ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine[.]" Or I forgot they haven't been there.

Wait. What? "Senior U.N. officials have warned Israel that they will suspend the world body’s aid operations across Gaza unless Israel acts urgently to better protect humanitarian workers[.]" One would assume this means aid workers need Israeli protection from Hamas. But Israel gets the warning?

Russia's war economy. 

How will Mexico's political changes affect U.S.-Mexico relations?

Nothing to see. Move along: "[DHS] has identified over 400 immigrants who have come to the U.S. from Central Asia and elsewhere as 'subjects of concern' because they were brought by an ISIS-affiliated human smuggling network[.]" We caught 150. Golden Age 2.0, anybody? Gosh! How did hopenchange fail!

More AMPVs, the M113 successor. 

Nice. I guess: "The U.S. Army said it fired its newly fielded Precision Strike Missile from the Pacific island of Palau and engaged a moving target at sea[.]" But isn't that what the Marines are doing? What about the Army's core competency in INDOPACOM, as I asked in this Military Review article.

Ugh: "The Air Force has fired the head of its program to build the next intercontinental ballistic missile—whose projected costs have ballooned to $131 billion." Still, firing the officer is better than pretending nothing is wrong. We should probably just ask SpaceX to design it.

From the "Well, Duh" files: "North Korean soldiers sent to aid Russia in Ukraine would be 'cannon fodder,' the Pentagon said." For Kim Jong-Un, that's a feature and not a bug. He'd get money, food, and technology--plus kill off potentially rebellious young men in a far off war rather than risk the alternative.

Sure, we should not send aid to the Taliban: "We are $35 trillion in debt and do not need to be funding our enemies one bit." Let Pakistan and its new Chinese buddies pay for humanitarian aid. But where was the recognition that the Taliban are our enemy back in the summer of 2021 when we skedaddled?

Will AI weapons eclipse nuclear weapons? Hard to say. Precision weapons have already replaced the smallest tactical nukes in Western militaries. So maybe they could replace more--if not all--nukes. But it's possible I don't have a good enough imagination to anticipate the kind of destruction AI will inflict.

After I noted that unusual B-52 flight in SOUTHCOM, I see this: "An attempted military coup took place in Bolivia on Wednesday as the South American country’s president urged its citizens to mobilize." Related?

Is America losing a race for better munitions? "As the global strategic environment worsens, the race to innovate in the domain of energetic materials —crucial components of modern weaponry — is only going to become more intense."

Did we give this to Ukraine to test it out? "The 2-CT Hawkeye consists of a 105 mm Howitzer mounted on a Humvee and is described by its producer, Indiana-based AM General, as the lightest, most maneuverable self-propelled Howitzer in the world." A "soft recoil" system works on light vehicles.

Our former military pilots really shouldn't train Chinese pilots. Really shouldn't. Now if those former Western military pilots want to fly ... .

Yeah: "Russia has been making a lot of headlines but not much else. The economy is a mess, it has fewer allies and the future looks dim." Russia hates being ignored more than it wants to be prosperous. That's a danger to and an opportunity for Ukraine.

Our security is down and our ability to pay to restore it is lower. And don't think things can't get worse economically.

Huh: "Ukraine is going to sign a security pact with the European Union, the country's president Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Thursday." Ukraine should understand that the EU doesn't give a damn about Ukraine's security. What it wants is the authority to have a security pact with Ukraine.

Listen you evil morons, relations are bad because you invaded a country: "The Kremlin said on Thursday that Russia is considering a possible downgrading of diplomatic relations with the West due to the deeper involvement of the United States and its allies in the Ukraine war[.]" So annoying. And evil. And morons.

So: "Secretary Austin reaffirmed the ironclad U.S. commitment to the Philippines following dangerous actions on June 17 by the People's Republic of China (PRC) against lawful operations by the Philippines to deliver humanitarian supplies to service members stationed at the BRP Sierra Madre."

Okay, I'm hearing that apparently the deal would be for North Korea to send engineering units to work for Russia in occupied Ukrainian territory. North Korea would be paid, of course. But that lacks the second bird with one stone aspect.

Because poachers would never sell poisoned products to anybody: "In an effort to make them useless to poachers, researchers are implanting radioactive isotopes into the horns of rhinos in South Africa." And as a bonus we'll get false alarms at detectors intended to prevent nuclear terrorism! Aren't experts grand?

Stop acting like we want a new 9/11 (tip to Instapundit.)! "A recent report published by [DHS] said that under the Biden administration, U.S. Customs and Border Protection management pressured officers to allow vehicles to cross from Mexico without proper inspection." Mission accomplished. 

So? "There are presently no internationally accepted criteria for determining whether a nation state cyberattack is a use of force equivalent to an armed attack, which could trigger a military response." If we blow up hackers, we basically define the threshold, no? Although we need to understand it applies to "us."

Reach out and touch someone: "GMLRS ER has had multiple successful flight tests leading up to the production decision. The extended range version can reach 150-plus kilometers compared to the 70-kilometer range capability of GMLRS."

Commissars in a separate but superior chain of command wreck a military: "The U.S. military and Pentagon have turned into a 'vast DEI bureaucracy' under the Biden administration, according to a study released on Tuesday." We're wrecking our military. There is no right to victory. Unless that's the plan. 

Hurting Russian weapons production relies on "identifying key bottlenecks and opportunities for disruption, communicating these opportunities to the private sector, and then synchronising and sequencing enforcement action to maximise the disruptive effect on Russian industry." Make it so. 

CONUS is not a sanctuary for power projection: "The Defense Department’s IT agency is shoring up the military’s infrastructure to better withstand attacks as China looks for ways to disrupt everyday life in the United States during a conflict, Lt. Gen. Robert Skinner said Wednesday." 

Commanders and staff met while the ship was at Manila: "The USS Blue Ridge, the 7^th Fleet flagship, steamed into Manila this month for a port call, its first since 2019, the day after Chinese and Philippine sailors clashed at a disputed reef in the South China Sea." And the U.S. ambassador. Is something up?

Are we fighting the war on terror or observing it? "More than five years after the Islamic State group lost its last enclave of territory, U.S. troops remain deployed to Iraq and Syria to prevent ISIS from rising from its ashes." Because we only seem to observe Iran's jihadi proxies.

