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Sunday, June 30, 2024

Weekend Data Dump

Well that was stupid: "The Pentagon did not keep adequate track of funds awarded to Chinese research labs or other countries that could have been used to enhance pathogens of pandemic potential[.]" But let's not gloss over the greater stupidity of paying China to work on potentially deadly pathogens.

The aggressor will have to pay a bit, anyway: "EU approves up to €1.4B military aid to Ukraine from Russian frozen assets[.]"

Maybe Plan B could be defeating Russia in Ukraine: "The top U.S. general is making a rare trip to Africa to discuss ways to preserve some of the U.S. presence in West Africa after Niger decided to kick out the U.S. military in favour of partnering with Russia in a major setback for Washington."

South China Sea: "The president of the Philippines said Sunday his country would not yield to 'any foreign power' after Chinese forces injured Filipino navy personnel and damaged at least two military boats with machetes, axes and hammers ... but added the Philippines would never instigate a war."

Oh? "France would support the Lebanese Armed Forces should Beirut decide to deploy them on a security mission to the southern border with Israel, a move that could prompt Paris to renew a push for international aid to the government forces, according to a French official." UNIFAIL sure isn't doing that.

No silver bullet, but another bullet: "American army and marines are planning to issue more [small Switchblade suicide drones] to their own troops for use as a standard weapon, like existing rocket launchers and portable anti-tank weapons." And thousands more will be sent to Ukraine.

Collateral damage: "EW (Electronic Warfare) in Ukraine, the Middle East and northwestern Russia as a result of military operations has caused significant problems for ships, aircraft and cross country vehicles in roadless areas that depend on satellite navigation systems to get where they need to go."

Maybe we could blockade China long enough to win. But "Chinese manufacturers are deeply embedded in U.S. defense systems, providing critical technology and raw materials used in everything from air-to-air missiles to fighter jets." So, there's that.

Machine guns in ball turrets? "The US Air Force is asking industry for help for potentially carrying defensive systems aboard mobility aircraft that can fend off small drones."

Sure, if China ordered Russia to help, Russia would salute and comply: "If China were to invade Taiwan, it is likely that Russia would provide Beijing with military, economic, or political assistance." Would China suggest it needed a mere vassal's help to absorb Taiwan? And maybe Xi just isn't that into Putin.

If we help the forces of good: "The current wave of authoritarian rule will not deny Georgians their European and democratic futures. Nor will it deter the West from supporting these ambitions." 

Yeah, and destroying Nazism didn't attack the embodiment of the German people: "Hamas is not and never has been a national-independence movement. It is above all an intransigent, religious movement set on the destruction of Israel." Sorry to go Godwin, but when the Jew-killing fits ... 

Are closer Russia-North Korea ties a monkey in the wrench of Russia-China relations? 

LOL! Mundane sea mines have to be respected now that they are delivered by the belle of the ball: "Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels are laying undersea mines that have already damaged several Russian warships in the Black Sea[.]"

I can't celebrate this: "The death toll in the attack by Islamic militants in Russia's southern region of Dagestan has risen to 21 after a wounded police officer has died in a hospital, officials said Tuesday." But Putin should realize America's war on terror wasn't a war of choice. Islamism--not Ukraine--is the enemy.

Death from above: "Four U.S. Marine F-35B Lighting II dropped seven GBU-32 500-pound guided bombs on targets floating off the coast of Western Luzon in the South China Sea in a first-of-its-kind bilateral exercise last week." Bilateral with the Philippines.

So long and thanks for all the fish: "The U.S. will have fully cleared out of one air base in Niger as it continues to move personnel and equipment from the African country ahead of a September deadline to complete its withdrawal[.]"

More baskets for our eggs: "Marines began flying again from Peleliu, this time with an eye towards its value in the modern Pacific theater."

What's up in Turkey? Also, PKK is apparently shooting down Turkish drones with Iranian-made suicide drones. You know where I stand on that--fighter drones!

