Rounding Up the Usual Suspect

Let's see, America and our European allies have some disagreements on issues and so the Europeans feel shunned by us? Why isn't the story that we feel shunned by them?

The story mentions specific disagreements between America and Germany, France, and Britain.

Germany has been a pain for a while--seriously, explain to me how Germany's failures can be blamed on Trump--or even on Pompeo?

Seriously, Secretary of State Pompeo cancelled that Tuesday meeting with Merkel to visit Iraq to warn the Iraqis about Iranian threats to American troops there. That was more pressing than hearing yet more excuses about why wealthy Germany can't do more to pull their weight in NATO.

So I don't even want to hear German complaints.

And France has been hit or miss as an ally depending on what they think is in their interests--which according to the crowd who blames America for policy differences we apparently can't weigh, too.

As for Britain, we are close allies--this close, in fact. But we clearly disagree on issues revolving around Iran and Libya. And I think the British are wrong on Iran; and on a ceasefire in Libya, that just risks prolonging the chaos and death toll if it prevents an acceptable victory by an acceptable faction in the civil war, no?

Europeans should examine their own declining fortunes (tip to Instapundit) and their own policies as perhaps sources of the trans-Atlantic friction.

The bottom line why is the blame for differences automatically placed on America?

Fighting Israel to the Last Arab

Iran has no problem letting other people achieve Iran's goal of destroying Israel.

The United States has dispatched a carrier battle group and additional land-based air power to Central Command to watch Iran:

The Trump administration is deploying a carrier strike group and bombers to the Middle East in response to troubling "indications and warnings" from Iran and to show the United States will retaliate with "unrelenting force" to any attack, national security adviser John Bolton said on Sunday.

Just keep the carrier out of the Persian Gulf, okay? Because if sanctions bite too much, the target might see "peaceful" sanctions as equivalent to kinetic attacks and respond with armed means.

Speaking of potential Iranian retaliation for biting sanctions, did Hamas launch a 700-rocket barrage on Israeli civilian targets last weekend because Iran essentially ordered Hamas to do it?

The violent spasm from Hamas-run Gaza isn't just another episode in the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict or merely another incident in a cycle of violence in which the Palestinians are given no agency. It is a significant escalation that tests the prevailing rules of the game with Israel where Iran is demonstrating its ability to intensify the conflict by meddling in Palestinian affairs.

Remember, Hamas has been happy to launch weekly border assaults on Israel complete with balloon incendiary bombs behind human shields that Western media dutifully describes as "protests" in a gross distortion of the attacks. Why change to obvious rocket attacks that only the really drink-the-Hamas-kookaid fanboys (and girls) will swallow as really Israel's fault?

And is Hamas happy be dangled as chum to avoid giving Israel an excuse to invade Lebanese territory to rip apart Iran's real asset Hezbollah?

UPDATE: The reason we wanted extra forces to watch Iran:

The intelligence shows that an Iranian official discussed activating Iranian-backed groups to target Americans, but did not mention targeting the militaries of other nations, the officials said.

Among the specific threats the U.S. military is now tracking, officials say, are possible missile attacks by Iranian dhows, or small ships, in the Persian Gulf; attacks in Iraq by Iranian-trained Shiite militia groups; and attacks against U.S. ships by the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

And this is fine as a general rule:

The commander overseeing U.S. naval forces in the Middle East told Reuters on Thursday that American intelligence showing a threat from Iran will not prevent him from sending an aircraft carrier through the vital Strait of Hormuz, if needed.

We don't need to and we shouldn't, to again note my post linked above.

See No Stealth, Make No Stealth, Fear No Stealth?

After failing to derail the F-35 with propaganda questioning its development the Russians are now apparently accepting their own propaganda at face value.

So the stealth F-35 according to the Russians is not a big deal?

The growing number of stealth aircraft being fielded by the United States and its allies presents Russia with an unprecedented challenge. Yet, rather than acknowledge the qualitative leap in capability that a larger and more sophisticated fleet of stealth aircraft brings with it, contemporary Russian commentators and senior military officials have, for the most part, elected to follow a long-standing Russian tradition of publicly downplaying the utility of stealth. Their misleading and often inane statements on US and allied stealth aircraft are voiced with the purpose of bolstering the standing of the Russian Armed Forces in the eyes of the international community, instilling a sense of national pride among Russian audiences, and downplaying the severity of Russia’s stealth technology lag behind the United States.

Russia's stealth efforts have faltered big time despite Russian claims.

It is kind of funny that after Russia failed to convince Congress not to fund the F-35 with propaganda that the plane wasn't worth the expense, that Russia seems to have fallen for their own fake news.

Hey, whatever the Russians need to sleep at night, I suppose. Just wait until China manages to field planes even somewhat close to our growing stealth capabilities.

So the author has a good point that America and the West have to take defense against stealth seriously despite the lack of comparable threats yet to our forces. That threat will emerge given time despite our lead starting in the 1980s.

Of course, this Russian "misleading and often inane" narrative on stealth might simply be a continuation of the propaganda effort in a last-ditch effort to convince American allies not to buy the plane despite the failure of the campaign to keep America (and Britain and Japan) from buying the plane.

But if the Russian propaganda campaign dismissing stealth ended up only convincing themselves, it would be hilarious.

Just Who Was in Thrall to Putin?

It still amazes me that Democrats insist Putin is "playing" Trump as if Trump isn't pushing back against Russia in contrast to Obama's flexibility and retreat.

Obama began his administration ignoring Russia's late 2008 invasion of Georgia in order to begin the famous "reset" with Russia, complete with abandoning the Bush missile defense plan on the day the USSR invaded Poland in 1939. Early in his administration Obama formally declared a "medium term rule" scarily reminiscent of Britain's "ten year rule" in the 1930s that said America faced no conventional military threats. Obama famously promised Putin "flexibility" after his reelection, remember?



Obama mocked the very idea that Russia was our main geopolitical foe as Romney said in a 2012 debate (to the delight of Democrats):



Does any of this ring a bell?

Obama ignored Russia's violation of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty, accepted the Russian proposal for a chemical weapons agreement with Syria that did not eliminate Assad's chemical weapons or prevent Assad from using them and which helped Assad survive the rebellion, did nothing to stop election interference in 2016, refused to enable energy production in America to reduce Russia's oil sale income, pulled our last tanks out of Europe, and allowed American military readiness and war reserve stocks of ammunition to drop to dangerous levels.

Yes, Obama made late and small additions to American forces in Europe while imposing some sanctions on Russia for Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014. But the overall message was one of not provoking Russia rather than helping Ukraine fight.

