Objective: Belarus

I don't think Russia can afford to embark on another adventure while they are still defending their win in Syria and when they are still slogging along in Ukraine's Donbas. But Belarus to me is the obvious next target if reversing the collapse of the USSR is Putin's goal.

Yes:

Last summer, in a small town overlooking the Russian border, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko made a stark and pointed pronouncement. “If we don’t survive these years—if we fail,” he said, “it means we will have to become part of some other state, or they will simply wipe their feet on us. God forbid they unleash another war, like in Ukraine.”

Lukashenko was referring to Russia.

I do believe I mentioned that speech.

Just from a geographic view, Belarus is a sword and shield for Russia as much as Poland is a sword and shield for NATO. Although obviously I think NATO worries are more grounded in reality than Russian worries.

Belarus truly may be the most important territory in Europe today.

UPDATE: Luckily, Russia is still fighting in the Donbas and in Syria, and has to face China too. And the quality of their military manpower is eroding dramatically.

So Russia would need to be criminally stupid to make a grab for Belarus any time soon.

Which doesn't mean Russia won't make a grab for Belarus before the Russians are ready.