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Thursday, June 27, 2024

How Large Will Putin's Cluster Of Ef-Ups Grow?

If Russia is joining the China Dream, it just accelerates the Russia Nightmare.

China and Russia move closer. But this isn't quite right:

[Putin had a] sense even before the war in Ukraine that Russia will be forced to turn eastward. The all-out war, in turn, greatly reinforced his search for an alternative to the West in China.

Russia chose this path in 2001 when it began appeasing China, fearful of its growing power and interest in nullifying the losses of the "century of humiliation" that China endured.

I think Russia hoped for a short and glorious war of conquest in Ukraine:

I suspect Russia extended its appeasement of China five years in the belief that a short and glorious war against Ukraine that broke NATO would allow Putin to pivot to face China.

Oops. That initial author said China believed Russia would quickly win. And was worried when it faltered bigly.

But Xi has had time to make lemonade from Putin's lemon. This (back to the initial article) highlights that Russia has fallen from vassal to near-colony status as a source of raw materials for China and as a market for Chinese goods:

The Ukraine war has actually brought numerous benefits to China. Not only has China been able to buy Russian oil and gas at a significant discount, but the Russian market, which had not been open to China, is now fully open.  

How much further down that path will China drive?

This far?

Really, Putin. Bravo. Chess-playing genius, my a**. His search for glory may destroy Russia.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.