This will keep Italy's submarine fleet at eight boats: "Italy has signed a €500 million ($535 million) deal to buy its fourth and final U-212 NFS submarine to be built by state-controlled Italian shipyard Fincantieri."

Hmmm: "Starting in 2023 the proportion of casualties inflicted by UAVs in the Ukraine war soared to more than those inflicted by artillery, and in 2024 an outright majority of all casualties have been inflicted by UAVs." I read that drone kills are up because of the shortage of Ukrainian artillery shells. We'll see.

It always frustrated me that post-2015 Democrat outrage was matched by their ignorance--and denial--of Russian/Soviet disinformation going back to the Cold War: "Most of what we now know of Russian Cold War disinformation methods and their success was documented after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991"

Not to drift into politics (tip to Instapundit): "Telling people they didn't see what they saw is not the way to respond to [the debate]." But Ben Rhodes is one to talk, and I absolutely don't want that vile man and his dezinformatsiya aimed at the American public anywhere near our foreign policy again.

Huh: "Temu—the Chinese shopping app that has rapidly grown so popular in the US that even Amazon is reportedly trying to copy it—is "dangerous malware" that's secretly monetizing a broad swath of unauthorized user data[.]" China is a-hole. Tip to The Morning Briefing. 

No! Way! "New evidence indicates that, contrary to claims by top U.S. officials and international media, the Gaza Strip is not on the precipice of a widespread famine that Western experts claimed would endanger millions of innocent Palestinians." 

Taliban jihadis take a victory lap: "International consensus against recognizing the Taliban is fraying at a startling speed." Maybe if we didn't subsidize the Taliban regime with large amounts of money. The time to hold a firm line was in 2001.

Can we alter that? "Russian elites have learned to stop worrying about the conflict. They have concluded that the invasion, even if they do not support it outright, is a tolerable fact of life. As a result, the odds that they might challenge the Kremlin’s decisions—which were always slim—have gone away entirely."

LOL: "The M10 Booker aims to revolutionize how U.S. Army light infantry units fight. It will have the ability to deploy rapidly aboard C-17 cargo jets right alongside the troops it was designed to support." The part about deploying rapidly via C-17s is actually hilariously optimistic.

The ship is carrying F-35Bs. But not MV-22s for troop transport: "The U.S. Navy amphibious assault ship USS Wasp and the Marines aboard are being sent to the eastern Mediterranean to serve as a deterrent and provide the U.S. military with options[.]" But MV-22s or helicopters could be flown to the ship if needed.

China strangles Taiwan: "The authors maintain that if the United States and its allies don’t determine better ways to challenge Beijing’s 'gray-zone campaign,' then they could find Taiwan’s autonomy and the United States’ credibility 'both greatly diminished,' even without war." This might be the way.

Is the Biden initiative to get a Israel-Saudi peace deal just a means to hobble those two countries while strengthening Iran? It's plausible.

EU voting farce: "Its leaders, its policies and its laws are decided not by public consent, but by backroom talks and horsetrading, through processes that are deliberately labyrinthine and opaque, and impossible for the lay citizen to get his or her head around." Kill this beast. With bonus Von der Leyen bashing. 

Modern war: "In Ukraine a Russian offensive in early May featured a rare disruption of the SpaceX Starlink communications service that the Ukrainian forces had become heavily dependent on for radio communications and video feeds from drones, ground forces and aircraft."

Pakistan continues to support jihadis who attack India, but India has far fewer problems than Pakistan, where the host is dying. 

I'm concerned by USMC changes--especially its breadth. Marines are, too: "This framework, Vision 2035, emphatically repudiates the underlying tenets of Force Design and calls for the restoration of offensive operations and combined arms capabilities to enable global response across the spectrum of conflict."

A lot to gather and sift: "Under the auspices of Northern Raven—US Army Europe and Africa’s multinational open-source intelligence (OSINT) program—thirty analysts representing eleven countries had gathered in Finland to collect OSINT, guided by a collection plan developed six months earlier."

Digging in along the Russian and Belarus borders makes keeping Ukraine free important: "EUROPE is looking to build a giant 1,500 mile defensive line to protect itself from a chilling Vladimir Putin invasion." 

To be fair, Putin claims he's at war with NATO: "Russia’s defense minister ordered officials to prepare a 'response' to U.S. drone flights over the Black Sea, the ministry said Friday, in an apparent warning that Moscow may take forceful action to ward off the American reconnaissance aircraft."

Can Russia afford it? "President Vladimir V. Putin declared on Friday that Russia would produce new intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles and then decide whether to deploy them within range of NATO nations in Europe and American allies in Asia." China is also in Asia. But that's not mentioned.

Russia believes the Sea of Azov is a bastion that protects its surface ships from Ukrainian USVs. This highlights a potential USV and UUV threat to Russia--penetrating its SSBN bastions. Which is a serious problem for Russia.

The only reason to do this is to kill Americans: "Nicaragua’s dictatorship announced last Friday the opening of diplomatic relations with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, governed by the Taliban since 2021." Oh, there may be other reasons. But that's the one. Reagan should have bombed Daniel Ortega.

The West shouldn't try to break up the fissure-prone Russia-China relationship. It's true they are frenemies with benefits. But while we shouldn't try to bribe either one--predators will never be sated--we should throw sand in the gears of their relationship to increase the existing friction. And yes, herd the cats.

NATO shouldn't be trying to ration military power between itself and Ukraine. NATO should be ramping up defense production! If war is imposed on the West, we'll need every bullet and armored vehicle we can produce.

CVE: "China is building a small aircraft carrier that will carry and use droves (UAVS) instead of manned aircraft." If we play our cards right, we update our strike capabilities to replace our small and aging fleet while China is stuck with their large, shiny, new fleet. Network-centric, baby!

Fear of Russia (coming in) and America (going out) prods NATO to boost defense capabilities. 

Bizarrely, Macron thought it wise to debate his record now: "France faces a stark choice in its upcoming election, with a leading pollster showing the far-right National Rally ahead with 36% of the vote, followed by the leftist New Popular Front coalition at 29%. Macron’s coalition trails at third with 19.5%[.]".

