Sunday, April 14, 2019

Weekend Data Dump

The Congo (former Zaire) election was rigged--but what do you do when we need peace and quiet to monitor the Ebola epidemic in the east and have a chance of containing and suppressing it?

And in the meantime, the Chinese naval threat to India grows.

It is easy to forget the series of efforts to reject the results of the 2016 presidential election. The efforts continue, of course. Finding out if laws were broken in some of them seems justified if we hope rule of law is robust in America. And yeah, there was a time when I at least respected the left's defense of civil liberties even when it protected odious people. Now that source of respect is long gone.

Romania will support the French-led mission in Mali with helicopter support.

One of the problems with the vast expansion of federal crimes--to the point where the expression "don't make a federal case out of this" makes little sense--is that our protection against double jeopardy are effectively nearly nullified. Why don't 95% of Americans think this is a problem?

I won't disagree with Carafano's 5 things we should do to reinforce America's power in the Indo-Pacific. But given that I actually spoke with him a couple decades ago when he oversaw the publication of an article in JFQ, I am disappointed that he didn't mention a bigger role for the Army as I advocated in Military Review not too long ago. To be fair, perhaps that would have been the sixth thing to do, which the Army seems to be taking initial steps to enable. Also, I still really want the combatant command responsible for our forces in the vast region to be called PAINCOM.

Wait. Even if you assume the "reports" accurately convey the words as an order, isn't the bottom line that border officers successfully refused to obey an illegal order? Worst. dictator. ever. eh?

Uh oh, the Japanese lost one of their F-35As when it was flying near northern Japan. Finding out why it crashed is important. The Chinese are using the crash to try and discourage potential enemies from buying the plane! And there are rumors that China and Russia would love to get some of the wreckage. I guess they can't count on looking at an intact Turkish plane now. Regardless, we and the Japanese should retrieve the wreckage no matter how deep in the water it is.

Filipino protesters at the Chinese embassy marched against China's efforts to isolate and capture Thito (Pag-asa) Island.

I don't think that an informal network of white supremacists is much of a terrorist threat, especially compared to the jihadi threat. And the data supports a little perspective on this latest trend in the media, which to me sounds like the SOP of avoiding dealing with one threat by focusing on another threat we should--they say--be dealing with. In that playbook, nobody will ever actually deal with white nationalist terrorists--the point is simply to disable the fight to stop jihadi terrorists. But if the left wants to go with this, why not nip it in the bud. I'm fine with adding that new threat to the target list of terrorists we should kill. Face it, if white supremacist terrorists were really a threat, the left would spend a lot of time asking "why do they hate us?" and finding plenty of reasons in answer.

WTF?

Does Netanyahu's election win mean that an Israeli offensive into Lebanon to tear up Hezbollah is on?

Screw the experts who have planned to make housing unaffordable. Tip to Instapundit.

Of course, "neutral, impartial and independent" humanitarian aid to Venezuela effectively helps support the thug socialist ruler who made a relatively prosperous country desperate for humanitarian aid.

Doing the job Western democracies won't do?

The US is maneuvering at the UN to force China to confront the contradiction between their hard suppression of Moslems within China while supporting Islamic terrorists backed by China's friend Pakistan. Will China go to the wall to defend JeM?

Is Hiftar's advance really threatening Libya with a new civil war? Or is Hiftar's advance on Tripoli--which isn't working as fast as hoped--threatening to unify Libya, end the civil war fragmentation since the 2011 Arab Spring uprising and NATO intervention to kill Khadaffi, gain control of Libya's ports so migrants don't flow north to Europe, ramp up oil exports, and suppress jihadis? Maybe Hiftar really is a bad development, but I'm not seeing it.

Assange. Huh. I hope we nail that Russian tool Assange. I don't believe Wikileaks is a freedom of speech issue. He did damage. I was always against Assange--even when he revealed information bad about Democrats. My issue at the time was that the media wouldn't have cared one bit about the source if the bad information had been about Republicans.

