Although experts elsewhere have questioned Israel's ability to cripple the Iranian program, which is scattered and built in part in underground bunkers, analysts at INSS said Israel would be capable of carrying it off.
I have no doubt that Israel can set Iran's program back some finite amount of time. But Israel can't carry out a sustained campaign that goes back to strike targets again after bomb damage assessment rules a target is not taken out or after observation detects another hithterto unknown site. The single strike package could miss something important. So Israel might do a really good job with a single lunge. Or Israel might not do much damage at all. Or something in between.
Nor can Israel carry out the other types of attacks that would harm Iran's ability to retaliate after the smoke clears. When Israel hit Iraq's Osirak reactor 25 years ago, Iraq was kind of busy at war with Iran and in no position to retaliate directly. Iran suffers no such handicap. So a quick strike by Israel that perhaps optimistically cripples Iran's nuclear program would leave the rest of Iran's poison gas and missle arsenal intact.
For a campaign that cripples Iran's offensive capabilities, only America has that power.
But as I've written, if we don't do the job, Israel will try. Never again means something to the Israelis.