If mobile, protected firepower is vital, you need a tank: "a slew of new tank designs are emerging from European drawing boards. This is partly spurred by the Ukraine war, which has seen the most intense armored warfare in Europe since 1945." Also, the French-German MGCS project may not be trusted.

Russia learned from its invasion of Ukraine that NATO isn't ready for war. But Ukraine's resistance keeps Russia from exploiting that. So Russia resorts to sabotage: "Russia was resorting to a campaign of sabotage as an alternative to a full-on war with NATO, which would be disastrous for Russia."

Why does a “rational discussion” about the Russian threat always take the form of minimizing the threat from the state that has started the first large-scale conventional war in Europe since 1945? But I expect no less from Irresponsible Statecraft.

Uncertainty about the size of the PLA.

Unexpected guest: “A U.S. Coast Guard cutter on routine patrol in the Bering Sea came across several Chinese military ships in international waters but within the U.S. exclusive economic zone, officials said.” 

What? “As President Joe Biden and U.S. officials get down to business with NATO allies in Washington, D.C., this week, one question lurks over the entire proceedings—Is there any head-of-state in Europe who can actually claim a leadership role on the continent?” A pan-European leader is the last thing we need.

Sustaining a NATO Fight Against Russia

Russia's war against Ukraine has certainly highlighted the importance of logistics to sustain a fight beyond the first week. NATO is making progress on establishing supply lines to do that.

 NATO is finally making real progress on getting U.S. forces to the fight: 

Nato is developing multiple 'land corridors' to rush US troops and armour to the front lines in the event of a major European ground war with Russia.

American soldiers would land at one of five ports and be channelled along pre-planned logistical routes to confront a possible attack by Moscow, officials told The Telegraph.

I noted this plan some months ago. Oddly one issue that the initial article highlights is the red tape:

In these corridors, national militaries will not be restricted by local regulations and will be free to transport consignments without normal restrictions.

Which seems ridiculous for a wartime emergency. But the bureaucrats are supreme, I guess.

Of course, logistics routes will be useful for European NATO states sending forces east.

Russia provoked the NATO effort to end the eastern Europe logistics desert. 

Now all we need to do is produce the trained troops and materiel to send east down those corridors.

UPDATE: Related:

NATO members are now agreeing that peace can only be maintained if NATO members upgrade their armed forces and show Russia that NATO is not unprepared and attacking NATO, which includes the United States and Canada, would be a costly mistake and lead to failure.

UPDATE: I randomly ran across a post I looked for but failed to find that I wanted to use to highlight the bizarre red tape problem:

The European Union may reduce the red tape and infrastructure problems that would slow the movement of NATO forces from the core regions of power weighted to the west to the vulnerable states in the new NATO states in the east.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

The Issue Is Surface Ship Survivability and Not Anti-Ship USVs and UAVs

Guys, find a woman who looks at you the way analysts look at suicide unmanned surface vessels (USVs) and suicide unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

USVs and UAVs are changing the character of naval warfare? Hmmm. Sure, they're new. But citing the Black Sea campaign to emphasize the impact of USVs is misleading. The USVs need NATO expensive ISR and targeting networks. The USVs are really just slow surface torpedoes.  

Wouldn't an ASuROC work better? 

Long-range UAVs need targeting data, too, unless they just patrol and hope to run across a target before getting shot down. The suicide UAVs have an older example of possible evolution that makes them not quite the super weapon, no? Although loitering does give the UAVs some advantage in some circumstances for longer-range missions.

The USV and UAV weapons do what anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strike systems of existing missiles and planes directed by an ISR network do--making it dangerous for surface ships to advance too far into their envelope. The A2 part makes it risky to have access to it. The AD part is where entering means sure death, denying the ability to enter.

I'm not dismissing these cheaper, slower loitering kind of unmanned suicide weapons. They add to an array of weapons. But torpedoes and missiles are unmanned suicide weapons, too. The new USVs and UAVs will and should be incorporated into anti-ship arsenals.

Rather than throw panties at USVs, maybe we should ponder that only submarines can operate in a naval sensor-strike complex envelope: 

Russia’s naval fleet has reportedly suffered tremendous losses in Ukraine and now resorts to submarines to continue patrolling the Black Sea.

Robust A2/AD systems may spell the end of the ability of surface ships to operate within range of them--or at least into the AD part. And if they must, they may have to operate under the protection of an air defense "battle star" able to swat down the incoming missiles and drones--and detect and destroy the surface drones and torpedoes, too.

Then you have to determine what the point of advancing into that maelstrom is. 

There should be a point to going toe-to-toe with cheap missiles using expensive surface ships.

UPDATE: Ukraine's USVs. But note:

Sonar can detect them, and autocannon-equipped ship weapons, like Phalanx, can be adapted to accurately target and destroy USVs.  

Counter-measures will be developed.

UPDATE: Speaking of existing missiles:

While swarms of small inexpensive kamikaze drones are a powerful weapon, swarms of cruise missiles are exponentially more powerful.  The Navy is demonstrating cruise missile swarms. In a test this year, 4 LRASMs were launched together, adjusting to each other as they flew toward the target.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

How Large Will Putin's Cluster Of Ef-Ups Grow?

If Russia is joining the China Dream, it just accelerates the Russia Nightmare.

China and Russia move closer. But this isn't quite right:

[Putin had a] sense even before the war in Ukraine that Russia will be forced to turn eastward. The all-out war, in turn, greatly reinforced his search for an alternative to the West in China.

Russia chose this path in 2001 when it began appeasing China, fearful of its growing power and interest in nullifying the losses of the "century of humiliation" that China endured.

I think Russia hoped for a short and glorious war of conquest in Ukraine:

I suspect Russia extended its appeasement of China five years in the belief that a short and glorious war against Ukraine that broke NATO would allow Putin to pivot to face China.

Oops. That initial author said China believed Russia would quickly win. And was worried when it faltered bigly.

But Xi has had time to make lemonade from Putin's lemon. This (back to the initial article) highlights that Russia has fallen from vassal to near-colony status as a source of raw materials for China and as a market for Chinese goods:

The Ukraine war has actually brought numerous benefits to China. Not only has China been able to buy Russian oil and gas at a significant discount, but the Russian market, which had not been open to China, is now fully open.  

How much further down that path will China drive?