Trump encourages energy production which expanded under Obama only in areas away from Obama's prior obstruction, Trump is reinforcing American forces in Poland and Germany, including adding more tanks, reestablished Second Fleet to fight for control of the sea lines of communication between North America and Europe, reestablished a logistics command in Europe to supply forces in eastern NATO, pushed missile defenses at home and in Europe, brought non-NATO Sweden and Finland into defense preparations in the Baltic region, reinforced NATO in Romania while pushing back against Russian claims to dominate the Black Sea, rebuked the INF treaty that only America was obeying, began rebuilding American readiness and war reserve stocks, bombed Syrian chemical weapons facilities despite Russia's presence in Syria, began selling lethal weapons to Ukraine to fight Russia in the Donbas, restored our military focus on conventional warfare and our focus on great power competition that includes Russia, loudly insisted that NATO members make good on their 2014 pledge to spend more on defense, strengthened our defenses against potential Russian meddling in the 2018 election, tightened sanctions on Russia, and warned Russia to stay away from Venezuela.

These contrasting positions in regard to Russia are simply off the top of my head and I assume more could be added to each category of actions with some research and thought.

And of course, the sudden Democratic rage against Russia is truly astounding on top of their amazing ability to ignore the very real change in policy toward Russia from Obama to Trump. Seriously, the way Democrats claim Trump is being played by Putin should mean that they'd insist on treason* charges being leveled at Obama if they looked at my back-of-envelope list of his enabling policies.

The only real issue Democrats have is the optics of Trump's relations with Putin. And while I sometimes cringe, the policies are harsh.

And in fairness to Trump, we do have an interest in getting Russia to come to its senses and make peace with America and Europe. It is insane for America to have to bolster forces in Europe to block a paranoid Russia creating a threat in the West where none existed notwithstanding the expansion of NATO into former Soviet vassal states who fear Russia might return.

We need every swinging **** (or every flapping **** as the female drill sergeants would say to the female trainees) in the Indo-Pacific region to face a rising China and bolster our allies and friends. So of course we'd like peace with Russia given we have zero interest in conquering Russia which could weaken us and preclude a Russia-China split any time soon. If we can stop the Russians from being paranoid a-holes long enough to make peace with us, that would be great.

And Russia should want peace with NATO to make European Russia a safe rear area to protect their Far East conquests from China in the 19th century from an increasingly powerful China.

So I can forgive soft words from Trump to Putin in public (despite grimacing at some of them) even as we deploy a big stick to Europe because in the short run we are acting to block Russia now; and in the long run we want Russia to stop their pointless hostility toward us so we can split Russia from China. I'd rather have China looking inland at India and Russia rather than having more interest and resources to point out to sea at America.

*And of course, "treason" is off the table despite its common usage these days because we are not actually at war with Russia--which is a necessary component of the crime of treason. But if you want to level the silly charge at Trump, there is more reason to level the silly charge at Obama.

UPDATE: Related, on style versus substance (tip to Instapundit). Sure, I'd like a president with "dignity, manners, grace and orderliness"--and sharply creased pants if you insist. But I'd rather have economic growth, liberty, and strong defenses. And the former clearly aren't a requirement for the latter.

What will Americans decide is more important in 2020?

Between Divisions and Corps?

China's army is no longer the endless horde of sturdy peasant soldiers that acted like a sponge to absorb the damage inflicted by better equipped armies.

It is interesting that Chinese "group armies" consist of 6 maneuver brigades plus supporting elements. From the Pentagon's 2019 report on Chinese military power.

These group armies don't control much more than our previous Army divisions during the Iraq War expansion of 4 brigade combat teams (and I noticed this last year about the 13 PLAA group armies), which if memory serves me could command another BCT in a pinch.

You could add in GA equivalents for PLAF airborne forces and PLAN marine units, giving China 15 GAs or equivalents.

Our 10 active Army divisions (and add in 3 active Marine divisions) are back to triangular configuration. I don't know if divisional span of control still aims for 5 maneuver brigades.

Still, the Pentagon report calls the Chinese group armies equivalent to our corps. Really?

Organizationally with regard to officer ranks commanding that is no doubt true. And they have twice as many maneuver brigades as our divisions, so sort of.

But I'm guessing the support forces in those GAs aren't much bigger than our support forces for an American division.

It is also interesting that the Chinese have adopted from the Russians the much-hyped battalion tactical group. The difference is that rather than representing the usable combat forces in a Russian brigade, the Chinese battalion battlegroups are all functional within the brigades.

Still, for old-fashioned infantry, the People's Armed Police will be available to support the PLAA.

Who Brings Up Reinforcements to Tripoli Faster?

Has Hiftar (Haftar) reached a culminating point outside Tripoli in his offensive to take Libya's capital from the formally recognized and jihadi-friendly GNA government and its militias?

After five weeks of fighting LNA (Libyan National Army) forces are stalled in the southern suburbs of Tripoli. The many Islamic militias that have controlled Tripoli since 2011 are in a panic and becoming even more oppressive to the civilian population. There have been over a thousand dead and wounded so far and more than 50,000 civilians have fled their homes to avoid the fighting. The LNA can only bring up a limited number of reinforcements without risking problems elsewhere in Libya.

Normally in an offensive that is advancing, the attacker loses power from losses, supply and replacement problems as the advance continues, and the need to protect flanks and garrison captured territory. Meanwhile the defender, even as it suffers casualties, is falling back on sources of supply and replacements, while absorbing rear area garrisons as the retreat continues.

Eventually those two vectors can cross, and the attacker loses the advantage it had that allowed it to start pushing the defender back, so the attacker must halt its offensive. That is called the culminating point. Is that what is happening to Hiftar outside Tripoli?

We'll see if Hiftar can shift forces, add firepower and forces (from defection and recruitment) to regain the advantage. Perhaps GNA militias will dissolve. But they might grow stronger.

And consider who supports the GNA:

Haftar has the support of most Libyans along with Russia, most Arab states, especially Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE and now the United States as well. The UN opposes Hiftar, as does ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant), the Moslem Brotherhood and pro-brotherhood nations like Turkey, Qatar and Iran.

I long wondered why we supported the GNA over Hiftar's LNA.

And note Turkey's support for the GNA. Libya was once part of the Ottoman Empire. Erdogan seeks to rebuild Turkish influence in those territories. So a victory of Hiftar will represent a defeat for Erdogan on top of his defeat due to the fall of Bashir in Sudan.

The Main Conventional Threat to the ROK Moved to the PRC

South Korea will add to their naval heft with 3 more Aegis destroyers and 3 submarines. Because China's air and naval threat to South Korean sea lines of communication increases while North Korea's ground threat to Seoul decreases.

This decision is part of a long trend in South Korean military development:

South Korea on April 30 approved the construction of a second batch of three KDX-III Sejong the Great-class multi-purpose destroyers and three more indigenously designed KSS-III (Jangbogo–III-class) diesel-electric attack submarines (SSKs).

The Defense Project Promotion Committee of South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) approved the $6.3 billion procurement last month. The new destroyers and submarines are expected to join the Republic of Korean Navy (ROKN) in the late 2020s.

