Strategypage reports that the Ethiopians are pulling their troops out of Somalia:
Ethiopia said that "the first contingents" of its troops in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, have begun withdrawing from Somalia and heading back to Ethiopia. Ethiopia said that it had already reduced "by a third" the number of Ethiopian troops in Mogadishu. Most sources believe Ethiopia committed 5,000 to 8,000 troops to the war in Somalia (with 10,000 a possibility).
Anywhere from 5k to 10k troops were involved. Like I wrote back at the time:
The "heavy footprint" point is ridiculous. If the Ethiopians have three brigades
involved, I'll be shocked.
I was using an assumption of 5,000 troops per brigade just for numbers. So 15,000 troops seemed way too much. It looks like the Ethiopians did indeed have three brigades involved (implied to me by their withdrawal of a third of their forces--three brigades per division usually), so I'm shocked at that. But the total number of troops is well under the level that would have shocked me (15,000). If I remember my assumptions correctly, I think I was assuming three groups of forces that in total were fewer than 5,000 troops. So Ethiopia committed more troops than I thought, but not more than I figured was beyond a reasonable estimate.
Remember, those waxing on about the Ethiopians were comparing their major combat operations phase with our counter-insurgency (and counter-terrorism) phase rather than with our major combat operations phase. When a rabble pretends it is an army, a real army will smash the pretend army every time.
The job of stabilizing Somalia will be tough. Knocking off the Islamic Courts thugs was necessary and a victory, but it isn't neatly wrapped up (as most successes are not neatly wrapped up).