This far?

Really, Putin. Bravo. Chess-playing genius, my a**. His search for glory may destroy Russia.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

First a Wall of Lead and Then an Umbrella of Drone Fighters

First we need inexpensive means to defeat cheap suicide drones in the dusty air space just above our combat troops. But then we need to lift the burden of defeating those cheap suicide drones from our troops closing with and destroying the enemy.

I share the French suspicion that drone mania will be dulled: 

While anti-drone systems are lagging and "leave the sky open to things that are cobbled together but which are extremely fragile," countermeasures are being developed[.]

This was inevitable: 

Recent footage from the war shows Russia using its own unmanned aerial vehicles to take down Ukraine's night bomber drones. ...

The videos show Russia successfully destroying the drones using UAVs of its own as interceptors, war watchers have reported. Business Insider was unable to independently verify the purported details for the footage.

Or will be inevitable. Even if Russia is faking their success, the need to fake the capability indicates the need for the capability.

Where are the fighter drones I asked for years ago in Army magazine? That's ultimately what we need so forward troops at the pointy end of the spear can focus on the close battle without having to look up all the time in a modern "German glance." 

The Air Force with their stealth fighters can't possibly sweep those small suicide drones from the "brown skies" as I called the very low air space right over the troops.

And of course then we'll need to escort our own suicide drones through enemy fighter drone screens.

So far, ground-based systems are what we're seeing. Or not seeing in the Army for defeating those small UAVs (sUAVs):

With these shortcomings in both procurement and employment of the Army’s future air defense programs, there is currently a critical capabilities gap that any enemy equipped with even basic sUAS can exploit. The Army must invest in an immediately employable antiaircraft wall-of-lead system for use at the tactical level. 

Until we get the reusable fighter drones, we need that wall-of-lead barrier to cheaply down those suicide drones. Where are our old Vulcans? Tell me they're in desert storage somewhere and weren't sold for scrap.

UPDATE: I did wonder about shotguns to take down FPV drones as they make an attack run, but don't think I mentioned the option:

The company supplies shotguns combined with special drone ammunition, which are already in use with the French and Italian armed forces. Dubbed the ALDA round, short for anti-light drone ammunition, this type of projectile is dedicated to shooting down moving targets such as small drones, weighing less than 25 kilograms, at distances between 80 and 120 meters.

Why not put a shotgun mounted on a small remotely controlled turret on the a rack mounted over the rear deck of a tank? Although for models like the M1 it would need to extend out over the back because there isn't a lot of room. Maybe it's just a simple four-barrel model that has to be manually reloaded.

The rack would avoid blocking engine vents and could be removed for access to the engine. It would be able to cover the rear, sides, and top of the turret. I'll assume the frontal armor can handle whatever payload a small FPV drone can carry.

Just a thought. If I didn't mention shotguns for drone defense, I shouldn't have been shy about it.

UPDATE: Watching a video of Ukrainian drones hitting a convoy of armored vehicles heading to the front, I wondered why the Russians wouldn't set up air defenses to help the movement forward. Don't the Russians have ZSU-23-4 air defense vehicles lying around? As I thought about it, I've never noticed them mentioned. Apparently their naval infantry only has 60 in service.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Sea Power. What Is It?

How is it possible that the Navy is failing in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to carry out a mission as basic as holding open a vital sea corridor? Against a force as weak as the Houthi? What does this say about it keeping lines of supply open to Taiwan against China? Or supplying our Marines scattered around the western Pacific with anti-ship missiles?

We won the Battle of the Atlantic faster than this: 

This week marks the eighth month of the U.S. Navy’s combat operations against Houthi forces in Yemen.

We're clearly losing this campaign: 

Comparative data from Marine Traffic suggests that the Houthi attacks have led to a 79.6 percent drop in drybulk carriers going through the Suez Canal in June 2024 versus June 2023.

That's inconceivable, you say! Well, no:

Despite months of U.S.-led airstrikes against Yemen’s Houthi fighters, the once ragtag rebels have continued to threaten some of the world’s most vital shipping routes, drawing from an arsenal of increasingly advanced weapons to attack vessels in and around the Red Sea. ...

The recent uptick in Houthi activity has underscored the group’s ability to pose a sustained threat, relying in part on a steady flow of Iranian arms and expertise both to withstand U.S. strikes and remain on the attack.

So Iran sustains the Houthi naval offensive? And so our lengthy efforts are just Resolve Theater?

What is our major malfunction? Oh.

But maybe America wants more help from European and regional allies affected by the Iranian Houthi campaign. Maybe we just don't want to do 95% of the job. Maybe we are doing the minimum to incentivize those countries to step up for join in a real fight.

Because if this is a matter of Navy weakness rather than a choice from diplomacy--either bizarre or understandable--how will we possibly get the supplies through an opponent like China? 

An era of great power competition requires far greater resources to project more power and revives the need to protect the logistics effort.

And if so, sorry, Marines. You're effed. 

UPDATE: Confidence: 

The Pentagon said Monday it remains confident that it will be able to respond to ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea after a Navy aircraft carrier strike group departed the region and it was unclear when another carrier group might arrive.

Also confidence:

A possible attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Monday targeted a ship further away from nearly all of the previous assaults they’ve launched in the Gulf of Aden, officials said, potentially part of a widening escalation by the group.

We're reducing our capabilities and our enemy is increasing their capabilities.

At this rate we'll soon be reassuring New Yorkers that we will be able to respond to Houthi attacks on shipping off the Atlantic coast.

UPDATE: More nuanced minds than mine need to explain this strategery:

On the one hand, the Biden administration refuses to get serious about the Houthi pirates disrupting Red Sea global shipping with missiles and direct attacks. On the other hand, Biden is helping Iran keep the Houthi well-funded and well-supplied with its lame oil sanctions.

Helping friends and hurting enemies should be Foreign Policy 101, no?  As I wrote some time ago:

What is it with the strain of conventional wisdom holders in our foreign policy establishment that holds that the height of diplomatic triumph is brokering a deal that saves our enemies rather than defeats them?

UPDATE: Water levels in Panama and potential dock worker strikes contribute, but we may have a new supply chain problem looming (tip to Instapundit):

As Houthi rebels intensify strikes on vessels headed for the Suez Canal, global shipping prices are soaring, raising fears of product shortages and delays.

