Sunday, November 24, 2013

I'm Not Reassured So Far

Will and Hanson think Iran will go nuclear.

The major questions are what Iran will do with their eventual nuclear weapons (nuke Israel, shield a more aggressive foreign policy against Iraq, Afghanistan, small Arab Gulf states; intensify their terror campaigns); what Israel will do (to bomb or not to bomb Iran, expand their nuclear arsenal); when the Saudis, Turks, and Egyptians will respond so they can deter Iran with their own nukes; and whether other non-nuclear allies will decide our nuclear umbrella isn't strong enough to protect them from a nuclear foe (Japan and South Korea, mostly, but Taiwan, too).

And for those here who think the deal is great and that war mongers just wanted to bomb Iran for jollies, remember that your preferred policy of containment requires your open willingness to commit mass murder against Iranians in order to deter Iranian use of nukes. That's about as far from R2P as you can get.

Oh, and for added yucks, the interim period ends in mid-2014, just as the mid-term elections primary season gets going. How likely is it that the Obama administration will clamp down on Iran and implicitly admit they screwed up when it could have a bad effect on those elections for Congress?

Face it, the administration will claim that Iran's nuclear ambitions are on the run and that their nuclear program is dead.

I retain some hope that our military has prepared a military option that accommodates even a last-minute resolve to destroy Iran's nuclear arsenal when it appears.

God help us, but I think the Obama administration really thinks they achieved a triumph here.

UPDATE: Carafano has thumbs down.

And if you really want confirmation of the badness of the deal, consider that Fareed Zakaria--who couldn't find his own buttocks with both hands and a GPS signal--thinks it is swell!

At least we didn't offer concessions to get Iran to freeze development on their F-313 "stealth fighter."

UPDATE: Good God, the press corps probably isn't going to be of any help in getting the administration to understand that they did not achieve a diplomatic triumph:

President Barack Obama has pulled off a historic deal with Iran on curbing its nuclear program but he and other global leaders now have tough work ahead turning an interim accord into a comprehensive agreement.

It's surely historic. Iran getting the time to go nuclear will go down in history, no doubt. But there is no reason to celebrate this.

No worries, we'll get through whatever "glitches" arise, eh?