A suicide bombing in Syria in the Idlib region where jihadis still hold ground. Is this a sign of the group preparing to go full insurgent/terrorist? I don't hear of such attacks in government controlled areas. Is that because Assad has a good grip on that territory or lack of reporting?

Fake honors.  Ponder that this deeply sourced flawed, relentlessly reported slanted coverage was considered the best of journalism for the year. Which to be fair, might still be true.

I don't know why I've never seen any commentary on the 1799 Logan Act against acting as if you are a representative of the US government as almost certainly applying to an age when a man could surface in Europe and claim to be a representative of the American government with no means of checking the claim except for waiting for an inquiry to cross the Atlantic and return. Is it any wonder it has no teeth now, even if you don't want to appreciate that it cannot apply to incoming administration staff gaining familiarity with their soon-to-be counterparts? If the new not-yet government employees don't do that the transition period is rather wasted, no?

A long term in prison seems appropriate, if convicted.

An overview of North Korea. Will North Korea's government collapse or face unrest before it can get nukes to (the rulers believe) ease the dire economic situation?

Special operations will see less of their time fighting terrorists directly--despite it remaining a priority--and more time preparing for great power competition, which includes both combat and the traditional work of advising and training allied ground forces to make them more effective. I wonder what this means for Army advise and assist brigades that were designed to take on that role from the special forces while the special forces had a higher tempo direct combat role against terrorists? Also, I assume part of the direct combat role in their revived role in conventional warfare includes acting as stay-behind forces in friendly countries invaded by enemy conventional forces.

The circumstances around India's overt retaliation for Pakistani terrorism in India have been cloudy. Apparently, India's GPS-guided glide bombs missed their targets in Pakistan because the weapons thought they were hitting coordinates at sea level. Oops.

Somebody in the Trump ecosystem is being charged with non-process crimes. I've needed a lawyer twice in my life and was happy with both of them. Avenatti gives all a bad image, unfortunately.

Worse. dictator. ever. Seriously, reining in administrative rules and its orbiting debris of guidelines and memos is important to maintain Congressional powers in the face of quasi-legislative actions from the executive. I worked on administrative rules issues at the state level. And while they really are necessary within strict limits and governed by adequate legislative oversight, they can get out of hand without those checks. So good for Trump in throttling that process rather than exploiting it with his pen and phone Twitter account. For sanity's sake the the Resistance at some point has to be a little embarrassed that their dark fantasies (nurtured in their insular Twitter world) of dictatorship have not one hint of reality, right? You simply have a political opponent. How banal, right? How deflating. You guys do know now that you were never plucky unarmed militia heroes fighting from the coffee shops and organic bakeries with your Twitter accounts against the forces of Russian darkness, don't you?

European armies are looking at unmanned ground vehicles to support infantry. Will they be armed rather than logistics support? If so, isn't this just a replay of the tankettes that didn't really work out?

Wait, What? So the editors who chose the headline think illegal immigrants are a "punishment" rather than an unmitigated uplifting joy? Huh. I did mention this idea of sending illegal immigrants to "sanctuary" cities. You'd think those cities would welcome as many as they can--if not for the benefits then out of their own superior compassion to keep them from being abused in some red-state hell hole. Apparently the citizens and legal residents of those sanctuary cities think there is a limit to how many they can accept. What a shocking discovery this must be to them. But until they admit that mass illegal immigration isn't the great benefit they claim it is, I say the government should unleash the flood of benefits on those sanctuary cities--good and hard. Of course, it probably isn't legal to do that. But then again Republicans could introduce a bill to make it legal to send illegal immigrants awaiting court dates to sanctuary cities and dare the Democrats who support unrestricted immigration to oppose the bill. Tip to Instapundit.

Thanks Google! (I'm catching up on unread email.)

That can't go on forever. So it won't.

Just ... stop.  Reality-based community, indeed. Good Lord people, of course "electronic surveillance" is "spying." The question is whether the spying was legal. Tips to Instapundit.

Egypt pulled out of MESA, the anti-Iranian regional alliance that includes America. That's not good. The Saudis are no doubt upset that their money led to this. Still, Egypt can be counted on to help keep the Red Sea secure from Iranian efforts to interdict that waterway. But perhaps it means Egypt won't be quite as supportive of an Israeli take down of Hezbollah as I once thought possible. Or maybe Egypt is just haggling over their price.