Hamas. A lot of Westerners claim Israel fell into a Hamas "trap" by attacking Hamas which uses human shields to make Israel look bad. I think that's silly. But I've heard that on October 7th Hamas actually wanted to destroy Israel and take over the West Bank--not set a trap. Makes more sense. I'll watch for that.

Fire at will: "Western supplies of artillery shells, slowed by months of political wrangling in Washington before finally being released, have started to reach Ukrainian units on the front lines, relieving pressure on forces outnumbered by the Russians."

China makes another friend: "Chinese and Japanese coast guard vessels engaged in a stand off in around a group of disputed islands in the East China Sea on Monday, according to statements from both countries." Brilliant!

Halt! or we'll yell "halt!" again! "The Philippine government has adopted a cautious approach to aggressive Chinese coast guard actions in the South China Sea, and the Biden administration has filed formal diplomatic protests with Beijing, a senior State Department official said on Monday."

We don't have enough airlift, so naturally "Boeing has unveiled the innovative REVOLVER launcher system. It is expected to become a game-changer that can transform the C-17 Globemaster III into a formidable hypersonic missile carrier." I eagerly await the B-2 cargo pallet sling system.

Turkey throws fellow Moslem Uighurs under the bus to improve relations with China. I don't want to hear another damn word about Gazans from the Turks.

So Russians accept the bloody yoke forever? "The outlook remains bleak for ordinary Russian people. But Putin doesn’t care. As long as he gets to continue his Ukrainian campaign, it doesn’t matter. In Russia, nothing matters." Or do cracks shatter suddenly? Wagner's lesson may be when you strike a czar, kill him.

Look here and here--but don't you dare look there: "Lebanese government officials took more than 100 foreign diplomats and journalists on a tour Monday of the country’s only international airport in a bid to refute a British newspaper report alleging that the facility was being used to store Hezbollah weapons."

Huh: "Two B-52 bombers from Barksdale Air Force Base flew a mission in the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility last week, a relatively rare trip below the equator."

I wrongly assumed they were already there to help with maintenance and repair: "The Biden administration is moving toward lifting a de facto ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine[.]" Or I forgot they haven't been there.

Wait. What? "Senior U.N. officials have warned Israel that they will suspend the world body’s aid operations across Gaza unless Israel acts urgently to better protect humanitarian workers[.]" One would assume this means aid workers need Israeli protection from Hamas. But Israel gets the warning?

Russia's war economy

How will Mexico's political changes affect U.S.-Mexico relations?

Nothing to see. Move along: "[DHS] has identified over 400 immigrants who have come to the U.S. from Central Asia and elsewhere as 'subjects of concern' because they were brought by an ISIS-affiliated human smuggling network[.]" We caught 150. Golden Age 2.0, anybody? Gosh! How did hopenchange fail!

More AMPVs, the M113 successor. 

Nice. I guess: "The U.S. Army said it fired its newly fielded Precision Strike Missile from the Pacific island of Palau and engaged a moving target at sea[.]" But isn't that what the Marines are doing? What about the Army's core competency in INDOPACOM, as I asked in this Military Review article.

Ugh: "The Air Force has fired the head of its program to build the next intercontinental ballistic missile—whose projected costs have ballooned to $131 billion." Still, firing the officer is better than pretending nothing is wrong. We should probably just ask SpaceX to design it.

From the "Well, Duh" files: "North Korean soldiers sent to aid Russia in Ukraine would be 'cannon fodder,' the Pentagon said." For Kim Jong-Un, that's a feature and not a bug. He'd get money, food, and technology--plus kill off potentially rebellious young men in a far off war rather than risk the alternative.

Sure, we should not send aid to the Taliban: "We are $35 trillion in debt and do not need to be funding our enemies one bit." Let Pakistan and its new Chinese buddies pay for humanitarian aid. But where was the recognition that the Taliban are our enemy back in the summer of 2021 when we skedaddled?

