Well, the usual suspect certainly is in the minds of the South Koreans:
A South Korean naval ship was sinking on Friday after possibly being hit by a North Korean torpedo and several sailors were killed, South Korean media reported.
A South Korean warship later fired at an unidentified vessel toward the north, indicating a possible attack, and the South's presidential Blue House was holding an emergency security meeting, the Yonhap news agency said.
"The ship appears to have begun sinking after an explosion at the rear of the ship," Yonhap quoted the South Korean Navy saying in a statement. "We have been unable to find the exact cause of the incident as of this moment."
News since that story came out is that the ship sank. It is unclear how many sailors died. It could be an accident. Not everything bad that happens near North Korea is caused by North Korea. Ideally, the South Koreans can raise the ship and tow it to port to examine the impact.
If the North Koreans are responsible, it would be one heck of a provocation given that such an incident would not be an unexpected escalation but a deliberate ambush by the North Koreans.
I'll have to look at maps of the area. It may be that South Korea would want to retaliate--if North Korea is guilty of sinking the ship--by building up their military presence on the disputed islands out there that South Korea holds.
Or, South Korea should sink the next North Korean ship that puts to sea. Maybe, if North Korea denies responsibility, the South Koreans could quietly lay mines where North Korean ships like to play. And then insist that the mines must have been left over from a training exercise, or something.
Best to keep this an off-shore crisis where South Korea has a good advantage (nothwithstanding this sinking) than escalate on the DMZ where plenty of ROK civilians could die if the tit-for-tat goes too far.
Still, you have to wonder what else the North Koreans are willing to do if they are indeed guilty of this attack.
UPDATE: Stratfor emails:
A South Korean presidential spokesman said North Korea did not cause the sinking of the South Korean vessel Cho An.
As my title implied, I didn't want to jump to conclusions. although if North Korea does choose to challenge the South Koreans at sea, I'd expect a submarine ambush that achieves a result that looks just like this rather than a surface clash that the South Koreans are likely to win.
UPDATE: Forty-six sailors are missing. I don't hold out much hope for their souls at this point.
At a higher level, this apparent accident highlights the danger of North Korea's hostile rhetoric even when the Pillsbury Nuke Boy doesn't intend to attack South Korea:
Despite early fears of an attack, there was no immediate indication that North Korea — which lies within sight about 10 miles (17 kilometers) from Baengnyeong — was to blame, the Joint Chiefs said. Still, troops were maintaining "solid military readiness," Vice Defense Minister Jang Soo-man said.
Earlier, North Korea's military threatened "unpredictable strikes" against the U.S. and South Korea in anger over a report the two countries plan to prepare for possible instability in the totalitarian country.
The potential is clear:
- North Korea issues threats of destruction against South Korea.
- Something in South Korea shortly thereafter is destroyed in an accident.
- South Koreas assume North Korea is responsible, and partially mobilizes just in case.
- North Korea, knowing they didn't do the deed assume "war mongers and militarists" in Seoul are planning war on the pretext, and knowing that they are weaker than South Korea and so can't afford to let South Korea strike first, unleash their only military threat--they pound Seoul with thousands of artillery pieces poised north of the DMZ
- South Korea then invades North Korea to at least try to clear the area within range of Seoul of North Korean artillery pieces and attacks longer range missile sites deep in North Korea.
For a long time, North Korea could make threats secure in the knowledge that South Korea couldn't do anything about those threats without American help. And America is far enough away not to take many of those threats too seriously--at least not seriously enought to react hastily. Our capital (and a quarter of our population) was never threatened.
But now South Korea has the military power relative to a rotting North Korea to do something about those North Korean threats. And North Korea keeps making the threats.
Now we're having fun, eh?