For those upset with Trump's Twitter practices (and I count myself conflicted over them), his usage mirrors the motivation for FDR's radio fireside chats that bypassed the then-traditional communications channels to the public that "[relied] on newspaper reporters and editors to convey their words to the public, leaving their original message open to editorial slant or misquoting. Live radio, by contrast, left no room for misquotation." Boy does that sound like a familiar and modern worry. And recall that Obama in his 2012 reelection campaign avoided traditional media to appear on YouTube shows and other entertainment venues that bypassed traditional media. I had nothing but disdain for that. But with time I'm thinking that Obama and Trump are both simply forging paths on new communications media that in their newness seem as undignified as radio surely did to many when FDR adopted it. [UPDATE: By chance I noted I'd already addressed the fireside chat precedent!]

Fail. I know I resented diversity training, as if I needed to undergo forced reeducation on a crash basis for my assumed sins.  For those on the left who think I protest too much, how would you like mandatory patriotism training? Well, from corporate perspectives it isn't a fail--it is nice lawsuit protection that can point to time and money spent in their defense. Tip to Instapundit.

Yeah, I remember where I was when "some people did something" on September 11, 2001. And bizarrely that was said by a Moslem refugee from jihadi-wracked Somalia who gained citizenship here and was elected to Congress, who was making a statement that Moslems have lost civil rights in America since the terrorist attack. I don't think Moslems anywhere have civil rights superior to what they enjoy in America. Say, how's this for victimizing Moslem women? Her outrage that her loyalties are questioned because of her 9/11 comment is pretty funny considering how she has repeatedly questioned the loyalty of Jewish Americans. Perhaps her wording was simply poor and means nothing more. I certainly don't assume her word choice means she supports the attack. But when questioned it would be nice to see a sign from her that of course she agrees it was a horrible act of terrorism. Instead she is indignant that her motives are questioned. And this response didn't help. Bush spoke at Ground Zero just three days after the attack when much was still unknown. And he went on to wage war against those people who attacked us. When, with so much more known today about our enemy, does Operation Enduring Freedom Omar begin? She doesn't deserve death threats; but she doesn't deserve to be a US representative. Nor does she deserve to don the mantle of victimhood to shield herself from criticism. But the district's voters--not me--decide if she should represent them.

The Afghan people--rightly--are concerned about peace talks with the dangerous Taliban.

Taiwan needs to follow the Israeli path to advanced weapons production.

Sectarian violence is not inevitable in the Middle East. Unstated was the need to kill the sectarian killers. Sealing the borders to keep them out does little good when they are born inside the border.

Attrition and its long peacetime tail.

America is not on a stable long-term fiscal path. But nobody really cares. If inflated dollars are used to pay off the national debt, the middle class will be destroyed. The poor have little to lose and will be taken care of while the wealthy have the ability to ride out that kind of inflationary storm. And of course, the effects of the national debt will make it harder to attain middle class status before the inflationary stage.

The long arm of Hezbollah's terror reach--in Paraguay. Which means Iran's terror reach extends to the western hemisphere, of course.

What the Hell is wrong with those people?

If, after the Mueller report, you still think Trump colluded with Russia, shouldn't it be damning of our FBI and CIA that they couldn't stop--or even just expose evidence of--such an awful plot against America?

Ah, the Navy does still plan to base for Littoral Combat Ships in Singapore. I hadn't heard anything in quite a while about this.  It is behind schedule.

Our society has forgotten just how evil socialism and communism are (remember, the Soviets were "building communism" via their socialist dictatorship).  A red star or hammer and sickle should be shunned as much as a swastika.

