Media throughout the Sunni Arab world is getting more strident about the Iranian threat. Ancient terms for the Iranians are being revived, and past defeats at the hands of the Iranians are recounted in gory detail. The message is clear, the Shia Arab majority in Iraq cannot be allowed to control the country. For then, the Shia would control nearly 40 percent of the oil and gas in the Persian Gulf (which contains half the oil and gas in the world). The Sunni Arab nightmare has always been that the Iranians would come and take their oil. With Shia Arabs controlling Iraq, and allied with Shia Iran, that nightmare gets too close for comfort.
If this is true, we must soothe the worries of the Sunni Arab world over a Shia Arab Iraq following their Shia but Persian brethren rather than their Arab but Sunni brethren. And Amir Taheri thinks the Arab world is girding for battle against Iran (which I wrote about here) in this article:
Fear of a showdown with Iran has triggered an arms race. The GCC states have placed orders for 150 ultra-modern European and American fighter jets and are negotiating massive purchases of surface-to-surface missiles from China and Russia. Average defense budgets in the region show a 17 percent increase.
The GCC group and Egypt have also launched studies to create a nuclear industry - ostensibly for peaceful use, but clearly designed to meet a Iranian military threat.
Tehran started beating the drums of war over a year ago. If one listens carefully, one can now hear the response from the Arab side - in the form of faint drumbeats that are bound to get louder in the months ahead.
Without Iran, a lot of hostile forces in the region will be far weaker. Are we about to cut the Gordian Nut?
