Friday, April 19, 2019

It isn't Pretty But it is a Gathering Victory

Iran and their Shia Houthi allies are even willing to allow humanitarian aid to Yemen's people if it buys time to reverse their losing war effort.

Relying on our media, you'd think the humanitarian crisis was Saudi Arabia's fault. But no:

The Shia rebels now say they will finally implement the December peace deal that was supposed to reopen the Red Sea port of Hodeida, which is essential for delivering emergency food and other aid to northern Yemen. Iran had persuaded the Shia rebels to stall but that advice lost its appeal as the rebel situation worsened everywhere, not just at Hodeida. Iran had problems of its own at home and elsewhere and as not been able to help much.

While the rebels have stolen and stockpiled a lot of food and other aid their coalition continues to unravel and lack of aid coming through Hodeida is one reason.

The Saudis have started alternate supply routes for humanitarian aid. If the Houthis wreck Hodeida and burn supplies they will obviously be the bad guys even to the media and Congress which have fallen for Iranian propaganda hook, line, and sinker by demanding America abandon the Saudi-led coalition.

But the Saudis are slowly defeating the Houthi, inflicting a looming defeat on Iran, too (back to the Strategypage post):

The Shia rebels demonstrated that they have fewer and fewer options. The rebels have lost the ability to launch more ballistic missiles at key targets in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Apparently the rebels have few, if any, ballistic missiles left. Moreover the Saudis and UAE have been able to shoot down all of the missiles that were going to hit an important area (and not land in an unpopulated area, as many of the missiles have done). Another threat that the rebels pose, but will not admit openly, that they will try to destroy the port facilities and food storage sites before they leave the city. Recently the rebels decided that destroying Hodeida port facilities and related food storage sites was not a practical option. Damaging the port like that could reduce aid supplies to rebel held areas and it would obviously be the fault of the rebels. Food would be available from the government, bringing it in via Gulf of Oman ports. Finally the rebels need the forces concentrated around Hodeida elsewhere. The government and Arab coalition forces are advancing on several fronts and if the rebels don’t send reinforcements there will be major losses of territory.[emphasis added]

With a ceasefire the Houthi will attempt to move their troops out of Hodeida to the areas under pressure by their growing list of enemies.

And of course, al Qaeda and ISIL are trying to survive the fighting, providing America with plenty of reason to back the Saudis and hunt Sunni jihadis on our own. As of the beginning of the month, we've launched 8 UAV strikes this year on such targets.

So yeah, this is good:

President Donald Trump has vetoed a resolution to stop U.S. military assistance to the Saudi- and Emirati-led campaign in Yemen.

In issuing the veto, Trump said, "This resolution is an unnecessary, dangerous attempt to weaken my constitutional authorities."

And an attempt to hand Iran a victory, don't forget.