Monday, January 08, 2007

An Iran War Overview

If we hit Iran, either with a strike on nuclear facilities, it might be useful to review how it might unfold.

Iran would fight back.

So we'd have to launch a wider campaign that also targets Iran's military and political infrastructure. We will launch the attack with many assets.

Israel will not allow Iran to go nuclear. The Israelis will strike if we don't.

Israel may well use nuclear weapons if they don't think they can stop Iran with a conventional assault.

And if Israel does not strike first and contents itself with trying deterrence, if Iran strikes anyway, Israel may hit back much harder and against a number of potential enemies and not just Iran.

Nor should other countries think they are safe from Iranian nukes just because Iran hates Jews the most. Once the Iranians decide to cross the nuclear threshold, why would they restrain themselves?

In the end, it is our job to stop Iran. Only we have a chance at keeping nuclear strikes out of the mix. Ideally with regime change in Iran. But a military campaign may have to do in order to buy time.