Will AI weapons eclipse nuclear weapons? Hard to say. Precision weapons have already replaced the smallest tactical nukes in Western militaries. So maybe they could replace more--if not all--nukes. But it's possible I don't have a good enough imagination to anticipate the kind of destruction AI will inflict.

After I noted that unusual B-52 flight in SOUTHCOM, I see this: "An attempted military coup took place in Bolivia on Wednesday as the South American country’s president urged its citizens to mobilize." Related?

Is America losing a race for better munitions? "As the global strategic environment worsens, the race to innovate in the domain of energetic materials —crucial components of modern weaponry — is only going to become more intense."

Did we give this to Ukraine to test it out? "The 2-CT Hawkeye consists of a 105 mm Howitzer mounted on a Humvee and is described by its producer, Indiana-based AM General, as the lightest, most maneuverable self-propelled Howitzer in the world." A "soft recoil" system works on light vehicles.

Our former military pilots really shouldn't train Chinese pilots. Really shouldn't. Now if those former Western military pilots want to fly ... .

Yeah: "Russia has been making a lot of headlines but not much else. The economy is a mess, it has fewer allies and the future looks dim." Russia hates being ignored more than it wants to be prosperous. That's a danger to and an opportunity for Ukraine.

Our security is down and our ability to pay to restore it is lower. And don't think things can't get worse economically.

Huh: "Ukraine is going to sign a security pact with the European Union, the country's president Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Thursday." Ukraine should understand that the EU doesn't give a damn about Ukraine's security. What it wants is the authority to have a security pact with Ukraine.

Listen you evil morons, relations are bad because you invaded a country: "The Kremlin said on Thursday that Russia is considering a possible downgrading of diplomatic relations with the West due to the deeper involvement of the United States and its allies in the Ukraine war[.]" So annoying. And evil. And morons.


So: "Secretary Austin reaffirmed the ironclad U.S. commitment to the Philippines following dangerous actions on June 17 by the People's Republic of China (PRC) against lawful operations by the Philippines to deliver humanitarian supplies to service members stationed at the BRP Sierra Madre."

Okay, I'm hearing that apparently the deal would be for North Korea to send engineering units to work for Russia in occupied Ukrainian territory. North Korea would be paid, of course. But that lacks the second bird with one stone aspect.

Because poachers would never sell poisoned products to anybody: "In an effort to make them useless to poachers, researchers are implanting radioactive isotopes into the horns of rhinos in South Africa." And as a bonus we'll get false alarms at detectors intended to prevent nuclear terrorism! Aren't experts grand?

Stop acting like we want a new 9/11 (tip to Instapundit.)! "A recent report published by [DHS] said that under the Biden administration, U.S. Customs and Border Protection management pressured officers to allow vehicles to cross from Mexico without proper inspection." Mission accomplished

So? "There are presently no internationally accepted criteria for determining whether a nation state cyberattack is a use of force equivalent to an armed attack, which could trigger a military response." If we blow up hackers, we basically define the threshold, no? Although we need to understand it applies to "us."

Reach out and touch someone: "GMLRS ER has had multiple successful flight tests leading up to the production decision. The extended range version can reach 150-plus kilometers compared to the 70-kilometer range capability of GMLRS."

Commissars in a separate but superior chain of command wreck a military: "The U.S. military and Pentagon have turned into a 'vast DEI bureaucracy' under the Biden administration, according to a study released on Tuesday." We're wrecking our military. There is no right to victory. Unless that's the plan. 

Hurting Russian weapons production relies on "identifying key bottlenecks and opportunities for disruption, communicating these opportunities to the private sector, and then synchronising and sequencing enforcement action to maximise the disruptive effect on Russian industry." Make it so. 

CONUS is not a sanctuary for power projection: "The Defense Department’s IT agency is shoring up the military’s infrastructure to better withstand attacks as China looks for ways to disrupt everyday life in the United States during a conflict, Lt. Gen. Robert Skinner said Wednesday." 

