Guys, find a woman who looks at you the way analysts look at suicide unmanned surface vessels (USVs) and suicide unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
USVs and UAVs are changing the character of naval warfare? Hmmm. Sure, they're new. But citing the Black Sea campaign to emphasize the impact of USVs is misleading. The USVs need NATO expensive ISR and targeting networks. The USVs are really just slow surface torpedoes.
Wouldn't an ASuROC work better?
Long-range UAVs need targeting data, too, unless they just patrol and hope to run across a target before getting shot down. The suicide UAVs have an older example of possible evolution that makes them not quite the super weapon, no? Although loitering does give the UAVs some advantage in some circumstances for longer-range missions.
The USV and UAV weapons do what anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strike systems of existing missiles and planes directed by an ISR network do--making it dangerous for surface ships to advance too far into their envelope. The A2 part makes it risky to have access to it. The AD part is where entering means sure death, denying the ability to enter.
I'm not dismissing these cheaper, slower loitering kind of unmanned suicide weapons. They add to an array of weapons. But torpedoes and missiles are unmanned suicide weapons, too. The new USVs and UAVs will and should be incorporated into anti-ship arsenals.
Rather than throw panties at USVs, maybe we should ponder that only submarines can operate in a naval sensor-strike complex envelope:
Russia’s naval fleet has reportedly suffered tremendous losses in Ukraine and now resorts to submarines to continue patrolling the Black Sea.
Robust A2/AD systems may spell the end of the ability of surface ships to operate within range of them--or at least into the AD part. And if they must, they may have to operate under the protection of an air defense "battle star" able to swat down the incoming missiles and drones--and detect and destroy the surface drones and torpedoes, too.
Then you have to determine what the point of advancing into that maelstrom is.
There should be a point to going toe-to-toe with cheap missiles using expensive surface ships.
UPDATE: Ukraine's USVs. But note:
Sonar can detect them, and autocannon-equipped ship weapons, like Phalanx, can be adapted to accurately target and destroy USVs.
Counter-measures will be developed.
UPDATE: Speaking of existing missiles:
While swarms of small inexpensive kamikaze drones are a powerful weapon, swarms of cruise missiles are exponentially more powerful. The Navy is demonstrating cruise missile swarms. In a test this year, 4 LRASMs were launched together, adjusting to each other as they flew toward the target.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.