Ah, Smart Diplomacy® in action!

UPDATE: We carry out Resolve Theater, but (tip to Instapundit) we know how to defeat the Houthi anti-shipping campaign:

People, empires, and technology may change, but the formula is the same; kill the pirates, destroy their weapons, eliminate their bases, take their money, starve what’s left.

But we aren't doing that. Why? 

Oh, right. Lions led by donkeys.

See also my more recent post on anti-ship USVs and UAVs.

UPDATE: The West, by contrast, can barely pretend to deliver its lines in the Red Sea performance of Resolve Theater:

The Houthis have scored a string of successful hits in recent weeks on commercial vessels — even sinking one of them — and demonstrated their ability to effectively strike targets with drone boats, signaling that they're getting smarter with their attacks.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

The Winter War of 2022 Vows Next Year in Crimea

Did Putin miss his best chance to win the war this year? Will Ukraine wrest the initiative and conduct a big counteroffensive in 2025? But what about taking significant action this year on a smaller scale?

Russia may have lost its opening for a big offensive this year that might have broken Ukraine's army. And Ukraine seems unlikely to do more than blunt and erode Russia's initiative this year. 

Russia seems to be shifting offensive effort from the Kharkiv front back to the Donbas, including the Avdiivka salient:

[Russian forces] may soon intensify attacks in this area if the Russian command identifies the coming weeks as an advantageous time to push in these areas before Ukrainian forces re-allocate reserves back to Donetsk Oblast.

While eyes shift to 2025 for better times for Ukraine's offensive options, I would like to see Ukraine this year at least execute a significant counter-attack against Russia's attacks to improve their defensive situation and gain a ground propaganda victory. The front northwest of Avdiivka seems as good a spot as any.

The Russians keep pushing there:

“The area has seen heavy fighting throughout 2024 and Russia has been gradually advancing since capturing Avdiivka in February 2024,” the MoD wrote in its daily social media update.

“Russian forces have likely taken control of the village of Novooleksandrivka, located approximately 20km north of Avdiivka, Donetsk oblast.

“By taking control of Novooleksandrivka, Russia moves closer to threatening the T0504 road, one of the main supply routes for Ukrainian forces further east.”

But Russia's salient offers an opportunity to pinch it off and gain a significant battlefield victory. Please tell me Ukraine has some brigades in reserve that it could put into a big but limited counter-attack to cut off the Russian spearheads and inflict losses on the Russians. The result would be to push the Russians back from that supply route and shorten Ukraine's lines.

For the long run, Ukraine seems to be shaping the battlefield to prepare for seizing the initiative by striking Russia's air defense system in Crimea:

The strikes were part of a meticulously planned and systematic campaign designed to break apart Russia’s air defence network and render Crimea untenable as a staging ground for Moscow’s forces.

Even if the Russian systems are as good as Russia claims, the crews may not be able to exploit their capabilities. Either way, Ukraine is destroying Russian air defense systems. As I observed a few decades ago:

The critical advantages provided by highly trained soldiers with good morale are not easily quantifiable in peacetime. The lack of quality becomes quantifiable, indirectly, when one counts the burned-out armored vehicles of an army whose troops did not know how to use their equipment and who lacked the will to fight on in adversity.

Or burned out air defense systems, in this case.

And I'd really like to avoid telegraphing the site of the counteroffensive if at all possible, unlike the 2023 summer Big Push that wasn't. 

Although I know where I'd like to see it. It would take a lot of preparations to carry this out. Is that happening? And if not there, where would Ukraine strike back?

On that issue, what about all that land emerging and drying out in the former Kakhovka Reservoir after Russia destroyed the dam that formed it? A new forest has emerged rapidly:

The forest’s growth rate is phenomenal. It’s hard to imagine that just a year ago, this place was bare ground, and now, in May, there are trees almost five meters tall.

Is the ground solid enough for vehicles? Could roads be pushed through there to open up a new avenue for Ukraine to launch a counter-offensive? 

If Ukraine is to inflict a defeat on Russia to liberate territory and push Russia to agree to withdraw, Ukraine has to attack somewhere. Going into the teeth of prepared Russian defenses didn't work in 2023. If the Russian army was fragile, Ukraine didn't have the power to push it over the edge with Russian minefields, fortifications, massive fire support, and enough reserves to counter-attack Ukrainian advances.

To me, somewhere in the most western portion of the relatively quiet western part of the front seems most promising. If Ukraine can build up the capabilities to go big there. Until then, Ukraine could go small at the Avdiivka salient to see how well their forces can fight in a bigger counter-attack.

UPDATE (Tuesday): Western aid is beginning to flow but it isn't fully reaching the front yet:

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated that Western military assistance is arriving in Ukraine, but that it will likely not arrive at a scale that will significantly impact the frontline situation until at least mid to late July 2024.

I thought that Ukraine could open up its ammo stocks in anticipation of Western ammunition arriving. Apparently not.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Gas! Gas! Gas! 

Russia has used lethal poison gas against Ukraine for the entire 2022 war, sometimes including the Novichok nerve gas.

It's been sporadic since Mariupol but constant since April at over 100 attacks per month, using small drones to deliver it. I'd heard of tear gas use. But not poison gas. But the post says our State Department admitted Russia is using poison gas. How have I possibly missed that in my krill flow of news? That should be a big deal.

Effing Russian bastards. Putin needs to hang from the neck until dead.

UPDATE (Thursday): I don't disagree with this:

[They] really cannot do major operations along the Dnipro River from Kherson up to the Kakhovka Reservoir. There was, in the best of times only three bridges across this river, and I gather that number is three less now. This creates supply issues and with all the drones, missiles and air support, hard to see how this is corrected. No one has yet to do any major military operations across the Kakhovka Reservoir.

But I just don't like asserting that the Ardennes is impassable Dnipro is uncrossable, assuming that no amount of preparations can overcome the obstacle. 

But of course, a lot needs to be done to overcome the real handicaps for conducting a major operation on that part of the front.

Apart from the river problem, Russia has more problems supplying forces there and Ukraine has a better chance of at least nullifying air power with its aerial Crimea campaign to wreck Russian military assets there.