Commanders and staff met while the ship was at Manila: "The USS Blue Ridge, the 7th Fleet flagship, steamed into Manila this month for a port call, its first since 2019, the day after Chinese and Philippine sailors clashed at a disputed reef in the South China Sea." And the U.S. ambassador. Is something up?

Are we fighting the war on terror or observing it? "More than five years after the Islamic State group lost its last enclave of territory, U.S. troops remain deployed to Iraq and Syria to prevent ISIS from rising from its ashes." Because we only seem to observe Iran's jihadi proxies.

This will keep Italy's submarine fleet at eight boats: "Italy has signed a €500 million ($535 million) deal to buy its fourth and final U-212 NFS submarine to be built by state-controlled Italian shipyard Fincantieri."

Hmmm: "Starting in 2023 the proportion of casualties inflicted by UAVs in the Ukraine war soared to more than those inflicted by artillery, and in 2024 an outright majority of all casualties have been inflicted by UAVs." I read that drone kills are up because of the shortage of Ukrainian artillery shells. We'll see.

It always frustrated me that post-2015 Democrat outrage was matched by their ignorance--and denial--of Russian/Soviet disinformation going back to the Cold War: "Most of what we now know of Russian Cold War disinformation methods and their success was documented after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991"

Not to drift into politics (tip to Instapundit): "Telling people they didn't see what they saw is not the way to respond to [the debate]." But Ben Rhodes is one to talk, and I absolutely don't want that vile man and his dezinformatsiya aimed at the American public anywhere near our foreign policy again.

Huh: "Temu—the Chinese shopping app that has rapidly grown so popular in the US that even Amazon is reportedly trying to copy it—is "dangerous malware" that's secretly monetizing a broad swath of unauthorized user data[.]" China is a-hole. Tip to The Morning Briefing. 

No! Way! "New evidence indicates that, contrary to claims by top U.S. officials and international media, the Gaza Strip is not on the precipice of a widespread famine that Western experts claimed would endanger millions of innocent Palestinians." 

Taliban jihadis take a victory lap: "International consensus against recognizing the Taliban is fraying at a startling speed." Maybe if we didn't subsidize the Taliban regime with large amounts of money. The time to hold a firm line was in 2001.

Can we alter that? "Russian elites have learned to stop worrying about the conflict. They have concluded that the invasion, even if they do not support it outright, is a tolerable fact of life. As a result, the odds that they might challenge the Kremlin’s decisions—which were always slim—have gone away entirely."

LOL: "The M10 Booker aims to revolutionize how U.S. Army light infantry units fight. It will have the ability to deploy rapidly aboard C-17 cargo jets right alongside the troops it was designed to support." The part about deploying rapidly via C-17s is actually hilariously optimistic.

The ship is carrying F-35Bs. But not MV-22s for troop transport: "The U.S. Navy amphibious assault ship USS Wasp and the Marines aboard are being sent to the eastern Mediterranean to serve as a deterrent and provide the U.S. military with options[.]" But MV-22s or helicopters could be flown to the ship if needed.

China strangles Taiwan: "The authors maintain that if the United States and its allies don’t determine better ways to challenge Beijing’s 'gray-zone campaign,' then they could find Taiwan’s autonomy and the United States’ credibility 'both greatly diminished,' even without war." This might be the way.

Is the Biden initiative to get a Israel-Saudi peace deal just a means to hobble those two countries while strengthening Iran? It's plausible.

EU voting farce: "Its leaders, its policies and its laws are decided not by public consent, but by backroom talks and horsetrading, through processes that are deliberately labyrinthine and opaque, and impossible for the lay citizen to get his or her head around." Kill this beast. With bonus Von der Leyen bashing. 

Modern war: "In Ukraine a Russian offensive in early May featured a rare disruption of the SpaceX Starlink communications service that the Ukrainian forces had become heavily dependent on for radio communications and video feeds from drones, ground forces and aircraft."