The three new KDX-III destroyers will be equipped with the Aegis combat system and an upgraded missile launch system that will enable the warships to conduct ballistic missile defense. The surface combatants will feature “improved naval and anti-submarine warfare capabilities,” according to DAPA.

Missile defense is of course useful against North Korea, too.

But the South Korean naval build up has been going on for a while as North Korea's ground threat withers.

Deflating the Battalion Tactical Group

I missed this initially, but I enjoyed this article in Armor magazine taking some of the hype out of the Russian battalion tactical groups. I think the BTGs are simply the usable parts of Russian brigades and so should really be thought of as their brigades in practice. Anyway, that article author writes:

In summary, a BTG is not a maneuver formation in the traditional sense; it will not close with its enemy to destroy them through firepower and maneuver. Instead, it is an asset provider to relatively static paramilitary units who, in turn, act as a guard force for the BTG and deny adversary personnel access to the geographic areas the BTG is assigned to control. However, the BTG is capable of extremely lethal strikes against its adversary and will execute those strikes whenever both assurance of success is high and the risk to BTG personnel and equipment is low. With that in mind, U.S. BCTs should employ tactics that make one or both of those criteria uncertain at best.

The Russian brigades that provide those BTGs can provide some replacements from the remainder and generate more replacements for those BTGs that the brigades formed, but that still means that the BTG is essentially the brigade in the field. And that support could be across the country too far to sustain the BTG in heavy combat.

As I understand it, some brigades can generate more than one BTG, but even combined those BTGs are less effective than deploying a 2-battalion brigade would be.

The result is that those BTGs are strong in firepower but fragile instruments that rely on local militias for some of the support that a true brigade would have in the field.

Stop treating these units like some revolutionary development. They are a means Russia is using to cope with lack of readiness in their army to put some combat-ready forces in the field because the brigades just aren't ready for combat.

More Quacking Like a Duck

We're not wrong:

The United States accused China on Friday of putting well more than a million minority Muslims in "concentration camps," in some of the strongest U.S. condemnation to date of what it calls Beijing's mass detention of mostly Muslim Uighur minority and other Muslim groups.

Unless you want to spin them as "fun camps" what else do you call them?

And remember, while we generally see "concentration camp" as a synonym for Nazi "death camps," that is technically not the case.

Concentrations camps concentrate people in one place for better control. That is what China is doing.

Although torture and brainwashing are part of the reason for concentrating those people in Xinjiang province.

And that's on top of the ethnic cleansing as China moves Han Chinese colonists into the region to swamp the locals by numbers.

The global left-wing outrage machine that so easily gets turned to "11" for any minor American mistake or even an erroneous allegation is strangely silent over this.

Weekend Data Dump

Ukraine's new president-elect said he couldn't imagine why free Ukrainians would want a Russian passport as Putin offered, saying a Russian passport would give the holders "the right to be arrested for a peaceful protest" and "the right not to have free and competitive elections."

Jihadis, and disunion, and corruption! Oh my. American airstrikes continue to mow the grass there.

The F-35 can fight and the pilots like it. It represents, as I noted, a different way of looking at aerial combat. As long as it can't be hacked, I'm happy. We can be glad Russian propaganda didn't work. Note to self, only the Air Force version has the internal 25mm cannon while the Marine version doesn't have as much room for internally carried weapons.

That restaurant went out of business? Will wonders never cease? It was based on two mistakes. One, a failure to understand that men earn more than women--on average--because men--again, on average--work more than women. And two, failing to understand that men would naturally pay more than women for meals at the restaurant without adding a punishing surcharge because--again, on average--men are larger and so eat more food than women. Tip to Instapundit.

Two American destroyers sailed through the Taiwan Strait which China claims as their waters--along with Taiwan itself, of course.

We aren't bombing Afghan drug labs anymore because it was not cost-effective. The idea that we were using F-22s is kind of ridiculous. Although the experience was good for the pilots and seeing what the stealth plane can do,  why does our scarce top-of-the-line fighter need bombing experience?

Russian defense spending is down and they've dropped out of the top 5 spenders. When they have the world's longest land border to defend, that's a problem. Of course, the author of the article oddly notes that tiny Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are increasing defense spending "despite" Russia's decline in spending. Good grief, is the author incapable of seeing that even with declining spending that Russia can overwhelm those three countries before NATO can help?

Soylent Green Compost ... is people!

Modern computers in the "virtual twin" test take up far less space than the ginormous computers installed on our destroyers to run the Aegis radar systems.

That's just wonderful and all that, but if you dropped the young woman into an ISIL stronghold they'd still kill her for being un-Islamic. And don't think I'm not paying attention. I noticed that this magazine went approvingly from exploiting Western women in their swimsuit edition to exploiting all women of all religions in an intersectional backflip that no feminist is questioning.

Army squads are falling short on infantry skills? Fix that. Before long those skills and not marksmanship will be what sets our troops above enemies. The Close Combat Lethality Task Force has a lot of work to do.

Yeah, if Mueller knew there was no Russia collusion well before the November 2018 election, sitting on that fact until this year could have affected the Congressional elections, no?  Tip to Instapundit.

It is not accurate to say that American coalition bombings killed 1,600 civilians in Raqqa, especially if the implication is that we committed war crimes. The fact is that it is not a war crime if civilians die in the process of attacking legitimate military targets in a lawful manner. And if enemies use human shields, the death of civilians killed by our forces is legally on the enemy using human shields--which is a war crime--and not on American forces that fire the weapons. This caveat applies to this story that American military operations killed 120 civilians last year.

I assumed the advice would be to campaign in Michigan and Wisconsin. But no, she's an idiot who has no idea what happened.

The idea that the American war effort in Yemen--where we are largely "leading from behind" a Saudi coalition--is illegal is nonsense. War powers are a complicated thing. 

I'm going to need to run this by Bill Nye before I accept the science. Just don't call me a science denier until that happens, okay?

No word on whether the terror attack prevented by French authorities was by yellow vest or green crescent varieties of people.

Californians want all of us to have expensive gasoline. Can't they just be happy they have been blessed with the results of their policies?

Sri Lanka had 12 days of warning "in detail" about the Easter Day mass murder of Christians. Mind you, we don't know how many warnings there were that didn't result in any attack. But given the speed with which Sri Lanka rounded up the usual suspects after the bombings, quick action during those 12 days probably would have saved a lot of lives.

The friggin' Nation is turning out to be the sane part of the vast liberal media empire in America. I'm honestly worried this is a sign of the Apocalypse.

Oh good, the Ebola outbreak in Congo is getting worse. Fighters in Congo have attacked and killed health workers trying to contain and stop the disease. People are just effing stupid, as a rule.

