Rebels outside Assad's core region in the west scored a major success:
Islamist rebels led by al Qaeda-linked fighters seized the largest oil field in eastern Syria on Saturday, activists said, a raid which would cut off President Bashar al-Assad's access to almost all local crude reserves.
There was no immediate comment from the government. Losing the al-Omar oil field would mean Assad's forces would be almost completely reliant on imported oil in their highly mechanized military campaign to put down a 2-1/2-year uprising.
Pity it was Islamists who scored the success. But this puts more financial pressure on Iran if they have to replace the lost oil (will we really rescue Iran's Syria expedition--among other benefits to Iran--by relaxing sanctions for chimerical concessions on nukes?!).
I'd be somewhat shocked if Assad dispatched forces that far east. It's surely important, but the core region is the core for a reason and I don't think Assad's victory parade is really more than penciled in. We'll see if local loyalist forces can retake it.
Back in the main arena, even as the Shia Foreign Legion (Hezbollah and other Shia foreign volunteers) recruited and paid for by Iran can spearhead Assad attacks into rebel territory, Assad's main forces still have to hold their ground.
The rebels counter-attacked in one town, apparently successfully:
Hundreds of rebels now control most of Deir Attiyeh, with the exception of the Bassel hospital and a small hill, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
The majority Christian town north of Damascus is home to 10,000 people and is situated on the strategic route linking the capital to Homs in central Syria.
Remember, Assad's forces should be able to roll into towns at will, given their firepower and armor. The rebels are too lightly armed to do more in the face of a major Assad effort.
The real test is whether Assad's forces can then hold them when the foreign-spearheaded forces move on to take the next town and leave less-motivated security forces to hold the gain.
Remember, it is clear and hold.
And while Assad may believe he can slaughter and starve his opponents into submission as long as he doesn't use chemical weapons, that's a tough strategy to follow. Who knows? The sainted international community might even find that distasteful enough to make them take official notice of the death toll.
And more practically speaking, the Turks might decide they have to act rather than risk hosting lots of dangerous refugees on their soil.