Where else could Ukraine potentially drive the Russians back, absent a general collapse of Russian troop morale on some section of the front?

UPDATE (Saturday): So far Ukraine is concentrating more on strategic bombing:

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck an oil depot in Russia on June 28 and reportedly struck a microelectronics plant and a military unit on the night of June 27 to 28. 

Which is helpful. Eventually. And then perhaps not so much when Russia moves vital targets east of the Urals.

Eventually Ukraine has to win on the battlefield to keep its Western supporters interested in supplying Ukraine, as I recognized a year into the war.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Weekend Data Dump

I had a nice Father's Day that reminded me I'm a lucky dad to have such a great son and great daughter. My degree of difficulty was low.

Fight the way you train: North Korea attacks South Korea with balloons carrying "small plastic items, cigarette butts, scraps of cloth, and wastepaper"; South Korea attacks North Korea with balloons carrying "leaflets, food, medicine, dollar bills and USB sticks loaded with K-pop music videos and TV shows."

A riddle, wrapped in corruption, inside an invasion: "Many Russian economists and bankers believe another economic collapse, similar to what destroyed the Soviet Union, is possible unless the increased defense spending is restrained along with the growing corruption."

But do they work? "The Chinese nuclear arsenal is expanding and quickly, according to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published this week." Earlier reports of water instead of fuel in missiles and silo hatches that didn't open call this into question.    

Define "ships" please: "The Russian Navy will receive about 50 ships of various classes this year, compared to 32 last year, according to the deputy minister of industry and trade." Most are small warships or support vessels--if 50 are delivered in working order.

Good: "Romania’s second Patriot air defense system is now ready for combat following its successful intercept of a target simulating a cruise missile during a live-fire exercise on the banks of the Black Sea."

The move to Guam will begin in December: "The plan to move 4,000 of the approximately 19,000 Marines currently in Okinawa, agreed upon in 2012, is set to be completed by around 2028, according the Congressional Research Service and other sources." Tell me we could move faster during a war.

Huh: "The Pentagon on Friday stood by its decision to conduct a clandestine disinformation campaign in the Philippines in 2020 that aimed to sow doubt about China's COVID-19 vaccine during the height of the global pandemic -- a campaign that was first revealed in a bombshell report by Reuters."

Tanks don't seem obsolete: "Drawing lessons from the ongoing war in Ukraine, several Eastern European allies are aiming to buy new tanks after years of neglect in this capability area." But there are a lot more ways they can die. So they should probably be much cheaper.

Good: "NATO defense ministers on Friday approved a plan to provide reliable long-term security aid and military training for Ukraine after delays in Western deliveries of funds, arms and ammunition helped invading Russian forces to seize the initiative on the battlefield."

I take the term as meaning "active right now": "The National Defense Strategy (NDS) calls Russia an 'acute threat[.]' This language presents Russia as a major threat but suggests it will soon go away, perhaps when President Vladimir Putin, the architect of the aggression, no longer leads the country." But yeah.

During the Cold War, all of our carriers had Soviet ships following them with this exact mission their job before getting sunk: "Russian military expert Igor Korotchenko recently suggested on state-owned TV that the Kremlin plans to attack U.S. ships with nuclear weapons." Otherwise this is flinging nuclear poo.

The Army apparently resolved issues with upgunning the Stryker with a 30mm auto-cannon and has resumed production. 

Sure: "Think China can already take Taiwan easily? Think again." I assume nothing but that China can invade. I don't know if enough Chinese ships survive in the Strait, if the Taiwanese fight, if China will endure high casualties, or if America intervenes. And I don't know how you define a Chinese victory.

We're long past the point of "trust but verify": "Airliners manufactured by Boeing and Airbus have components made from titanium that was sold with fake documentation." Fake titanium? We clearly can't trust Chinese manufacturers. Fentanyl isn't the only way they try to kill us. Tip to Instapundit.

"Playful"? This isn't a game! "US aircraft carrier captain playfully counters Houthi's false online claims of hitting his ship[.]" We have rules of social media engagement? When the Houthi issue threats and claims, kill them. That's what they want to do to the carrier. Don't pretend carriers can't sink. The stakes are high.

China continues to aggressively interfere with supply missions to the grounded Sierra Madre by the Philippines in the South China Sea. You'll recall that flashpoint.

Well, "colony" goes too far: "It’s often said that Putin has effectively transformed his country into a vassal of China. That’s true, but Russia’s relationship with its much more powerful neighbor to the south is more accurately termed colonial." Russia does have nukes. Some must work, right? Still, Russia faces danger.

Welp, more panty-flinging over Ukraine's suicide USVs: "'Anyone who thinks this isn’t a game changer for the future of war just has their wishful blinders on,' P.W. Singer of the New America think tank told me." One, ISR isn't cheap. And USVs aren't better than traditional anti-ship missiles and torpedoes.

Land-based air power should be enough for the Mediterranean: "Naval Air Station Sigonella, Italy, received on Mar. 30, 2024, its first MQ-4C Triton Unmanned Aerial System, ... the two aircraft, ... have been flying regular missions over the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and off the coasts of Libya."

Desperately seeking inexpensive air defense weapons to defeat anti-ship drones. 

Using unmanned ground vehicles is "very manpower-intensive."

A surprise? In the Cold War they were good so I assumed that: "American guided missiles and bombs had some unexpected problems with accuracy in Ukraine because of innovative Russian electronic jamming. ... This alerted the Americans to problems they didn’t know they had with their guided weapons."

Suppression of enemy air defenses.

Reviving the ancient tanks.

Preaching to the TDR choir on the threat of the EU to America-led NATO: "The EU could be about to cripple Nato[.]" I've worried more about duplicating NATO military structures than defense industry. But I still worry about that form of "strategic autonomy" the EU wants.

A defense of Marine changes: "The Marine Corps is on the right track with FD. It is rapidly evolving its ability to operate within the range of enemy weapons and to sustain its capability to engage enemy forces at close and extended ranges." Call me skeptical. But why gut all the Marines for changes on one front?

Reject the notion we've provoked Russian and Chinese hostility and aggression: "In truth, the growth in their hostility has more to do with our excessive tolerance of their proliferating infractions against civilized norms than our interference with their rightful claims." We can't hide from threats at home.