Weapons of Moby Dick? Well that's just odd. And that drive for WMD calls into question Russian tales of wonder weapons that will restore them to the heights of glory the Soviet Union reached. Although to be fair, training sea mammals for port defense is something we do with dolphins.

Twenty years ago I was bothered that only the Army National Guard's enhanced readiness separate brigades had roles envisioned for them in war. I wrote about the need to include the ARNG divisions in war planning in "A Total Army for Total War: The Guard Divisions' Role," Army Magazine, January 1999 (sorry, not online). This article advocates for making the ARNG division headquarters capable of wartime tasks.

I can already tell that I will not watch or read much political news from now until the election. Listening to Biden in a speech to supporters falsely say that ordinary people didn't get tax cuts from the Trump-backed legislation that the last Congress passed when the vast majority of people actually did (including me) was just infuriating. But the media has convinced people that the lie is true. If that's how it is going to be they can do it without me and I'll just show up for the voting in 2020. I won't need that kind of "news" to figure out who to vote for.

This is actual resistance to tyranny, for those who need to have their noses rubbed in it.

If true, Mattis was way outside his lane and I think less of him. Tip to Instapundit.

Palestinians are truly determined to keep the title of Most Stupid People on Earth: "In the West bank the Palestinian Fatah government is threatening to cause an economic catastrophe by refusing partial payments from Israel and donor nations unless everyone stops deducting the money Fatah spends on supporting and encouraging terrorist activity." If there is a more self-destructive people on Earth, I am unaware of them. Although during the Iraq War before the Awakening the Iraqi Arab Sunnis made a run at the top slot. But the Palestinians will never be the Queen of the Victims Prom again.

I'm one of the oldest Gen-Xers, and I feel fine. So what's going on?

Well that's inconvenient for the current migration theories. Thirty years ago a colleague in that field described a Clovis mafia that resisted evidence to the contrary. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia is conducting a victory tour over their Syrian campaign. Which did work--along with our parallel campaign against ISIL--to get Assad past the rebellion crisis, to be fair. Although the situation is still complicated and there is no guarantee that Russia can defend their battlefield victory.

About that so-called male privilege. Tip to Instapundit.

The F-35A is getting combat experience in Iraq where it bombed jihadi targets. Obviously the stealth plane is not needed to bomb terrorists. But it is good experience to see how the plane--and the system behind it--operates in a combat theater where Russia and Iran will attempt to watch the plane if not shoot at it.

British environmentalists give Russia a victory.  Tip to Instapundit.

If Nazis operated soup kitchens and free abortion clinics, would Nazis be okay?

The British defense minister was fired for trying to defend Britain--and the West--or perhaps just because Prime Minister May thought he did. She can't get Britain out of Europe but she will let China's spies in Britain. America should hire him for just recognizing that 5G is a national security issue.

Could Sudan actually get a constitutional democracy? Experience says no, but success has to start sometime no matter how long the road to rule of law. Getting rid of Bashir who ruled for 30 years isn't the end game. Will the new government send Bashir to stand trial for war crimes and genocide? Will the new government attempt to exact a price for sending him for trial?

That would be a measure of justice. Rule of law matters. Ant the irony is high. Russia may have meddled in our election not just because they could but because they hated Clinton. Yet Clinton and her media allies did more to advance Russia's intent to sow chaos and division in America than any actual Putin puppet could manage.

I really hate the Takl commercial running these days.

Cyber war, with a glossary.

And Western civilization takes another small hit. Eventually the small things add up. Tip to Instapundit.

Trump broke the poor woman. Sad.

Seriously, Trump did not call Nazis "fine people."  Keep in mind that the media has one job--to inform us--and they haven't been able to do that on this one easily rebutted charge. They're not the "enemy" of the people. And while they are politically biased I don't think of them as "fake" news. It might be as simple as basically they just suck at their job.

This would be a major victory by India over Pakistan if this FATF gambit pans out.

Okay, thank goodness we know this problem is coming because we really need sonobuoys in our arsenal.

We should really help friends who helped us in Iraq and Afghanistan make it to America.

Refusing to track Taliban versus government control in Afghanistan isn't a good idea even if our goal is to get out with no intent of winning. I mean, without that information how do we know if we will get a decent interval between withdrawal and defeat?

Russia and Syria have resumed heavy bombardments in the rebel-held northwest. Barrel bombs are being used.

So losing your physical caliphate is really a good thing? Sure, you go with that.

Russia and things related to Russia.

I remain perplexed that on the Obama Attorney General Loretta Lynch-Bill Clinton "tarmac meeting" people only ask what they talked about. Consistently we hear that they only had small talk. Nobody asks if information on Hillary and her email violations was exchanged. Talking is not the only way to exchange information. Of course, a more interesting possibility is that all Bill did was chat about nothing with Lynch--for a reason. Sure, it might have been motivated by ego. But if true, then you have to wonder whether the man who knows Hillary better than anybody saved America from that fate. I honestly have no idea which option is more plausible.

Where phones and the Internet help real resistance.

The Confederacy smiles. Tip to Instapundit.

North Korean [who aren't in the ruling elite] are suffering from food shortages.

From the "My how the flighty have fallen" files. Tip to Instapundit.

The New York Times: The Obama administration spied sent an FBI agent pretending to be somebody else to meet with a Trump aide to secretly collect information on Trump.

Working for the clampdown. Tip to Instapundit.

Yeah, that's "what happened." As I said in the campaign, Democrats nominated the only candidate who could lose to Trump and Republicans nominated the only candidate who could lose to Hillary. With Hillary winning the popular vote but Trump winning the only relevant metric--the Electoral College--I was pretty darned accurate. Tip to the PJ Media Live Blog.

This is a House committee hearing! You can't have science in here!

At this point it is hard to argue against the idea that Antifa is the paramilitary arm of the Portland government.

If you honestly believed the election of Trump would usher in an era of dictatorship and other nasty things, you were wrong. And let me say I knew you would be wrong. Discuss. And get a life.

No word if the "epic" changes at CBS's news operation will include actually reporting news rather than their opinions masquerading as news.

It is a lie that Bill Barr lied to Congress. Barr is just fine. My interest in following the presidential campaign goes down every day. I know who I'll vote for, so why inflict this spectacle on myself? Also, grant me that this is funny: “Barr is investigating Democrats. Democrats call for Barr to resign. According to Nadler, that’s obstruction of justice!”

It is significant that a country as populous as Indonesia has made a lot of progress in getting rule of law. The bad news is they have a long road to to before really defeating corruption. I hadn't heard about this progress until now. And yeah, America should not think we are immune to the problem. Although it is amusing that the author accuses Trump of corruption without even mentioning the Clinton family.

The American unemployment rate is the lowest since 1969, but I will raise the issue of the labor force participation rate as a qualifier. I noted that this statistic undermined the official rate during the Obama administration and I'll caution people to take that into account now.

