So what's up with this development?
Japan and Russia held their first joint defense and foreign ministers' meeting on Saturday and agreed to boost security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific as they both warily watch neighboring China's rising influence.
Japan and Russia have never signed a treaty to mark the end of World War Two because of a territorial dispute but they are moving to deepen ties despite that, and despite Russian concern about Japan's role in a U.S. missile defense program.
Could Russia be serious about pivoting to the Pacific, as I've wanted? Anchoring their seaward flank would help Russia face south.
Japan would gain breathing space to continue to shift forces south toward China from their Cold War pattern of facing north to confront Russia.
China would face the need to divert resources from their fleet and naval air power to reinforce their Russian border.
This would lessen the pressure on states confronting China in the South China Sea and make our military tasks easier.
Sure, Russia would face the prospect of China increasing their ground and air power facing them, but Russia already faces heavy odds. Getting a friendly Japan might buy them some time to build up their own ground power.
And a friendlier Japan would mean that Russia's SSBN bastion in the Sea of Okhotsk will be more secure--with obvious deterrence advantages regarding China.
UPDATE: Very related:
Russia is currently a close ally [of China]. This is something of an unnatural act. China is the major potential threat to Russia because of centuries old land disputes and the fact that there are few people in the Russian territory on the Chinese border. Meanwhile the Chinese Army is three times larger than the Russian forces and has fifteen tank and mechanized infantry divisions it could quickly move to the Russian border. Officially, Russia has ceased to consider Chinese ground forces a threat as Russian nuclear weapons are supposed to be what would stop a Chinese ground assault. Traditionalists in the Defense Ministry are pointing out that nuclear war would destroy both nations and that the current situation allows China to quickly grab the Russian Far East (which China has long claimed) and then call for a peace conference. This is the sort of tactic China has used in the past and the Chinese are big fans of their imperial past. No one mentions this publicly because even in Russia the old adage “keep your friends close and your enemies closer” seems like good advice for the current situation.
Yes, until Russia gets closer to having a credible conventional defense in the Far East, they have to smile at China and act friendly.
Poor Russia, so far from God, so close to China.