South Korea would like nuclear-powered attack submarines. Makes sense.

I will not listen to that liar's thoughts on a foreign policy based on the "world as it is."

Interesting that Vietnam is getting away with eroding China's territorial claims in the South China Sea even as China goes hammer and tong at the Philippines with its coast guard and naval militia. Mind you, America would not recognize territory claims based on reclaimed land features by Vietnam or China.

Edging toward war: "Chinese forces seized two Philippine rubber boats that were delivering food and other supplies to a military outpost in a disputed South China Sea shoal in a tense confrontation in which some Filipino navy personnel were injured, Philippine security officials said Tuesday."

It's possible Japan might go to war with China over Taiwan even if America doesn't jump in. Although if America intervenes Japan will certainly help.

Renewed military aid again reaching Ukraine's troops is boosting troop morale. Will that also boost enlistment? 

Warnings are only clear after an actual attack: "Israeli military intelligence sounded clear warnings regarding a pending attack more than two weeks before Hamas launched its attack from the Gaza Strip on October 7 last year[.]" I call BS. Before attacks, warnings are murky. Ask us about Pearl Harbor and 9/11.

Sure: "The National Guard’s ongoing security mission on the southern U.S. border provides 'no military training value' to the troops stationed there[.]"  But it has national security value. And if civilian agencies don't do their border security mission, somebody must.

The cheap drones will get more expensive in this EW and ECM battle: "As drones play an increasingly prominent role in the war, both sides are pitched in a constantly evolving battle to down enemy craft and keep their own in the sky." 

To be fair, he was a whipped moron: "A court in Russia’s far eastern city of Vladivostok on Wednesday sentenced an American soldier arrested earlier this year to three years and nine months in prison on charges of stealing and threats of murder, Russian news reports said." But that's not a crime.

Oh FFS: M-SHORAD can't fire its Hellfire missiles because the "Hellfire was not designed to be driven around in a ground vehicle[.]" 

Good: "India and the United States on Monday pledged to boost defense and technology cooperation and remove long-standing barriers to bilateral strategic trade, following a meeting between the national security advisers of both countries."

American special forces ... from the sea.

Ukraine likes their Bradly Fighting Vehicles.

Basically a missile technology-for-ammunition deal: "The deal could expand transfers of military technology to Pyongyang in exchange for supplies of munitions that Moscow’s military badly needs for its war in Ukraine." Maybe Ukraine would like some Western missile technology, eh?

The next war? "Israel warned Hezbollah on Tuesday of the prospect of 'all-out war' after the Lebanese militant group published a 9-minute video, purportedly taken by a drone, showing Israeli military and civilian locations in several Israeli cities." "All-out" would mean rapidly seizing Baalbek.

While we play games, Iran and their Houthi proxy wage war: "A bulk carrier sank days after an attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels believed to have killed one mariner on board, authorities said early Wednesday, the second ship sunk in the rebels' campaign."

Is Canada our "least helpful ally"? Well, there military is hollow. And I have zero respect for their prime minister. But they have my lingering respect for fighting and dying alongside our troops in Afghanistan. They were no mere war spectators. But lately they've sucked.

No Russians allowed: "Some 9,000 troops from 20 NATO countries have been participating this month in military exercises in the Baltic Sea region, which has become strategically sensitive following Russia's invasion of Ukraine."

China isn't subtle: "A Chinese amphibious warship is operating near a disputed South China Sea feature that has been the site of a standoff between Chinese and Philippine Coast Guards, USNI News has learned."

Are we in a post-heroic era when the willingness to sacrifice young men to fight in wars will prevent wars? Nice theory, but Russia--which supposedly falls into that category (and I once thought so)--has seemingly lost more than 100,000 dead soldiers so far with no end in sight.

Oh, urgent action is being taken there: "Urgent action must be taken in the Red Sea to stop attacks on merchant shipping by Yemen's Houthis, leading industry groups said on Wednesday, after the sinking of a second ship." But by Iran and the Houthi--not the West.

As Russia embraces North Korea, is Russia angling to buy North Korean "volunteers" to fight Ukraine? North Korea would get money, food, and technology--plus kill off potentially rebellious young men in a far off war.

I've noted that China's military has problems. It does. But I don't assume it means everything is crap. Russia is inflicting a lot of damage with crap. And China's problems undermine the fierce urgency of now claims that America must abandon Europe to win in Asia.

Huh: "Russia has moved the vast majority of its ground forces previously stationed near Finland to the war in Ukraine[.]" Contrary to Russian hyper-ventilating about the NATO threat, Russia clearly doesn't fear a NATO invasion. To be fair, Russia moans and wails to conceal their appeasement of China.

Russia abuses its Ukrainian prisoners of war. This is concentration camp level of criminal. It should encourage Ukrainian soldiers not to surrender. Ukraine should continue to treat Russian prisoners well--and advertise it--because it is the right thing to do and to encourage Russian troops to surrender.

Restoring the two-war standard. One of my first publications criticized the elimination of the two-war standard in favor of a "nearly simultaneous" two smaller wars standard.

Weapons, logistics, and intelligence/early warning: "One rarely mentioned aspect of the Ukraine War is the frequent involvement of civilians and civilian groups in supporting the war effort." I've noted this feature for a long time.

Not part of Russia: "When the Russians invaded in 2022, many officers and soldiers were surprised that Ukrainians were no longer culturally related to Russia but had become more like western Europeans."

Starlink at war.

Doha doomed Afghanistan because it "empowered and legitimised the Taliban" and "the US seemed to be treating Afghanistan as if it was not a sovereign nation[.]" Yeah. I rejected peace with the Taliban and worried about undermining the government. But the buck stopped at Biden, who made it worse.

No! Way! "A major expansion underway inside Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear facility could soon triple the site’s production of enriched uranium and give Tehran new options for quickly assembling a nuclear arsenal[.]" This may be more urgently worrisome.

The war on terror continues: "“On June 16, US Central Command conducted an airstrike in Syria, killing Usamah Jamal Muhammad Ibrahim al-Janabi, a senior ISIS official and facilitator,” the post from US Central Command said."