College students aren't going hungry. The definition of "food insecurity" must be fascinating. I bet by their definition I was hungry in my college years a lot. But the fact is I got by. Even that week (maximum, I was waiting for my next pay check) I used by last cash to buy a bag of potatoes and a bottle of catsup which is what I ate until paid. I lived. I didn't feel food insecure. It was just something I had to do until I had money.

Ukraine's new president is a "rebuke" to Moscow and the election was quite clean. Which is good. And I also learned he was trained as a lawyer. If he can get a parliament to clean up Ukraine, Ukraine can avoid just being a smaller (and so weaker) version of corrupt Russia.

So what? Why do we get worked up by these North Korean short-range "projectile" launches into the sea when they are meaningless to building a North Korean nuclear missile threat? In an army less broken down than North Korea's military is, that would be called "training."

Just ... wow. The X-ray program of a direct path from civilian to special forces. I remember reading about the option but never read anything about how it worked out. Obviously, this isn't a major source of operators. For a long time I thought the nickname "green beret" for special forces had gone into disuse after the Vietnam War. Now I see it used frequently. I suspect that in pre-Internet days I just didn't see it in the sources I had.

Hamas continues to value trying to kill Israelis more important than anything else. And another day. And day three.

Given that only America is a reliable supplier of weapons to Taiwan because of Chinese pressure on other weapons producers, Taiwan is seeking more ability to produce their own advanced weapons. Good idea but I hope it isn't too little and too late.

Australian troops have been told to avoid slang in their training with American Marines deployed to Australia for exercises.  That is a good idea. A famous example is a British unit reporting its status during a Chinese offensive in the Korean War with some British understatement. American superiors at higher echelons didn't understand that the British were telling us they were in deep sh*t, and so sent scarce resources to American commanders reporting that they were in desperate need of help.

Lockheed (and I do have a small amount of their stock) says they can fit 2 more weapons into the internal bay of the F-35 with a new rack. I still think we could use some F-15EX (or F-15X) to replace rapidly aging F-15C fighters.

I really need to get back on track reading the Army 2-volume history of the Iraq War. I've been busy and I hate reading lengthy documents online.

It sure seems as if the Philippines is preparing itself to challenge China to keep Pagasa Islands. The Philippines can't defeat China in a full war, but the Philippines has a chance to defeat China in a tiny war--as long as America stands behind Manila to prevent China from going to war.

I apparently outlasted a woman who has fraudulently used me as a credit reference, resulting in at least 15 years of debt collectors calling me about her. No conversation ever convinced anyone I talked to that I should be left alone. I've joked that I'd have to outlive her. Apparently she died recently. I'm between dancing on her grave and mourning the loss of a human life. Leaning well away from the latter. Especially since she reached from beyond the grave according to a letter from the state of Michigan I just received. So I have that to deal with. May she burn in Hell, if that doesn't sound too awful. Or even if it does.

Could the British really come up with a compromise Brexit agreement in a few days? But even if they could, would the EU accept it?

The persistent Air Force pilot shortage.

Russian defense spending is much higher than their spending described in US dollars would indicate. Purchasing power parity is a concept that should be used given that Russian personnel costs are much cheaper and because Russians are buying equipment from Russian companies and not for the most part on the world market (not since 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine--remember that France cancelled the sale of Mistral amphibious warfare ships to Russia). This is true, but Russia's military and defense industry are still in trouble.

The American electrical grid is still vulnerable to destruction from natural causes or enemy EMP attack. I don't have a lot to add to this other than to say that this is bad and has been a longstanding vulnerability. We need a resilient electrical grid with stockpiled key components that take a long time to manufacture to repair any damage that is done.

Russia's Mig-31 air defense interceptor finally has a new missile for that small fleet of planes. Russia is a vast place to defend from aerial attack.

Via Instapundit, at least they aren't presented after the puppet show.  Which is a real morale builder. Yes, Spinal Tap reference.

Jesus Effing Christ, is it truly possible to make every effing thing about Trump?

Bloody heck, 41 dead in a Russian plane accident. My sympathies to the Russians.

I Have No Doubt Russia Would Like a Tripartite Pact

Could there be a nuclear arms treaty limiting the weapons of America, Russia, and China?

U.S. President Donald Trump said he and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed on Friday the possibility of a new accord limiting nuclear arms that could eventually include China in what would be a major deal between the globe's top three atomic powers.

I suspect Putin would be thrilled to have America and China join Russia in reducing nuclear arsenals.

I say that because America and China can afford nukes while Russia is having problems with that. Given the poor state of Russia's military I don't know why amidst that wreckage we assume Russia's nuclear arsenal is an island of working technology and skilled maintenance.

At this point it is almost a matter of professional courtesy to the Russians based on their Cold War threat to not bring up that issue. Russia is simply not a superpower now.

Of course, even a low rate of availability would provide Russia with a devastating nuclear strike capability. So we can hardly assume availability is low.

But if Russia could safely reduce the number of nuclear missiles they could better afford to keep the remainder in a state of readiness, no? And with America and China reducing the number of presumably better maintained missiles, Russia gains ground on both.

And frees up money to improve their ability to defend their long land border--especially in the east facing China.

And if there is verification that is robust, I'm perfectly happy with smaller nuclear arsenals.

UPDATE: China is not interested:

China on Monday dismissed a suggestion that it would talk with the United States and Russia about a new accord limiting nuclear arms, saying it would not take part in any trilateral nuclear disarmament negotiations.

I'm not sure why China wouldn't want to have such an agreement if it balances the three arsenals through reductions in American and Russian nuclear forces, saving China money to expand their arsenal--which they are doing.

Perhaps China refuses because it does not want to set a precedent that might pressure China to agree to give up its advantage over America in land-based intermediate range missiles in a new INF treaty expanded to include Russia.

UPDATE: More on why China is not interested in limiting their theater-range missiles.

Which green lights our deployment of such missiles in INDOPACOM, of course. Hey, we tried, right?

I Provoke Therefore I Am

The attempt by Guaido to get Maduro to go into exile failed as promised Venezuelan military support fizzled, allegedly with Russian prodding for Maduro to stay and fight. The situation is as follows:

The acute standoff between the opposition-controlled National Assembly and the Maduro regime has continued since January 2019. On one hand, Guaidó has been recognized as interim president by the United States, most Latin American countries, the European Union and a large portion of the Venezuelan populace. On the other, Maduro is supported by Russia, China, Cuba, Turkey, Iran, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Mexico, and by left-wing Chavista activists in Venezuela (supporters of the left-wing political ideology of Chavism, based on the ideas, programs and governing style of former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s predecessor). The severe political, economic and social crisis in Venezuela has greatly diminished the popular appeal of Chavism, but the military and security forces have remained loyal to the Maduro regime. The attempt to remove Maduro on April 30 failed as rebel military personnel did not attract much active support within the ranks. Clashes between pro-Guaidó protesters and security forces ensued, and at least one protester was killed in the streets of Caracas. Nevertheless, the regime survived, and Maduro boasted about crushing the attempted coup. The pro-Kremlin media in Moscow also cheered the outcome.

Do read it all.

The Russians are just being odd:

The crisis in Venezuela has been thrust to the top of a list of long-simmering spats between the United States and Russia, with both sides entrenched in diametrically opposed positions from which they are unwilling to retreat.

Is Putin's action in Venezuela reflexive based on his bizarre determination to be America's enemy?

A former SOUTHCOM commander says the situation still is at a "tipping point:"

As Tuesday, April 30, dawned, the U.S. administration believed the tide was finally turning against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. But by the end of the day, it was clear that an elaborate attempt by U.S.-backed opposition leader Juan Guaidó to seize power had failed miserably, leaving U.S. officials scrambling to save face.

But don’t count Guaidó out quite yet, according to retired U.S. Navy Adm. James Stavridis, who led U.S. Southern Command from 2006 to 2009. Stavridis said the failed uprising was merely a setback in the broader attempt at regime change in Venezuela, where a deepening humanitarian crisis has forced more than 3 million people to flee the country.

I hope so. Although if it isn't, bolstering the morale of opponents is a good thing until it does reach a tipping point.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

Iran Suffers Another Defeat

Iranian propaganda ultimately failed to de-fang one element of the war effort against Iran:

The Senate on Thursday failed to override President Trump’s veto of legislation ending U.S. support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen.

Senators voted 53-45 on the attempt to override Trump’s veto, falling short of the 67 votes needed to be successful.

The resolution, which initially passed the Senate in March, requires Trump to withdraw any troops in or affecting Yemen within 30 days unless they are fighting al Qaeda.

Trump vetoed the measure in April — marking the second veto of his administration and his second veto in roughly a month.

The Congressional vote to stop America from resisting Iran in Yemen was a travesty.

But the Democrats in Congress will continue to carry water for mullah-run Iran:

Congressional Democrats are looking to the power of the purse to end US participation in the war in Yemen after President Donald Trump successfully blocked their efforts to make it illegal.

So unless the new line of attack works, Iran will continue to slowly lose their effort to outflank and distract Saudi Arabia and to gain an outpost on the Red Sea shipping lanes.

Eyes Wide Shut in Moscow

Is Russia sleepwalking into China's dominance? I don't think so. Russia has a plan. It isn't working. But the Russians are surely aware of the threat from China.

Russian and Chinese interests conflict in many important areas. Is it true that Russia is ignoring its interests by loudly proclaiming friendship with China?

Despite these numerous threats, why is Russia still choosing a close alliance with China in various areas? To start with, Russia believes it does not have much of a choice; Russia is a fraction of China’s size economically, and its population is just one tenth of China’s. In military terms, comparing active personnel and military equipment, Russia is not as far behind.

Nevertheless, Russia can ill afford a military confrontation with China along its long land border, given that its military budget is only one third that of China’s. Russia also knows that China could scale up its military rather quickly if needed both in term of men and equipment because of its economic resources.

The author sees Putin running a short-run survival strategy while China's Xi has a long run view. And that Russia will wake up at some point to the threat.

One, you know my view on China's so-called long-range thinking superiority.

And two, Russia is certainly focused on the short run gap in power between Russia and China in light of the Chinese potential to threaten Russia's Far East. In my view, Russia is appeasing China in the hope they can rebuild their military without provoking China; and that Russian hostility toward NATO is possibly designed to conceal that Russian appeasement of a more powerful China.

Given the bad and declining state of Russia's defense industry, Russia clearly didn't buy enough time to be capable of dealing with China with that treaty muting Chinese territorial claims on Russia that expires in 2021.

What price will China demand to renew it? Will China compel Russia's "turn to the East" policy to include accepting Chinese aid and trade that simply allows China to penetrate Russia's Far East and gain a dominant position there? Although that author thinks the Chinese military threat is minor and that China benefits Russia. I'm not in that camp. Although if that author is correct, Russia has more opportunity to break with China, right?

Will Russia at some point realize that they risk a two-front war with their pointless confrontation with NATO that lacks the ability and interest in attacking Russia? Will Russia realize that having European Russia as a secure rear area is the smart thing to have with a rising China in their east?

And without such a peace with NATO, even Russia's Mini-Me firewall Putin that has ordered [I noticed this link was dead by chance and found a good link] to mimic China's Great Fire Wall can't forever hide the fact that Putin is effing things up royally.

But if Russia could get America and China to fight a major war, that's a bit of salvation for Russia in the correlation of forces with both of us, no? But barring that, Russia needs friendship with America.

China must be amazed at how well the false charges of Trump-Russian collusion serve to keep Russia from making peace with NATO. I won't indulge in fantasies that China engineered this given that Russia was just being Russia in that 2016 interference.

The Value of Russia as an American Friend is Marginal--for America

Russia needs peace with NATO more than America needs peace with Russia.

Russian-Chinese cooperation is overstated given long-term friction points:

Beijing and Moscow share one very big objective: resist U.S. dominance. Washington expanded NATO up to Russia’s borders; America’s navy patrols the Asia-Pacific and treats those waters as an American lake.

Sure. That basic point about the lack of depth in Chinese-Russian cooperation is right. But I can't let that "American lake" comment stand.

America in fact treats those Pacific international waters as international waters and not American territorial waters as Peking claims. America does not claim those waters. America is not to blame for tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.

But I digress from Russia and NATO.

I also can't let stand this major reason put forth for Russian hostility to America: "Washington expanded NATO up to Russia’s borders[.]"

One, NATO bordered the USSR via Norway and Turkey before the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the USSR itself. So NATO bordering "Russia" isn't new. And this is not even counting the sea border between Russia's Far East and Alaska.

And two, the USSR's best army and air force units bordered NATO at the Elbe River in Russian-controlled East Germany. In what practical matter was that different than today's Russia "bordering NATO." Is it really different because Russian-controlled vassal states hosted Russian forces that bordered NATO? The difference between then and now is that Russia is weaker and further east than the USSR. I'm happy about that. It did not cause recent Russian hostility to NATO.

Also, "Europe alone is able to constrain Moscow" is vaguely accurate. But the vagueness is that "constrain" part. That does not mean preventing Russia from conquering some of Europe in the east.

Yes, if Russia's military pushed west, Europe alone could eventually stop Russia. Maybe at the Vistula River, maybe at the Oder River, or maybe at the Elbe River. Or maybe Russia will just conquer former European parts of the USSR. Is it really acceptable that Russia can conquer free people in a continent of vital importance to American security and prosperity, and we don't care?

The basic idea by the author that Russia should be a friend of NATO in order to focus on China is correct. I've said that for a long time, arguing European Russia could be a secure rear area so Russia can focus on holding their Far East.

But the author's idea that America should throw Ukraine under the bus to get Russian cooperation makes no sense. As the author says, worse come to worst, Europe alone can "constrain" Russia in Europe and limit the damage Russia can inflict in Europe if America goes to war with China, even if all of our power has to be focused on China.

Just what European help could we expect against China if we throw Ukraine under the bus? I'd say approximately zero, with rounding.

Really, Russia (and European NATO states, of course) and not America has something to gain from peace between Russia and NATO. The question should be what Russia can give to NATO to get peace so Russia can deter China from invading and liberating portions of the Far East that Russia took from China in the 19th century.

Snatching Victory from the Jaws of Defeat

Iran hopes Democrats will save them from the Trump administration's decisions to walk away from the awful Iran deal and treat Iran's mullah regime like the enemy it is.

Don't call it collusion between Democrats and Iran's mullahs, just call it an expectation in Iran of future flexibility in Washington, D.C.:

Five of the Democratic presidential hopefuls, including Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris, say that if elected they would revive the JCPOA—the Obama administration’s gravely flawed nuclear deal with Iran that gave Iran a nuclear sunset clause, allowed it to keep developing ballistic missiles and centrifuges, concocted a ridiculously inadequate inspection regime, and freed up billions of dollars for Iran’s subversion and terror. Another declared candidate, Joe Biden, has harshly criticized President Trump for leaving the deal.

The the awful 2015 Iran nuclear deal--which isn't even legally binding--pretends Iran didn't have a nuclear program--which they still have--and shields Iran from military attacks while they are pursuing nukes until the deal expires and removes the basis for international scrutiny of Iran's nuclear programs.

As I observed in a recent data dump:

The fact that Iran still hasn't abandoned the Iran nuclear deal despite Iranian complaints that America is essentially waging economic warfare on them speaks to how badly tilted the deal is to Iran, no?

So of course Iran likes the deal. And Iran would love to get Democrats in the White House who will listen to John Kerry, the worst secretary of state in living memory, and treat Iran like the future partner he knows the mullah-run country can be.

UPDATE: Another reason the mullahs pray for Democrats:

The U.S. Treasury Department is now weighing targeted sanctions that would curb the flow of less-visible [than existing oil sale sanctions] sources of the U.S.-denominated currency that Iran needs to pay for imports of basic goods—and to shore up its own flagging currency, U.S. officials said.

Without money, Iran can't make nearly as much trouble.

Perhaps Taking a Break Will Restore the Relationship

I've noted that while Turkey and Russia have a long history of warfare that argues against an enduring alliance, in the short term common interests combined with the lack of common land borders can push them together to the West's detriment. How might that Russian-Turkish entente form?

If Turkey goes through with the purchase of Russia's S-400, a sequence of events that began with Putin's strong support for Erdogan after the July 2016 coup attempt/purge and which leads to American sanctions on Turkey could result in a major redirection of Turkey's foreign policy:

Such punitive measures would have drastic consequences: They would seal the divorce of Ankara and Washington, possibly even precipitating Turkey's formal exit from NATO. Unless concessions are forthcoming from the US to induce Turkey to reciprocate by finding a face-saving way out of installing the S-400 system, such as sending it to Azerbaijan, a strategic divorce may not be averted. Although Ankara will seek to salvage its cooperation with European partners, Turkey will be on the path to joining a post-American alliance architecture.

The path to the Russian-Turkish entente, if it occurs, is longer than either the coup or the Trump presidency, and dates back to Erdogan's rise to power in 2003. Indeed, the failure of the Turkish parliament to approve the deployment of America's 4th Infantry Division--our top of the line digital division at the time--to open a major front against Saddam in the Iraq War was a canary in the coal mine moment.

I'm not sure what we can do to keep Turkey under Erdogan in NATO and away from Russia. But letting Turkey get the F-35 is not worth the risk to keep Turkey firmly in NATO.

I'd fudge the Turkish S-400 purchase if we cut it off from NATO's integrated air defenses and let it be a stand-alone system away from the potential main fronts with Russia. Russia is weak enough that if Turkish air defense are an island apart from the rest of NATO it won't harm NATO defenses. Really, in case of war with NATO Russian forces in the Mediterranean Sea will lead a short but exciting life.

I'd also scale back sensitive data and information sharing while looking for alternatives to NATO facilities in Turkey. And for God's sake, we no longer have nuclear warheads stored at Incirlik air base, right?

And if Turkey does withdraw from NATO I'd make sure the Turks know that NATO would be eager for Turkey to return to the alliance as an actual ally one day. Because in the long run, Russia is not Turkey's friend even if Russia under Putin is Erdogan's friend.

UPDATE: Turkey will pay a price for breaking with NATO:

At this point, the U.S. should make clear to Turkey the costs of its strategic shift to Russia: Should Ankara decide to change course, it could gain access to a diverse set of energy suppliers, coupled with a cooperative defense relationship with the U.S. and its NATO allies. Should it continue on its current path, however, Ankara will become overly reliant on Russia in both the energy and defense sectors — turning Turkey increasingly into a client state of Moscow.

But the pain won't be felt by Erdogan or his supporters. And having a fellow dictator as his ally may seem like a good policy when Russia is unable to really get at Turkey the way Russia did for centuries when Russia and Turkey shared borders in the Balkans and in the Caucasus.

But certainly we should make our benefits clear even after Turkey ditches the West.

UPDATE: Be my guest!

The head of Russia's top state-run industrial conglomerate Rostec has now stated it is ready to cooperate with Turkey on the export and production of their Su-57 advanced fighter jet to fill the hole left by the F-35.

India bailed on the flailing Su-57 project which is only a frontal stealth plane--if it can be made to work and get into production.

I say we should congratulate Turkey on having an alternative to the F-35 and wish them all the best; and promise our support to integrate the Russian plane into Turkey's American-built combat aircraft inventory.

Russia is desperate to create the illusion that the Su-57 hangar queen is a real thing.

But Being Socialist Means You Care!

Maduro still holds power in the crumbling ruins of Venezuela, and the opposition wants him to step down from his illegally held post:

Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó took to the streets with a small contingent of heavily armed troops early Tuesday in a bold and risky attempt to lead a military uprising and oust socialist leader Nicolas Maduro. ...

he dramatic events began early Tuesday when Guaidó, flanked by a few dozen national guardsmen and some armored vehicles, released a three-minute video filmed near a Caracas air base in which he called on civilians and others in the armed forces to join a final push to topple Maduro.

In a surprise, standing alongside him was Leopoldo Lopez, his political mentor and the nation's most-prominent opposition activist, who has largely been unseen since he was detained in 2014 for leading anti-government protests. Lopez said he had been released from house arrest by security forces adhering to an order from Guaido.

