Friday, April 26, 2019

So About That Nonexistent Iranian Nuclear Program

This did not make the news and I'm just catching up:

In western Syria (Hama province) Israel launched another airstrike, from Lebanese airspace, on Iranian guided missile facilities. This site is rumored to be where Iran is carrying out nuclear weapons research. Foreign technical experts have been seen at the site, including some North Koreans and “Russian speakers.” Several people were killed, including two Iranians, and possibly other foreigners. Numerous structures were destroyed. [emphasis added

I did not hear one word about that aspect of the attack.

Now, the rumor could be wrong. But it fits with my longstanding worry that looking for Iranian nuclear weapons programs in Iran misses potential nuclear work:

Are important parts of Iran's nuclear effort in other countries such as North Korea and Syria? And what of Venezuela, which under Hugo Chavez has become best buddies with Ahmadinejad's Iran?

We could hit Iran, believe we've bought ourselves years of time, and then wake up one morning not long after to see a smiling mullah explain that the nuclear detonation in country X was an Iranian bomb being tested. And that Iran has ten more of the same design already.

Or we could strike a deal with Iran and believe we bought 15 years of time (and even if Iran doesn't cheat, they'd be secure to be better able to break out of the expired deal to rapidly deploy nuclear missiles).

Unless you think Iran really doesn't want nuclear weapons, you have to consider that Iran will see the 2015 deal as a shield against attacks while looking for ways around the terms that in theory might slow them down.

And under the terms of the awful 2015 Iran nuclear deal,--which isn't even legally binding, and remember Iran didn't even admit that they had a nuclear weapons program under the terms of the deal--the IAEA can only inspect limited numbers of locations in Iran.

So we don't actually know what Iran is doing inside Iran, let alone what Iran is doing outside of Iran.