Sunday, April 21, 2019

Weekend Data Dump

Mali: at the intersection of no and where jihad and bad government. The French are holding the line there in this front in the war on terror. But the Mali government guarantees that the French are needed to hold the line.

I don't believe I've ever challenged the patriotism of Democrats. But if would help the Democrats who angrily deny that Republicans "own the American flag" if Democrats didn't react to our flag the way vampires react to sunlight and holy water. Tip to Instapundit.

Some of the reasons the body count among Palestinians in their ongoing weekly attacks on the Israeli border--not protests--isn't orders of magnitude higher.

The Navy isn't changing its rules of engagement for Iranian vessels in the Persian Gulf after the president designated the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organization (and after Iranian threats in response). Hopefully the rules of engagement already say we sink anything that gets too close. The designation is formal now.

China won't force the unification with Taiwan yet? Maybe. But there's that "when near, appear far" advice Sun Tsu gave. If China invades Taiwan before American, Japanese, and Taiwanese power regains lost ground as China has armed up, it will look like this, I judge.

Will our mission in Somalia really conclude in 7 years? I'm doubtful that we will ever be able to stop "mowing the grass" there to keep the jihadi level low enough. Not as long as we are chained to the notion that the UN member state  Somalia bears any relation to the situation on the ground. I'd recognize pieces of Somalia as states and let them decide how to gradually pick up territory they can actually control--or give it to the Ethiopians if they dare.

If China is making gains in the information war by exporting their model of a controlled Internet, we need to update our Voice of America/Radio Free Europe/Radio Free Asia model to get apps into operation that will allow people to poke through the Great Firewall to see information from the "wild" Internet.

The US (with Japan's equally focused help) is really working hard to get the wreckage of the Japanese F-35A that crashed. Best not to let the Russians or Chinese get their hands on it.

As long as Russia doesn't control Belarus, I would not put a full active duty American armored division in Poland. I'd like the ability to have a full division there quickly with prepositioned equipment, but the Russian threat to Poland is limited as long as Russia has to move through Lithuania and Belarus to reach it. And if we build up forces too much in Poland (as opposed to infrastructure to receive reinforcements quickly) we might provoke Russia to take over Belarus. Although Russia's armed forces continue to rot away, making that a risky operation. So Russia would have to be really foolish to risk a war with NATO. So what I'm saying is there is a chance.

I don't know what to make of this, but it is certainly more plausible to say that Russia wanted socialist Bernie Sanders who honeymooned in Russia as president in 2016 rather than Trump. Tip to Instapundit.

If a "grasp of reality" is required, we're all effed. Via Instapundit.

Russian use of irregulars and mercenaries (private military contractors) is really nothing new in Russian and Soviet history.

The Indian army is being forced to accept an inferior but indigenously developed 155mm howitzer rather than more of the M-777 that was developed by VSEL Armaments (okay that origin isn't in the post but I am currently drinking from the VSEL Armaments coffee mug touting the XM-777 and AS90 Braveheart self-propelled version). The British-designed M-777 is used by America and other NATO countries, and the Indian army wants more of them. Oh well. China continues to smile at India's dysfunctional weapons design and procurement bureaucracy. In the meantime India's aging and worn out artillery continues to age and wear out. Ah, what's the rush? It isn't like India faces enemies on their borders, eh?

To be fair, who could have seen that plan fueled by compassion going awry?

North Korea is working on nuclear facilities. I don't trust them. But I don't know if North Korea is successfully buying time or if our military hand has been stayed because North Korea has halted their progress short of long-range nuclear weapons sufficiently enough for us to wait them out.

The Navy's big-deck amphibious warfare ships can indeed be used as mini-carrier strike groups. But it only makes financial sense because the ships have a primary amphibious mission and can be used as a mini-strike carrier. It would make no financial sense to build small carriers for the naval aviation mission. Although I admit that precision and stealth make the mini-carriers far more useful than they would have been prior to the F-35/precision weapons combination.

Will China's loans to build Belt and Road Initiative projects just leave the host countries with physical assets and resentment toward China over the terms of the loans to build the infrastructure; while leaving China with bad debts that can't be collected but with trade routes through those resentful countries that can't be bullied out of fear of losing those trade routes?

Now that's privilege.

I miss the days when human resource departments were one person who hired and fired and kept your records secured. Now they are empires of their own who seek to build a New Soviet Man who is a finely smoothed cog unable to give offense in acts, words or habits. No amount of research identifying ineffectiveness will roll back their power. Tip to Instapundit.

How can we not be living in a simulation when the expert discussing unhappiness in men and the scapegoating of masculinity is named "Carla Manly." Luckily I care a lot less about what other random people think about me than other random people would like, I suppose.

Oh FFS. Get a life Snopes.

Oh good grief, I got an email from Barnes & Noble Wednesday night letting me know I could get the Mueller Report for free on the Nook e-reader.  I guess Democrats won't be getting on with their lives any time soon. Please don't forget that despite Russia's efforts to help Trump in the 2016 election they were not for the purpose of getting Trump elected. They could read polling data as well as Hillary's campaign could. The Russian effort was clearly intended to hurt Hillary and weaken her presidency; and to sow chaos and mistrust of American democracy. They guessed wrong on the first part but the Democrats have expanded the latter effect by orders of magnitude, you must admit.

North Korea tested a short-range tactical missile. Yawn. This is nothing and counts on people hearing "missile test" and thinking it means a long-range nuclear missile. It does not. Also, North Korea wants Secretary of State Pompeo kept out of the talks? Well good luck with that. That demand might ensure Pompeo is the only person in on the talks on the American side. Well, him and Bolton. Oh, it might have been an anti-tank missile. It was certainly not a ballistic missile of any type.

I don't know if this record with Japan's F-35s is a normal thing for a new plane.

Russia's "little green men" are far from some revolutionary key to victory. Which is what I've been saying. Those LGM in Crimea spawned the entire "hybrid warfare" craze that is ridiculous. And yeah, as that author says, the European Union has done good work in bringing the ex-Soviet vassal states into Europe. Even though I have serious problems with the EU, I have admitted that the EU represents an improvement over the Soviet Union for those states.

"Beto's" rise in the hearts of progressives was as fast and spectacular as his fall. Pete should keep looking over his shoulder. It's a long time to the first primary.

Russia has completed the delivery of an order of Su-35 planes to China. Talk about selling the rope that will be used to hang Russia.

What a bunch of loons.

Iraq's prime minister is visiting Saudi Arabia after his visit to Iran. Good. The Saudi offer of money and relations will help secure a win in Iraq if it can reduce Iran's destructive influence in Iraq. It's about time Arab solidarity takes precedence over the Shia-Sunni divide.

Democrats must be thinking, "Et tu, Mueller?" I imagine Mueller is just one unhinged Twitter user away from being unable to eat a meal in peace in a restaurant. The investigation will continue--but not all on Democrats' terms.

This 360 vision system is way better than tiny, filthy vision blocks or sticking your torso out of a hatch.


I added this to this post as an update, but I like it enough to repeat it! After two years of telling us that the Mueller report would directly lead to Trump in prison, the shock to Democrats' world view has led them to ignore the report conclusion that there was no collusion and insist the truth is out there. Somewhere.

Does this count as collusion? How about this? Do Steele and Hillary have a lot of explaining to do? Trump's people did not collude with the Russians. That's good. Can Democrats say the same of their relationship with the Soviet Union during the Cold War? First two links via Instapundit.

Marine rotations to northern Australia continue to build up toward a full 2,500-troop Marine Expeditionary Unit. The deployment was started by the Obama administration.

Democrats are stunned that a 2-year investigation with unlimited money and staffed by Democrats who wrote the report ("19 lawyers and 40 investigators questioned some 500 witnesses worldwide. They issued 500 search warrants and 2,800 subpoenas") as slanted as they could were not able to make a case for Trump collusion with Russia during the 2016 election. The investigation should have been able to indict a glass of water with an 'R' on it with that kind of weight--plus media cheerleading--behind it.  For all the Democratic talk of "Sure, Trump didn't collude with the Russians--but they didn't tell the Obama administration about it!" developing, remember that the Obama administration already knew about it and neither told the Trump team about it nor did anything to stop the Russians. Oh wait, Obama did tell Putin to "cut it out." I guess not more should be expected, eh? Democrats rightly mock Republicans who claimed Obama was a secret Moslem literally born in Kenya. Democrats still claim Trump is a secret Nazi figuratively born in Russia. Do the math. Tips to Instapundit.

A better and more secure Army battlefield Internet is needed to enable my suggestion in Infantry magazine in how to preserve our infantry when they are just spam in a can moving to contact in an infantry fighting vehicle in support of the tanks.

By the end of World War II Canada had the fourth largest air force and the fifth largest fleet in the world. They deployed an entire army-sized unit to Europe. And in Afghanistan Canada was one of the few allies who fought and bled at our side. Today Canada is having problems buying 88 F-35s that replace their ancient F-18s to maintain even a rump air force. It won't be long before only the Winnipeg Jets jerseys have any fighter jets in Canada. What the Hell? Tip to Instapundit.

John Bolton is losing his edge when he comments on North Korea and the North Koreans offer but "mild criticism" for his statement.

If we don't solve our problems, events will resolve them.

I just bought new carpeting for my main floor. I got a really good deal on a good carpet. I've long joked that cat food makers should market their food not by animal type but by carpet coloring. If you have tan carpet you buy tan cat food. Because cats will throw it up, and they bizarrely run to the carpet rather than spit up on the tile floor where they started making alarming throat noises. And now I think I should have gotten coffee-colored carpet.

I'm sure data is a tool of the patriarchy, or something.

I still think the 2016 was essentially an uprising against the Republicans and Democrats who were not addressing their concerns and problems. Trump was an outsider who had a history of being a New York City Democrat, and he won the Republican nomination. Sanders was an outsider who was an "Independent" but was actually a socialist. And but for extreme collusion between Hillary, the Democratic party, and portions of the media, he would likely have defeated Hillary for the Democratic nomination. In 2020, assuming Trump wants to run, Trump will be the Republican nominee. And Bernie Sanders could very well win the nomination for 2020 even if the Democratic party is willing to go to even more extreme and blatant lengths to stop Bernie. Normally outsiders force the party they challenge to adapt to survive. Will both parties adapt to the clear frustration that blue collar voters are signaling with their votes since 2016?

Trump spoke to Haftar whose eastern Libyan forces are trying to take Tripoli from the UN-recognized government. It was a mistake to recognize that government which has way too many Islamists and jihadis in it. More and more Europeans are starting to realize that it was a mistake. And stiff-arming Haftar just gave Russia an opening to gain influence there. Hopefully we move on from the mistake. The Tripoli government has counter-attacked.

We are going forward to build a B-21 long-range stealth bomber to replace the B-2. Would it be possible to convert some of the B-2 bombers to stealth aerial refueling planes to cope with longer range air-to-air missiles that will be able to keep our non-stealthy aerial refueling planes too far away?

ISIL forces killed a couple dozen Syrian fighters in desert regions well west of the Euphrates River, which represents our effective "border" for action. ISIL forces have besieged government forces which provided the opportunity to ambush a relief column. Is this evidence of a post-caliphate insurgency?

Peacetime military discipline seems cruel and unusual until the wartime casualties demonstrate it is needed. And yes, despite the war on terror, few troops are in harm's way these days so the military at home is in peacetime mode. In my Army basic training, you'd be dropped for pushups for failing to completely button your uniform. Attention to detail was inculcated that way so you would not screw up with actually important details.  It is not cruel to prepare your troops to win and survive battle. I wish Marine Major General David Furness luck in this decision.

I appreciate discussions of how China could invade Taiwan. I put less emphasis on beaches and more on airborne assault in my 2005 scenario that I think holds up very well as a template. Although my scenario counts on a rapid assault while the Chinese aircraft and missiles are suppressing Taiwan's air defenses and command and control. And my scenario assumes that China can mobilize without alerting the Taiwanese (and America and Japan) too much and pushing them to mobilize. My scenario assumed invasion under cover of increased security readiness for the 2008 Olympics in China that would provide a soothing explanation for what was visibly taking place. Something else would have to be happening to convince Taiwan that Chinese military preparations were for something other than an invasion of Taiwan. Perhaps that is a fatal weakness of my scenario.

I've wondered if Russia will finally stop their self-destructive hostility to NATO in order to focus on deterring a rising Chinese threat to Russia's Far East and threats to Russian influence in Central Asia. And it occurs to me that American pressure under Trump might actually help Russia grasp that course of action. When Obama was president America bent over backwards to be "flexible" to Russia regardless of what Russia did, including interfering in our 2016 election with no push back. Which made it easy for Putin to conceal his appeasement of China by acting hostile to NATO. Now Russia pays a price for hostility to NATO. Might that price change Russia's policy?

"Yellow vest" protests continue in France.

Enjoy your jihad.

So aides didn't carry out some of Trump's directives? And that saved our republic according to the Democrats? Really? Trump didn't imprison the aides or take their families captive to compel obedience? Trump didn't disappear them or even fire them in favor of someone who would carry out the orders? That's all it took to stop a new Hitler from creating a dictatorship? Huh. Good to know. At this point I assume this kind of thing is business as usual in any White House and that the only unique thing is that the media publicizes it. Why do I say that? Because while I am not happy to have a president who is crude and has said rude things about women in addition to being unfaithful to his wife, Johnson was far cruder and both Kennedy and Clinton had far worse records with treating women and infidelity. The difference is that the media minimized, excused, or ignored the offenses of those Democrats. I admit I am looking forward to the post-Trump era for those issues. But I remain ecstatic that I'm not enduring the present waiting for the post-Hillary Clinton era.

Ah Hell. Eight blasts at Sri Lanka churches and expensive hotels on Easter.  There are more than 160 dead as of writing this. And two were carried out by suicide bombers. During the civil war there, suicide bombings were routine. So that fact doesn't automatically mean Moslem--who are about 10% of the population--jihadis did it. And if these are Islamic jihadis, is Pakistan's hand in this? Suspects have been arrested but no motives are disclosed as yet.

We have a winner in Ukraine. I have no idea what to make of this development. He barely speaks Ukrainian but voters are apparently completely frustrated about the glacial pace under the current president of the battle against corruption--which as I've noted is necessary for Ukraine to defeat Russia.

Isn't this ridiculous issue settled yet?