More BS advocating a dormant NATO--new and improved with a "grand bargain" with Russia! That's no ordinary deal! it's grand! What is wrong with some conservatives? Just accept the W now that Democrats want to stop Russia.

China's demographics is a long-term problem around mid-century. Probably correct. Advanced Western countries aren't collapsing despite similar long-term problems. But China isn't an advanced country.

Macron may cause the collapse of the European Union? Be still my heart. Oh the irony.

So we have some stranded astronauts in orbit. 

What is China's major malfunction? "Footage released by the Philippine military on Thursday showed Chinese coast guard officers brandishing an axe and other bladed or pointed tools at the Filipino soldiers and slashing their rubber boat, in what Manila called 'a brazen act of aggression.'"

Strategery: "Major weapons exporter South Korea will 'reconsider' a longstanding policy that bars it from supplying arms directly to Ukraine, a presidential official said Thursday, after North Korea and Russia signed a defense deal." One more reason for Russians to string Putin up on a lamp post.

The war on Islamist terror is far from over: "A Muslim mob in northwestern Pakistan on Thursday broke into a police station, snatched a man who was held there and then lynched him over allegations that he had desecrated Islam's holy book, the Quran." That kind of hate generates terrorists.

From the "Well, Duh" files we have this: "US officials have serious concerns that in the event of a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group could overwhelm Israel’s air defenses in the north — including the much-vaunted Iron Dome air defense system[.]" Go full-blown.

Effectively sunk for five years: "The midlife overhaul and refueling for aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis (CVN-74) will now take about five and a half years to complete – an extension of almost 14 months[.]" Thank God it doesn't have battle damage!

Huh: "China decided to forego a beach landing and attempt an air assault on the island’s port and airfield facilities, the seizure of which would allow for rapid arrival of follow-on troops and logistical supplies to facilitate a successful occupation." That's been my view. His scenario sounds like my 2005 scenario. 

Hmmm: "A major expansion underway inside Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear facility could soon triple the site’s production of enriched uranium and give Tehran new options for quickly assembling a nuclear arsenal if it chooses to[.]" Iran would want nuclear missiles prior to getting that capability, no?

Is this based on a fleeting window before counter-measures are developed: "Taiwan won approval from main benefactor the U.S. to buy hundreds of loitering munitions, as part of a 'porcupine strategy' to use such attritable weapons to help defend the country from a potential Chinese military invasion." Meh.

It's a victory to have a nuclear crisis over one weapon: "A unique team of Army soldiers who train to defuse nuclear emergencies has been training alongside the elite combat units that might one day have to take them into — and back out of — a doomsday-like scenario."

I think the social media problems for resuming a military draft are over-stated.

Here we go: "The Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee issued a statement suggesting a consensus among Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to resume attacks targeting US forces. " Will we please fight--and win--Phase IX of the Iraq War?

Another substitute for victory. Tip to Instapundit.

AI fighter pilots: "The AI is making "dramatic" progress as it learns from flight and mission data, an Air Force officer said." The Air Force must pursue this because others will. But human pilot training has been an advantage. Will our programmers provide the same edge over enemy programmers?

Oh? "According to the measures that matter, Hamas is stronger today than it was on October 7." Some people really contort themselves to assert fighting back against monsters makes them stronger. We killed a lot of Germans and wrecked a lot of Germany. That did not make Nazism stronger. Kill jihadis.

Efforts to help Ukrainian air defense are getting serious: "NATO member Romania’s top defense body said Thursday that the country will donate a Patriot missile system to neighboring Ukraine[.]" 

Is China posturing to satisfy Russia? "Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week reiterated the U.S. is committed to backing the Philippines as the Pacific nation continues to clash with Chinese boats in the South China Sea, spurring fears that tensions will escalate into a wider conflict." The clash in the conflict.

American special forces are contracting in size and shifting back to pre-9/11 jobs of training and working with allied military forces to fight common enemies. Direct action is limited to SEAL Team 6 and Delta Force, as many targets can now be identified by special forces recon and killed with drone strikes.

A sign of war worries or a tactic to undermine drafting men? I suppose there's the healing power of "and." Tip to Instapundit.

Is this posturing by both sides or are we sliding toward a war between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon? We'll see if Israel is serious if it goes to war.

But what if China's large manufacturing advantage means they send tens of thousands of such drones to clear the way? What about the original unmanned naval drones? The stationary and cheap sea mine seeded in the tens of thousands? Not flashy, I know. But it's an idea so crazy it might just work!

Huh: "Morosovsk Airfield in Russia, about 150 miles from the front lines, was hit by a Ukrainian attack. It’s claimed that the operation was carried out via a mass drone attack." I'd rather send scores of suicide drones to attack Russian airfields than use F-16s. 

Well, yes: " U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink on Saturday said the situation in the South China Sea is deeply concerning, and said China's recent actions in the disputed waterway were 'deeply destabilising'." I'm actually pleased when a diplomat sees the obvious.

Good: "India and Bangladesh on Saturday moved to bolster their defense relationship and signed agreements for expanding cooperation in maritime security, ocean economy, space, and telecommunication sectors[.]" don't cede the field to China.

SpaceX turns profitable.

Losses: Russia has lost 562 military aircraft, with 415 of them destroyed and 147 captured on the ground by Ukrainian troops early in the war. In addition Russia has lost over 300 helicopters[.]" Russian aircraft rarely fly over Ukrainian territory now.

The Pentagon was sued for documents related to "the U.S. Military Academy’s decision to delete its famous motto 'Duty, Honor, Country' from its mission statement." To be fair, when you believe there are many substitutes for victory, who needs that around? Tip to Instapundit.

I think the author is way too pessimistic thinking "World War III" is inevitable. It would be assuming too much to say the Long Peace since 1945 means a world war is impossible. But it's a leap to argue that the long gap in war between nuclear powers is about to end. And if it ends, don't assume it involves the West.

Of course they do: "Hezbollah is storing huge quantities of Iranian weapons, missiles, and explosives in Beirut’s main civilian airport, according to airport whistleblowers." It's a war crime to use human shields.

If true, this is a war crime: "The Israel Defense Forces strapped a wounded Palestinian man to a jeep during a raid." But it was one raid. The entire war strategy of Hamas is using Gazans as human shields. I wonder who will be condemned by the UN Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories?