Thursday, January 25, 2007

The Winning Side

Sometimes, war supporters seem to think that unless our military is razing the cities around them, it means we are fighting with our hands tied behind our back. Discussions of needing non-military progress as the key are sometimes dismissed as wishy washy.

While I think we have fought with too many restriction over the last year, it is still true that military action is a necessary but not sufficient component of winning a counter-insurgent and counter-terrorist war. We do need political and economic progress as the main weapon, enabled by successful security measures.

This article discusses the progress in Anbar as a result of the deals made with local Sunni Arab tribal sheiks, at the prodding of Sheik Sattar Bazeaa Fatikhan, to fight the jihadis with us:

After Sunni insurgents killed his father and four of his brothers last year, Fatikhan declared war against the insurgency.

He convened a summit of about a dozen prominent sheiks. From that meeting came a document called "The Awakening," in which Fatikhan persuaded all but one sheik to join him in opposition to the insurgency.

The sheiks pledged to encourage young men to join the police force and even the Shiite-led army. The document states that killing an American is the same as killing a member of their tribes. Since the gathering, Fatikhan said, the sheiks have "eliminated" a number of insurgents.


The Sunni Arab sheiks in Anbar do not seem to think we are losing this war. The jihadis succeeded only in turning more Iraqis against them by their brutal tactics and horrible goals. The jihadis killed Anbar Sunni Arabs and the Sunni Arabs turned on the jihadis.

We would have seen the same thing in central Iraq by now if not for the Sadr puppet boys killing Sunni Arabs at Tehran's order in large numbers since February 2006. These Sunni Arabs sought Sunni terrorist protection since these terrorists are the only sympathic force available to fight back against Shia death squads.

That is why the need to nail Sadr and the other poodles of Iran is so necessary to winning in Iraq. One way or the other, we must neutralize the Shia death squads. Do that and we can spread the Iraqi national resistance to foreign invasion to countering Iran and Syria.

Political progress isn't a substitute for military action. But success can make military action more effective. By gaining allies and depriving the enemy of a support and recruiting base, we make sure that the enemy loses gunmen faster than they can be replaced and so reduce the enemy strength in the field. This makes it easier for our side to track down the smaller numbers of the enemy. It is a virtuous cycle with each component accelerating the other component.

We can see the same thing happening against us. The enemy kills us but we replace our losses easily and continue to kill the enemy. So the enemy is trying to gain allies and deprive us of support to decrease our numbers faster than we can replace them. This is done by trying to discourage us and fool us into thinking we cannot win. This is having an effect and in time will reduce our strength in the field fighting the enemy.

So we are in a race against time. But I remain confident that we and our Iraqi allies can win faster than our domestic opposition can surrender for us.