China has escalated the dispute with Japan over the Senkaku Islands:
China's government-run Xinhua news agency published a map and coordinates for the newly established "East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone", which covers most of that sea including the disputed islands.
It also released Defence Ministry identification rules for aircraft in the area.
"China's armed forces will adopt defensive emergency measures to respond to aircraft that do not cooperate in the identification or refuse to follow the instructions," Xinhua said.
Japan protested, repeating their claim of ownership and rejecting the unilateral Chinese move.
Drawing a line in the air is extremely dangerous.
China now faces the options of doing nothing while Japan defies that defense zone and looking weak, or escalating to warning shots, dangerous maneuvers next to Japanese aircraft (remember the EP-3 incident?), or even firing on Japanese aircraft.
I think Japan should send in the robots.
But beyond this, China just isn't as strong as they feel they are. I think Japan's navy and air force would defeat the Chinese in a battle over the Senkaku Islands, with our support limited and mainly designed to warn China away from escalation.
Unless China is trying to get Japan to enter negotiations that basically admit that the question of ownership is a matter of dispute in exchange for suspending the zone, this move by China will spark a clash. Whether that escalates to a longer shooting war is the main question.
And would North Korea decide to get some shots in at South Korea while China and Japan square off, confident that America would restrain South Korea in order to avoid further inflaming the regional crisis?
UPDATE: The Japanese use a different adjective, but seem on board my worries:
[Junichi Ihara, who heads the Japanese foreign ministry's Asian and Oceanian affairs bureau] said Japan could "never accept the zone set up by China" as it includes the Tokyo-controlled islands, the statement said.
Ihara also told the Chinese side that such move by Beijing would "escalate" current bilateral tensions over the islands, branding it "very dangerous".
China is setting up so many trip wires around their periphery that one of these days one will explode.
UPDATE: We're not too happy, either. From the Secretary of Defense:
The United States is deeply concerned by the People's Republic of China announcement today that it is establishing an air defense identification zone in the East China Sea. We view this development as a destabilizing attempt to alter the status quo in the region. This unilateral action increases the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculations.
This announcement by the People's Republic of China will not in any way change how the United States conducts military operations in the region.
The United States is conveying these concerns to China through diplomatic and military channels, and we are in close consultation with our allies and partners in the region, including Japan.
We remain steadfast in our commitments to our allies and partners. The United States reaffirms its longstanding policy that Article V of the U.S.-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands.
I won't speak for everyone, but my pucker factor just went up.
UPDATE: China already miscalculated by compelling South Korea to protest the new zone since it encroaches on South Korean territory and their own air defense identification zone:
"We find it regretful that China's air defence zone partly overlaps with our military's KADIZ (Korean Air Defense Identification Zone) in the area west of Jeju Island," said a ministry statement, according to Yonhap news agency. ...
A military source quoted by Yonhap said the overlapping area is 20 kilometres (12.5 miles) wide and 115 kilometres long.
The Chinese zone also includes the South Korean-controlled submerged rock that lies within the two countries' overlapping economic zones, according to a defence ministry official quoted by the news agency.
I'm sure there could never be any other miscalculations by China.
Pucker factor. Redlining.