I see Northwestern Mutual memory-holed their awful pool commercial that featured a whiny daughter demanding a ride from her sweating dad mowing the lawn. Somehow she inspired him to build a pool to make her happy. Let me tell you, that behavior would have had the opposite effect on me and the commercial really pissed me off. Well, in Soviet tradition the company issued a new commercial that shows the daughter as just a calm, pleasant young lass making a request. I guess the company discovered how bad that ad was. Of course, at least the original ad had some internal logic to it: awful daughter can be bribed into better behavior with a pool--and NWM can help you pay for it! The new ad makes little sense motivation-wise. But I guess getting the bad taste of the original out of viewers' mouths was worth the effort. The new ad should die and be forgotten after memory-holing the original. Funny I could not find either ad on YouTube.

We are improving cyber-war focus but more needs to be done. Supply chain security is one area. Honestly, that is the aspect of the Hillary Clinton-approved uranium deal with Russia that worried me--not putting 20% of our uranium supply under Russian corporate rule. What could Russia do with the inside knowledge of that vital supply chain?

If there is a war I don't worry that Russian strike assets in the eastern Mediterranean Sea would last long against NATO forces. But if they are used to damage the Suez Canal they'd serve their purpose.

Operating through the state-centric assumptions of the UN by funneling aid through a central authority in Somalia will only allow an oil-for-food scandal situation that developed in Iraq. There is no central government in Somalia and pretending there is will only waste money and enrich criminals. We know better than to give aid to North Korea and count on them spreading the aid out to where needed rather than using it as a means to remain in power. The lessen should be a general one.

We really need to gain the initiative in Afghanistan and start taking and holding territory from the Taliban, while killing the enemy in larger numbers. If the Taliban are able and willing to launch a spring offensive--even if it will fail to live up to the name just as past efforts have failed to live up to the name--the Taliban clearly aren't feeling enough pain. Remember, revolutionary Iran launched numerous "final offensives" to try to defeat Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War. Eventually the Iraqis defeated the Iranian attacks enough while inflicting large losses on the Iranians to the point that Iranian jihadi morale broke. So you can break the morale of jihadi fanatics. We need to do that rather than simply continue the Obama policy of trying not to lose.

The Army is getting reacquainted with Palau after nearly four decades away. Good. We need more baskets for our eggs in INDOPACOM.

I do believe I mentioned the Ebola problem in Congo (former Zaire) recently. Yeah, it's a problem.

Uh oh, the beatings will continue in China's rural and ethnic minority regions until morale improves. Times are different so I don't actually expect a new Cultural Revolution. But it says a lot that the party wants to embark on what they may regard as a kinder and gentler version of it.

Venezuela's inept socialist thug rulers can't even supply clean water.

Casualty evacuation and treatment in high intensity warfare against an enemy with precision anti-aircraft and ground attack weapons plus persistent battlefield surveillance assets will be a severe challenge.

Washington, D.C. is crawling with foreign lobbyists. Maybe states from the interior should hire lobbyists to influence Congress and the executive if our actual Congressional delegation isn't up to the job of countering that kind of influence. Or we could simply repeal the 17th amendment and restore senators as the representatives of the states the way they used to be.

Sending THAAD to eastern Europe is just part of improvements to ballistic missile defense in the region.

Hahahahahaha!!! Sure, the plastic grocery bag ban is worthless (how is that not obvious by now?)--and the cloth bag alternative is way worse than I imagined--but how do you put a price tag on feeling superior because you support it? Tip to Instapundit.

Man, I've had some virus/allergy hanging on for a month now, just dragging me down. It finally seems to be fading but won't quite go away. Yeah, yeah, I know--poor little bunny.

Really, the U.S., Filipino and Australian Balikatan military exercise could apply to any potential invader of Filipino territory, right?

A space war could create a lot of orbital debris. Would it make near-Earth space useless?

I assume our next infantry fighting vehicle will have this 50mm chain gun as its main armament.

I am amused that Speaker Pelosi has led the Democratic charge that it is absurd that Barr made a definitive legal conclusion that there was no Trump-Russian collusion in the 2016 election after having the report for just two days. One, that description does not fully include how the Mueller investigation communicated with Barr over the report's findings. And two, haven't Pelosi and the Democrats made a definitive legal conclusion about the report for about two years before it was completed?

Iraqi forces continue to kill ISIL terrorists. How people fail to recognize we won the Iraq War is beyond me.