Has China created a spam monster? The use of spam (unsolicited email) has tripled in the last six months, and if the current growth continues, by the end of the year, over 90 percent of all email will be spam. ...
Yes, there are Internet criminals in China, but many are known to carry out their Internet scams only as long as they do not target Chinese (at least those in China), and "cooperate" with the government. There is not going to be a major criminal operation, via the Internet, based in China, for the last six months, without the Chinese government having a hand in it.
The Chinese government is not bashful about its Cyber War efforts, although officials are more reticent when it comes to details. It is known that the Chinese government makes use of civilian "irregulars," and even mercenaries, for some of its Cyber War tasks. The question is, what purpose is being served with the current spam flood? Just fund raising for the Chinese Cyber War troops? Could it be just one part of a larger campaign? A lot of nasty Internet activity has been coming out of China lately, including very targeted attacks on American military bases, and individual military personnel.
Before any sizable military operation, one can usually see increased military or related activity. Bolts from the blue are very rare. The signs might only be obvious in retrospect, but they are there.
Yes, I know, we are far more powerful than China despite the often hyped "rise" of the Chinese superpower. Whenever reports are out that point this out, I hasten to agree.
But we aren't more powerful in all areas of the globe at all times. If China wants to take Taiwan, for example, they need only maintain superiority long enough to conquer Taiwan. They are close. We are far. Our power will take longer to arrive than theirs. Longer enough for China to win? I don't know.
The Chinese have certainly expended efforts to deploy sea denial weapons to make us wary of sending in our naval forces to intervene quickly. Ideally, from the Chinese point of view, they overrun Taiwan before we can even decide to intervene let alone reach the scene with sufficient combat power to stop the Chinese.
If the Chinese can slow us down by non-military means, so much the better. The Chinese know we rely on the Internet and communications generally for our military, and so would seek to level the playing field by denying us one of our major advantages. With a recent anti-satellite test and ongoing cyber-activity, the Chinese show two ways of nullifying our advantage in battle. Two ways that might not trigger a decision by us for war the way a direct attack on our military units would.
And really, it doesn't even matter much to Chinese decisionmakers if we are stronger yet the Chinese believe we are weaker or just weak morally.
So I ask again, why the increased Chinese cyber activity?
UPDATE: Strategypage has an interesting post:
It takes a lot of special skills to build and maintain a botnet. Moreover, the larger botnets (100,000 or more zombies) can be used as military weapons. A botnet that size can shut down military websites, or be used to worm its way into classified sites. Do any governments maintain their own botnets? No one is admitting to it. But in preparing for a future Cyber War, whoever has the biggest botnets, will likely prevail. Currently, there is one huge botnet, with up to 100,000 zombies, that seems to be doing nothing. Rather ominous.
With the profit that such a botnet could provide criminals, who would set up such a botnet and then not use it to make money? The Chinese to attack us or somebody on our side preparing a counter-attack against China? I don't assume either option must be true.