Pakistan continues to support jihadis who attack India, but India has far fewer problems than Pakistan, where the host is dying

I'm concerned by USMC changes--especially its breadth. Marines are, too: "This framework, Vision 2035, emphatically repudiates the underlying tenets of Force Design and calls for the restoration of offensive operations and combined arms capabilities to enable global response across the spectrum of conflict."

A lot to gather and sift: "Under the auspices of Northern Raven—US Army Europe and Africa’s multinational open-source intelligence (OSINT) program—thirty analysts representing eleven countries had gathered in Finland to collect OSINT, guided by a collection plan developed six months earlier."

Digging in along the Russian and Belarus borders makes keeping Ukraine free important: "EUROPE is looking to build a giant 1,500 mile defensive line to protect itself from a chilling Vladimir Putin invasion." 

To be fair, Putin claims he's at war with NATO: "Russia’s defense minister ordered officials to prepare a 'response' to U.S. drone flights over the Black Sea, the ministry said Friday, in an apparent warning that Moscow may take forceful action to ward off the American reconnaissance aircraft."

Can Russia afford it? "President Vladimir V. Putin declared on Friday that Russia would produce new intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles and then decide whether to deploy them within range of NATO nations in Europe and American allies in Asia." China is also in Asia. But that's not mentioned.

Russia believes the Sea of Azov is a bastion that protects its surface ships from Ukrainian USVs. This highlights a potential USV and UUV threat to Russia--penetrating its SSBN bastions. Which is a serious problem for Russia.

The only reason to do this is to kill Americans: "Nicaragua’s dictatorship announced last Friday the opening of diplomatic relations with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, governed by the Taliban since 2021." Oh, there may be other reasons. But that's the one. Reagan should have bombed Daniel Ortega.

The West shouldn't try to break up the fissure-prone Russia-China relationship. It's true they are frenemies with benefits. But while we shouldn't try to bribe either one--predators will never be sated--we should throw sand in the gears of their relationship to increase the existing friction. And yes, herd the cats.

NATO shouldn't be trying to ration military power between itself and Ukraine. NATO should be ramping up defense production! If war is imposed on the West, we'll need every bullet and armored vehicle we can produce.

CVE: "China is building a small aircraft carrier that will carry and use droves (UAVS) instead of manned aircraft." If we play our cards right, we update our strike capabilities to replace our small and aging fleet while China is stuck with their large, shiny, new fleet. Network-centric, baby!

Fear of Russia (coming in) and America (going out) prods NATO to boost defense capabilities

Bizarrely, Macron thought it wise to debate his record now: "France faces a stark choice in its upcoming election, with a leading pollster showing the far-right National Rally ahead with 36% of the vote, followed by the leftist New Popular Front coalition at 29%. Macron’s coalition trails at third with 19.5%[.]".

If mobile, protected firepower is vital, you need a tank: "a slew of new tank designs are emerging from European drawing boards. This is partly spurred by the Ukraine war, which has seen the most intense armored warfare in Europe since 1945." Also, the French-German MGCS project may not be trusted.

Russia learned from its invasion of Ukraine that NATO isn't ready for war. But Ukraine's resistance keeps Russia from exploiting that. So Russia resorts to sabotage: "Russia was resorting to a campaign of sabotage as an alternative to a full-on war with NATO, which would be disastrous for Russia."

Why does a “rational discussion” about the Russian threat always take the form of minimizing the threat from the state that has started the first large-scale conventional war in Europe since 1945? But I expect no less from Irresponsible Statecraft.

Uncertainty about the size of the PLA.

Unexpected guest: “A U.S. Coast Guard cutter on routine patrol in the Bering Sea came across several Chinese military ships in international waters but within the U.S. exclusive economic zone, officials said.” 

What? “As President Joe Biden and U.S. officials get down to business with NATO allies in Washington, D.C., this week, one question lurks over the entire proceedings—Is there any head-of-state in Europe who can actually claim a leadership role on the continent?” A pan-European leader is the last thing we need.