This is not a coup. Maduro holds power illegally. Guaido is the lawful interim president authorized to hold office until Venezuela holds free elections and chooses a president.

It should always have been obvious that socialism would lead to economic collapse and political repression--despite the loud applause from Hollywood leftists when the Venezuelan socialists were still operating on the banked success of pre-socialist progress.

Will enough of the Venezuelan military give the opposition a chance against the Cuban- and Russian-backed Maduro?

The climb up from the wreckage of socialism-destroyed Venezuela will be long and difficult. Venezuela will need regional and global help.

UPDATE: May Day is an appropriate day to remember communism's massive body count and to reinforce our hatred for that vile system of impoverishment and tyranny. And remember, socialism is just a stage to reach true communism--which the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics never quite reached.

UPDATE: More. Venezuelans are suffering. Learn from that. Can we not--finally--learn the lesson that socialism kills before we have to suffer to learn the lesson?

UPDATE: Did Russia persuade Maduro to stay put instead of seeking exile? Effing Russians.

Although I seriously doubt we are planning to militarily intervene. Unless it is in support of a Brazilian-led intervention backed by the Organization of American States.

UPDATE: So Guaido was going for broke with our help and it didn't work?

Or did Guaido's move advance the cause?

I think it was a mistake for our government to credit Russia with saving Maduro on the brink of defeat. This just bolsters Putin's reputation as a dictator salvation team. Who you gonna call? Revolt Busters.

UPDATE: So far our military isn't preparing for actual intervention:

The U.S. military is focused on gathering intelligence in Venezuela, the military’s top general said Wednesday, with the crisis in the country appearing to reach a critical stage.

I would be willing to help Brazil and Colombia, but would not lead an intervention. At most we could prevent Cuba from sending personnel and supplies to Maduro.

UPDATE: Letting "Venezuela" decide its own destiny is fine in the abstract. But at the moment "Venezuela" effectively means thug ruler Maduro and his Russian and Cuban backers.

Always check the "definitions section" I always say.

UPDATE: Things are still simmering:

Venezuelan opposition politician Leopoldo Lopez, evading arrest in a Spanish diplomatic residence, on Thursday disclosed he met with senior military officials before a failed uprising against President Nicolas Maduro this week.

Suggesting coordination continues with armed forces figures in the campaign to oust Maduro, Lopez said more "military movements" were on the way.

But I have no idea what ingredients are being added to the pot.

UPDATE: About that socialism that is wrecking Venezuela:

If the argument for socialism is that it’s a noble theory that delivers economic and social equality on paper, but that every single time it gets tried, the leaders succumb to temptation and start accumulating wealth for themselves and stifling dissent and building a secret police and gulags . . . then as a theory, it’s worthless. It would work when it’s run by human beings who can resist the temptation to take what they want through force, and those humans don’t exist.

Venezuela used to be cited by the left to prove caring socialism worked. Now the left denies Venezuela is actually socialist.

Yeah, nobody claims "real" Nazism hasn't been tried yet.

Window of Vulnerability

India is falling behind China in economic and military clout. But the long run will look better.

China is India's major foe now, eclipsing Pakistan. Pakistan is much smaller and so designing a military to cope with them wasn't a strain. China is another matter:

Modi’s ruling party is making his record on national security a key part of its campaign in an election that will conclude on May 23, with boasts of airstrikes against Pakistan and more than 80 trips abroad to cement India’s reputation as a rising economic power. His government refused to attend Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road infrastructure forum that kicked off Friday.

Yet for all that, India has only fallen further behind China over the past five years. Beijing has continued to outspend India on defense, implemented sweeping reforms in its military and diplomatic structures, and built strategic infrastructure in India’s backyard -- not to mention providing arch-rival Pakistan with defense technology.

In the long run, the head of the National Security College at the Australian National University thinks that India's economy will get closer to China's and provide India with the world's third largest defense budget.

The factors that will help America against China's rise will help India, too.

Friendship with America, Taiwan, Japan, Australia, and Vietnam in particular will help bridge the gap with China. Russia would be a big prize and ending the pointless hostility of Pakistan would be a big deal, too.

And American-Indian friendship helps us, too, of course, by compelling China to focus more resources inland rather than out to see where our allies on the western Pacific rim lie.

UPDATE: The latest edition of the Pentagon's report on Chinese military power notes a grave danger to India:

During this period [from 2020 to 2035], China sees itself as growing its economic and technological strength “by leaps and bounds,” strengthening rule of law, growing the middle class, and improving living standards while addressing income disparity. [emphasis added]

Corruption is a major factor impeding India's ability to compete with China.

[Note that I removed an update that addressed the China-Philippines Pagasa Island dispute. I'm not sure why I added that here.]

If It Quacks Like a Duck

China uses its coast guard and a naval militia to advance state conquests without the navy participating in the belief that forces below the level of the navy means nobody will resist. No more.

Well this is all sorts of interesting in a butt-clenching sort of way:

The head of the U.S. Navy warned China that its coast guard and maritime militia will be treated in the same way as the nation’s navy in the South China Sea, the Financial Times reported, citing an interview.

China is increasingly relying on non-naval ships to assert its claims in the region, blurring the line between its military and coast guard, which has complicated U.S. efforts in the past few years, according to the report. China considers at least 80 percent of the South China Sea to be its sovereign territory, a claim disputed by other regional powers.

If the Chinese try to use their naval militia to ram our foul the propellers of our warships engaged in freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait, we won't rule out more forceful means of repelling them, I assume.

UPDATE: About that naval militia masquerading as fishing boats:

All the evidence is that the Chinese ships are elements of the People’s Liberation Army’s Maritime Militia, which studies by the United States Naval War College estimate to include well over 300 vessels and close to 4,000 personnel, though that is probably a major underestimation.

These units are made up of civilian fishermen who receive regular military training and pay while they are under the command of the navy. Their ships are usually not armed, though some are.

However, the ships have reinforced bows to enable them to ram other ships, and are equipped with high-powered water hoses, which are an effective weapon against the crews of other small ships. Most also have sophisticated communications equipment both for espionage operations, and so they can be easily marshaled and deployed while under military command.

Better-armed coast guards need to start arresting those crews and charging them as pirates before they back off.

UPDATE: From the recent press conference on the new annual report on Chinese military capabilities:

We -- we're less interested in the color of the hull than the activity and the actions. So what we're most interested in is China behaving in a manner that's respectful of international law and norms, and behaving in a manner that is not destabilizing and is more constructive. So we're less interested -- again, if its coast guard and maritime militia or classic gray-hulled navy, if the design is to infringe upon the sovereignty of another country, to provoke -- to -- in -- in the -- with the objective of creating some sort of tension that results in a favorable outcome for them, any of that is -- is more concerning than the color of the hull.

China wants the effects of naval power without using formal naval power. We now dismiss the formal distinction between the forms of Chinese naval power.